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Randle's Ceiling
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gradyandrew
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7/12/2021  4:11 AM    LAST EDITED: 7/12/2021  11:18 AM
The 2020-21 season began with a poll on a fan site asking: Which Knick will be an All-star? A. RJ Barrett B. Mitchell Robinson C. Obi Toppin D. Other. Following the slew of 2019-20 turnovers and offensive inefficiency, a move to the bench, trade, or even just paying the buy out were options extensively examined and written about.

Instead, Randle reinvented his game in 3 ways. First, with higher usage he became a better passer. In 587 more minutes accumulating 229 more assists against only 48 more turnovers. In points generated off assists (the other PGA) he jumped from 72nd in the league to 11th. His second area of improvement was in 3 pt shooting. Again, the raw totals: on 168 more 3 point attempts he converted 96 of them, or 57% on the margin. Third, he became a legit closer. With several go to moves,like a 3 from the wing off the dribble, a 12 foot jumper from the left free throw line extended, or his deadly almost-behind-the-backboard fadeaway from the right block, Randle became a dependable end of game option. (all stats from http://www.basketball-reference.com)

It seems unprecedented. Player's stats go up and down depending on minutes, roles,and growth. The NBA most improved players award is biased in that way with two categories of players dominating:developing players taking on increased roles (Siakam, Love, Giannis, Butler) and guys switching teams (Oladipo, Ingram). Players showing this much improvement in their second year on a team at Randle's age don't exist.

Coaching undoubtedly plays a part. After breaking his leg 14 minutes into his rookie career, he came back to start 20 games his second year only to serve as the fall guy for Byron Scott failing to win without Jason Kidd. His stint in New Orleans was marred by the cloud of uncertainty engendered by Davis's designs on LA, and his first season in New York was a disaster of near LarryBrownical proportions. Thibs being good at his job and a better roster help, but in no way can fully explain the biggest reason Randle has improved: moxie.

Energy. Determination. Courage. Know- how- just moxie. From the start Randle was determined to use that offhand to thump on anyone getting close, just enough to get room for a clear pass or shot. There was a vindicativeness about it; early fouls would be repaid late in the 4th with vicious elbows delivered as pay back. There was no fugazi screaming or even anger; just glares and hard play. Whatever fraternity of stars exist in the NBA,Randle remains outside of it. With the exception of KAT and DLo, his end of game interactions we're perfunctory. Following a bad road loss to Denver, the ecstatic Austin Rivers walked back to share his glory with his former teammates. Randle sees him, turns around and the n stops in his tracks as Rivers calls from behind. After a few words Randle turns to walk away with "whatever" written clearly across his face.

With 4 games to go, the off season is almost here. The question on everyone's mind should be, "Is Randle for real?" This dilemma gets to the heart of being a Knicks fan; the belief that Charles Smith will always miss that shot, Olajuwon's finger will be just long enough, we will never draft Luka, or Zion, or KAT and that McDyess, Stoudemire, Noah, and Porzingis will always be injured. That is that fate will always intervene to crush whatever dreams we might have, to the extent that nothing is more repugnant to educated knickista's than optimism. Because at the end of the day the only way to explain a player like Randle becoming a 26 year old MVP candidate is luck.

For the first time since Spreewell, the Knicks have stumbled onto a guy who can single handedly change the course of the franchise. After salivating on the upcoming free agency of opposing players for years, the Knicks need to recognize the danger lurking in their midst, if he enters, Randle will be one of the most desirable free agents on the market. A weak offseason followed by failure to build on this 's success early on next season could lead to a snowball effect of trading Randle at the deadline and setting the team back years.

That might sound good to you. Old habits die hard. It's easier to expect failure than hope for success. Luckily, Randle's got some moxie.

AUTOADVERT
EwingsGlass
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7/12/2021  7:55 AM
Nice write up, Andy. Interesting that you skip Melo/Stat and head back to Spree. I guess my fear is that the statistical bump is unsustainable. Those 18 foot fadeaway jumpers may be unguardable, but they are also highly inefficient. Feel like I have seen too many of those even though a guy like Barrett is open at the 3 pt line. Randle gets this motion sequence in his head that he is decidedly taking that shot.

I’d be happy to have him continues this career trajectory. I just wonder if the franchise’s trajectory would be be better suited to selling high and finish developing these youth.

You know I gonna spin wit it
knicks1248
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7/12/2021  8:37 AM
The better players you put around him, the better he will play.

