I think these 3 are tied-together in terms of the biggest issues surrounding this team as we enter the off season. If this team is serious about winning a chip, I think one and maybe two have to go. If we are comfortable playing musical chairs with several other eastern conference teams in making the ECF, then maybe we can stay status quo.
Brunson
I don’t think Brunson is going anywhere nor do I think he should despite some of his shortcomings so, lets focus on the other 2 heads of the 3 headed monster.
Kat
Positives: Elite offensive threat when guarded by the opposing teams center. Best 3 point shooter and rebounder on the team. Good passer, especially out of the high post when we have movement. Excellent floor spacer at the 5 for a team that wants to run 5-out offense (more on the 5-out when I get to Thibs)
Negatives: Poor defender, especially against the PNR which is the oldest and most used play in game. Very difficult to hide a bad defensive center, even more so when that center shares the court with another net-negative defender. Has bad knees and at 29, it's only going to get worse. Struggles to get back in transition especially when he shares the court with Mitch, and has to guard much quicker 4s.Speaking of 4s, Kat’s elite offensive game looks average when guarded by a wing that's quick enough to cut off his straight line drives and strong enough to bother him in the post. Thibs is a defensive minded coach who needs a rim protector so Kat at the 5 is not a good match for this coach. I don’t see this as a long term marriage.
Thibs
Positives: Offers stability. Will be entering year 7 with this team. Excellent pre-game coach. Does a really good job of scouting and preparing his teams for the opposition. Great floor raiser. Great relationship with Brunson, and seems to have the respect and trust of the whole team as they all play hard for him. With the exception of the 2022 season, we have improved each season. Has a great relationship with the front office and its always a positive when the coach and front office are on the same page.
Negatives: Thibs has always had the rep as a great defensive mind, and I’m not disputing that. When he has the right personnel, his teams are always among the elite defensive teams in the league. However, knowing you have a player like Kat that struggles guarding the pick n roll, I often wondered why he never tried to utilize some zone with Kat and Brunson on the court as a change of pace. We’ve seen other defensive minded coaches use a zone. Mike Malone, who sat next to Thibs when he was an assistant in NY, used some zone with Denver. When Adleman took over, he employed the zone and it helped him extend OKC to 7 games. Coach Spo also uses the zone as a way to hide Herro and or Robinson at times.
Thibs is very slow to adapt or adjust from the seat of his pants. He’s has been a little better this year, mainly in the playoffs. Also, he lacks creativity on the offensive end, especially when it comes to Kat. As I mentioned earlier, Kat is the best 3 point shooter on the team and yet, we never run any sets to spring him free for open looks. No flare-picks, no pin-downs, etc. Kat gets his 3’s by trailing the break or on offensive rebounds mainly Hart who throws it back out. Lastly, Kat at 5 would excel in a 5-out offense, yet, Thibs insisted on pairing him with Hart who voids all the spacing Kat can create. Teams have been putting their 5’s on Hart since January, and Thibs never adjusted in the reg season.
Kat, Brunson and Thibs do not maximize each other. Brunson and Kat stopped playing the 2-man game somewhere in January. Since then, they just take turns leading the offense. Brunson 1st quarter and Kat the 2nd. Thibs doesn’t maximize all of Kats tools on the offensive end and Kat doesn’t allow Thibs to maximize his defensive philosophy. So what does the front office do?
It's a good chance that all 3 will return next year. But, if 1 of Kat, Thibs and Brunson does not return next year, my vote would be that Kat is the odd man out. I’ve also seen some people comment that Rose and Rosas may not want to move Kat because they would be admitting their mistake by trading for Kat. I look at it the other way. This front office has shown to be savvy and usually one step ahead. I think Kat has more value on the trade market than Randle did and would have this summer especially when you consider he’s looking for a contract extension. Kat is locked up for 3 more years and is still an elite offensive big in the right system.