Again it's hard for randle to get into the paint when the center he's playing next to can only dunk, there's just no room.

We need to put 4 shooters around randle

ES
gradyandrew
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7/12/2021  10:20 AM    LAST EDITED: 7/12/2021  11:39 AM
EwingsGlass wrote:Nice write up, Andy. Interesting that you skip Melo/Stat and head back to Spree. I guess my fear is that the statistical bump is unsustainable. Those 18 foot fadeaway jumpers may be unguardable, but they are also highly inefficient. Feel like I have seen too many of those even though a guy like Barrett is open at the 3 pt line. Randle gets this motion sequence in his head that he is decidedly taking that shot.

I’d be happy to have him continues this career trajectory. I just wonder if the franchise’s trajectory would be be better suited to selling high and finish developing these youth.

Thanks! I felt that Spreewell was the last surprise All Star we had. Melo cost a lot to get and Amare was never the same following his injury 30 games into his first season.

It's only your lack of faith that makes you wonder about selling high. You still need a Burning bush.

jskinny35
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7/12/2021  5:46 PM
knicks1248 wrote:The better players you put around him, the better he will play.

Again it's hard for randle to get into the paint when the center he's playing next to can only dunk, there's just no room.

We need to put 4 shooters around randle

You could put 4 Steve Novak's around Randle and it wouldn't be enough. He's not Lebron or Giannis where he can impose his will on opposing defenses by use of athleticism and high B-ball IQ. Even if I'm 100% wrong and Randle can somehow replicate his shooting and improved effort next season - you won't have the money to put the quality of players needed around him. He will get a max contract, Mitch and others will need to be resigned, etc... He's a piece but not the whole enchilada. If he would accept this, resign for a moderate contract - I would be all for keeping him. But he's paid his dues - deserves a big contract as he is our best player at the moment. In a year or two - RJ will be able to take over as ball handler/facilitator and we will have more opportunity to build around him.

Jmpasq
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7/12/2021  8:17 PM    LAST EDITED: 7/13/2021  6:51 AM
knicks1248 wrote:The better players you put around him, the better he will play.

Again it's hard for randle to get into the paint when the center he's playing next to can only dunk, there's just no room.

We need to put 4 shooters around randle


Trade Mitch in a package for Myles Turner. He fits the team very well ( Fits every team well). His shooting would really help the spacing.
Check out My NFL Draft Prospect Videos at Youtube User Pages Jmpasq,JPdraftjedi,Jmpasqdraftjedi. www.Draftbreakdown.com
SupremeCommander
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7/12/2021  8:25 PM
gradyandrew wrote:Thanks! I felt that Spreewell was the last surprise All Star we had. Melo cost a lot to get and Amare was never the same following his injury 30 games into his first season.

It's only your lack of faith that makes you wonder about selling high. You still need a Burning bush.

I personally don’t like the Spree comparison. No one ever doubted Spree could play. He made three all star games and then choked his coach. He never got enough credit after that.. him making the all star team with us was a surprise because everyone associated him with trying to kill his coach

Randle was a surprise all nba selection because a 20/10/5 season fell from the sky

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
Chandler
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7/12/2021  10:10 PM
SupremeCommander wrote:
gradyandrew wrote:Thanks! I felt that Spreewell was the last surprise All Star we had. Melo cost a lot to get and Amare was never the same following his injury 30 games into his first season.

It's only your lack of faith that makes you wonder about selling high. You still need a Burning bush.

I personally don't like the Spree comparison. No one ever doubted Spree could play. He made three all star games and then choked his coach. He never got enough credit after that.. him making the all star team with us was a surprise because everyone associated him with trying to kill his coach

Randle was a surprise all nba selection because a 20/10/5 season fell from the sky

I kind of agree with this. Spree was different. He was talented before he got here.

Randle had a reputation as low BBIQ before he got here. First year, he reinforced that. This year -- until the playoffs -- he cut down on dumb and he was great for us. Playoffs came around and he forgot a lot of that.

he's a Knick so of course i hope playoffs were jitters and he continues to improve his game. I think another star would help Randle immeasurably because teams are truly starting to plan around him when plan B is RJ (who i love but who is still 2 years away from being a real problem for opponents)

(5)(7)
Nalod
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7/13/2021  8:46 AM    LAST EDITED: 7/13/2021  8:47 AM
I think Spree as a “surprise” was more that we were able to acquire him with such a discount. Terry Cummings was well past his prime, Chris Mills was a good bench player, and Starks was very expendable given we had H20.
In return we got a very motivated allstar still in his prime.

Thus, Randle and Spree were both “surprise” talent injections. Both sort of fell in our laps.

jrodmc
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7/13/2021  8:47 AM
gradyandrew wrote:
EwingsGlass wrote:Nice write up, Andy. Interesting that you skip Melo/Stat and head back to Spree. I guess my fear is that the statistical bump is unsustainable. Those 18 foot fadeaway jumpers may be unguardable, but they are also highly inefficient. Feel like I have seen too many of those even though a guy like Barrett is open at the 3 pt line. Randle gets this motion sequence in his head that he is decidedly taking that shot.

I’d be happy to have him continues this career trajectory. I just wonder if the franchise’s trajectory would be be better suited to selling high and finish developing these youth.

Thanks! I felt that Spreewell was the last surprise All Star we had. Melo cost a lot to get and Amare was never the same following his injury 30 games into his first season.

It's only your lack of faith that makes you wonder about selling high. You still need a Burning bush.

Agree with the others about the bad Spree comparison. One of his All Star seasons with GS he averaged over 6 assists a game. No surprises there.

And when is the 'Melo cost a lot' thing going to dissipate? We gave away 4 nominal players (getting one of them back for nothing) and some really good draft picks for the only HOF player this franchise has seen since Ewing.

Nalod
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7/13/2021  8:53 AM
jrodmc wrote:
gradyandrew wrote:
EwingsGlass wrote:Nice write up, Andy. Interesting that you skip Melo/Stat and head back to Spree. I guess my fear is that the statistical bump is unsustainable. Those 18 foot fadeaway jumpers may be unguardable, but they are also highly inefficient. Feel like I have seen too many of those even though a guy like Barrett is open at the 3 pt line. Randle gets this motion sequence in his head that he is decidedly taking that shot.

I’d be happy to have him continues this career trajectory. I just wonder if the franchise’s trajectory would be be better suited to selling high and finish developing these youth.

Thanks! I felt that Spreewell was the last surprise All Star we had. Melo cost a lot to get and Amare was never the same following his injury 30 games into his first season.

It's only your lack of faith that makes you wonder about selling high. You still need a Burning bush.

Agree with the others about the bad Spree comparison. One of his All Star seasons with GS he averaged over 6 assists a game. No surprises there.

And when is the 'Melo cost a lot' thing going to dissipate? We gave away 4 nominal players (getting one of them back for nothing) and some really good draft picks for the only HOF player this franchise has seen since Ewing.

The Melo cost will dissipate when you let it go. LOL
Fact is the 4 nominal players themselves did not aggregate to Melo talent and few will argue with that.
Fact is the team was not able to finesse a roster to enhance Melo’s strengths and perhaps cover his short comings. In hindsight the team W-L record speaks for itself.
Amare fell off quick and JR smith as talented as he was could not mentally step up to match his physical gifts.
Melo was given unrealistic expectations because of the hype. He performed up to that standard but the Knicks did not.

gradyandrew
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7/13/2021  10:28 AM
Knicks didn't 'stumble' into Melo or Amare. The Knicks traded more or less fair value. Knicks had to tank a season by trading Crawford and Randolph to open up the space and then trade David Lee.

Sprewell was talented but volatile. The Knicks stumbled into a 4 year stretch without any problems. The lopsided nice of the trade tells It all- the Knicks got lucky.

No one at the time we signed Randle thought he would be an All NBA Player. Expectations we're for a borderline All Star. Instead, Knicks stumbled into a a top 15-20 guy in the league.

All the other guys lacked the ability to single handedly alter the course of the franchise.

The Knicks have hit a roughly once in 20 seasons stroke of luck. They shouldn't waste it.

gradyandrew
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7/13/2021  10:42 AM
The Melo cost will dissipate when you let it go. LOL
Fact is the 4 nominal players themselves did not aggregate to Melo talent and few will argue with that.
Fact is the team was not able to finesse a roster to enhance Melo’s strengths and perhaps cover his short comings. In hindsight the team W-L record speaks for itself.
Amare fell off quick and JR smith as talented as he was could not mentally step up to match his physical gifts.
Melo was given unrealistic expectations because of the hype. He performed up to that standard but the Knicks did not.

2020-21-The year of eating Crow

Billups was also more than salary cap filler. Knicks could have used the amnesty on Amare, signed Chandler, play the short season with Billups, then have 15 million in free agency for Felton, Kidd, Wallace and Priogini.

knicks1248
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7/13/2021  11:05 AM
Jmpasq wrote:
knicks1248 wrote:The better players you put around him, the better he will play.

Again it's hard for randle to get into the paint when the center he's playing next to can only dunk, there's just no room.

We need to put 4 shooters around randle


Trade Mitch in a package for Myles Turner. He fits the team very well ( Fits every team well). His shooting would really help the spacing.

Turner is the perfect solution..

ES
Nalod
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7/13/2021  11:17 AM
gradyandrew wrote:
The Melo cost will dissipate when you let it go. LOL
Fact is the 4 nominal players themselves did not aggregate to Melo talent and few will argue with that.
Fact is the team was not able to finesse a roster to enhance Melo’s strengths and perhaps cover his short comings. In hindsight the team W-L record speaks for itself.
Amare fell off quick and JR smith as talented as he was could not mentally step up to match his physical gifts.
Melo was given unrealistic expectations because of the hype. He performed up to that standard but the Knicks did not.

2020-21-The year of eating Crow

Billups was also more than salary cap filler. Knicks could have used the amnesty on Amare, signed Chandler, play the short season with Billups, then have 15 million in free agency for Felton, Kidd, Wallace and Priogini.

Chauns was bought out which was used on chandler.
Amare was here just one season and not quite at the level to even think of buying out. That was a big ass number also! Like 80mil!!!! Timeline is important.
Billups did have some left in the tank but not much.
What we all knew was Knicks went 5 years where PHX would go three. THat was the right number as it turns out.
If you give a guy max he has to play the minutes. True, we cooked him but you don’t give a guy 100mil then rest him 10 years ago. Now teams do.
We all saw the Amare signing as fragile and lord knows Dolan could not get insurance on that deal.
Blame Walsh? He never did shyt like that in Indy. Think what you know about donnies era and still Isiah had influence even after he left (Dolan wanted to bring him back!!!!). It stands to reason Dolan wanted Amare after the Lebron humiliation. One might say it was backchanneled as conditional to MElo wanting to be here?
So in a way (your welcome Jrodmc) the “Gain one Free agent and perhaps pay retail for an in prime star” was the order for the day. Or in other words add Amare to the trade and then evaluate.

In fairness to Melo, and to Amares first half season here it’s as a decent plan at that moment. Amare still had great hops and Add recently DPOY champ PreFlue Tyson and its a massive talented front court with MDA at the helm. Add JR smith whose talent was vast at a reasonable contract and perhaps we catch fire. Melo likley vouched for JR at some level s they were paired in Denver.

jrodmc
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7/13/2021  11:43 AM
Nalod wrote:
gradyandrew wrote:
The Melo cost will dissipate when you let it go. LOL
Fact is the 4 nominal players themselves did not aggregate to Melo talent and few will argue with that.
Fact is the team was not able to finesse a roster to enhance Melo’s strengths and perhaps cover his short comings. In hindsight the team W-L record speaks for itself.
Amare fell off quick and JR smith as talented as he was could not mentally step up to match his physical gifts.
Melo was given unrealistic expectations because of the hype. He performed up to that standard but the Knicks did not.

2020-21-The year of eating Crow

Billups was also more than salary cap filler. Knicks could have used the amnesty on Amare, signed Chandler, play the short season with Billups, then have 15 million in free agency for Felton, Kidd, Wallace and Priogini.

Chauns was bought out which was used on chandler.
Amare was here just one season and not quite at the level to even think of buying out. That was a big ass number also! Like 80mil!!!! Timeline is important.
Billups did have some left in the tank but not much.
What we all knew was Knicks went 5 years where PHX would go three. THat was the right number as it turns out.
If you give a guy max he has to play the minutes. True, we cooked him but you don’t give a guy 100mil then rest him 10 years ago. Now teams do.
We all saw the Amare signing as fragile and lord knows Dolan could not get insurance on that deal.
Blame Walsh? He never did shyt like that in Indy. Think what you know about donnies era and still Isiah had influence even after he left (Dolan wanted to bring him back!!!!). It stands to reason Dolan wanted Amare after the Lebron humiliation. One might say it was backchanneled as conditional to MElo wanting to be here?
So in a way (your welcome Jrodmc) the “Gain one Free agent and perhaps pay retail for an in prime star” was the order for the day. Or in other words add Amare to the trade and then evaluate.

In fairness to Melo, and to Amares first half season here it’s as a decent plan at that moment. Amare still had great hops and Add recently DPOY champ PreFlue Tyson and its a massive talented front court with MDA at the helm. Add JR smith whose talent was vast at a reasonable contract and perhaps we catch fire. Melo likley vouched for JR at some level s they were paired in Denver.

Fact is we got a HOF player for a sack of well-below-the-midline-of-the-league players. You may have a case arguing about Gallo, but he ended up being a really really really poor man's highly over paid Robert Horry-type. And even that's stretching things alot.

Other fact is, the "Melo trade rape" has mellowed (you're welcome, Nalod) into "we paid alot for Melo". Guess I should let it go. It just seems to resurface every few months... like an annoying boil.

It's a shame we had a talent in Melo that could drag us to the playoffs singlehandedly, but we couldn't get any real playoff level talents around him to get farther than we did.

jskinny35
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7/13/2021  4:07 PM
Doesn't matter if he was/is a HOF player if the team doesn't win in the end. Just prior to that trade - the Knicks were pretty young and exciting to watch... Wilson Chandler in particular seemed to mesh well with Amare. I also remember Denver did pretty well without him for several years and think we still could have added T. Chandler and maybe more with a deeper roster and more flexibility.
Philc1
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7/14/2021  5:16 AM
SupremeCommander wrote:
gradyandrew wrote:Thanks! I felt that Spreewell was the last surprise All Star we had. Melo cost a lot to get and Amare was never the same following his injury 30 games into his first season.

It's only your lack of faith that makes you wonder about selling high. You still need a Burning bush.

I personally don't like the Spree comparison. No one ever doubted Spree could play. He made three all star games and then choked his coach. He never got enough credit after that.. him making the all star team with us was a surprise because everyone associated him with trying to kill his coach

Randle was a surprise all nba selection because a 20/10/5 season fell from the sky

Spree was a borderline superstar when we got him for next to nothing. Grunfeld was really on a roll that offseason he got both Spree and Camby for aging guys and throw-in trash. Too bad Dolan made him fall on the sword because we were only the 8th seed.


Firing Grunfeld after making consecutive brilliant trades led to Layden/Isiah hell

Philc1
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7/14/2021  5:19 AM    LAST EDITED: 7/14/2021  5:20 AM
jskinny35 wrote:Doesn't matter if he was/is a HOF player if the team doesn't win in the end. Just prior to that trade - the Knicks were pretty young and exciting to watch... Wilson Chandler in particular seemed to mesh well with Amare. I also remember Denver did pretty well without him for several years and think we still could have added T. Chandler and maybe more with a deeper roster and more flexibility.

Looking back on it the Melo trade was nowhere near the highway robbery the Knick hating media made it out to be. Chandler had an average at best career. Gallo had a nice career but is basically a dime a dozen wing player whose main job is setting moving picks for Trae that never get called. Mozgov was an ok backup C. The only assets of value we gave up were picks

Nalod
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7/14/2021  8:02 AM
Philc1 wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
gradyandrew wrote:Thanks! I felt that Spreewell was the last surprise All Star we had. Melo cost a lot to get and Amare was never the same following his injury 30 games into his first season.

It's only your lack of faith that makes you wonder about selling high. You still need a Burning bush.

I personally don't like the Spree comparison. No one ever doubted Spree could play. He made three all star games and then choked his coach. He never got enough credit after that.. him making the all star team with us was a surprise because everyone associated him with trying to kill his coach

Randle was a surprise all nba selection because a 20/10/5 season fell from the sky

Spree was a borderline superstar when we got him for next to nothing. Grunfeld was really on a roll that offseason he got both Spree and Camby for aging guys and throw-in trash. Too bad Dolan made him fall on the sword because we were only the 8th seed.


Firing Grunfeld after making consecutive brilliant trades led to Layden/Isiah hell

You don’t remember why he was fired do you? He wanted to build an uptempo team. JVG was sulking he lost Oak and was not embracing it. He was a left over from Riley’s staff and Dolan did not let him take his assistants so Nellie kept JVG who was in Patricks ear. He stabbed Nellie in the back and got the gig. He brilliantly negotiated a 2mm per year 2 year extension that kicked in if Knicks made the finals. They did.
Dolan/Grunfeld were going to fire him. Not with that extension. NOt after the Nellie debacle. Grunfeld went instead.

Randle's Ceiling

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