https://www.spotrac.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/andrew-wiggins-15353/

Antetokounmpo will be eligible for a super-max extension this offseason.

Antetokounmpo’s super-max extension projected to be worth $254 million over five years. But that compensation is based on league-wide revenue in 2021-22, which will probably fall short of projections.

Players collectively get about half of Basketball Related Income each season. That supersedes stated salaries in contracts. The whole salary-cap system is designed for stated salaries to add up to about half of Basketball Related Income. But the overriding determinant is league-wide revenue.

Who knows where the 2021-22 salary cap will land? There are so many questions about revenue in the coming years.

If revenue is down, the league has two main options:

1. Set the salary cap artificially high. This would keep players’ stated salaries (cap hits) on track and create a smooth transition whenever revenue normalizes. In the meantime, owners would keep whatever percentage of players’ salaries is necessary to reach that 50-50 league-wide split.

2. Set the salary cap in line with expected revenue. Players would get paid roughly what their contracts state. But that amount would be lower on new deals.

Either possibility – though the second more than the first – could dissuade Antetokounmpo from signing long-term.

Raises in a multi-year contract or extension top out at 8% of the first-year salary. So, it’s important to sign when the first-year salary will be relatively high. If the salary cap skyrockets in future seasons, a player on even a max long-term deal could be stuck with salaries below the new max.

Even if the league keeps the salary cap artificially high, that will likely be a conservative figure. The cap was projected to rise to $115 million in 2020-21 and $125 million in 2021-22. Now, the talk of artificially propping up the salary cap is about maintaining the current level ($109.14 million).

But here are the ages of the other four starters in 2021-22, when Antetokounmpo’s next deal would begin:

Eric Bledsoe: 32
Wesley Matthews: 35
Khris Middleton: 30
Brook Lopez: 33

Replenishing will be difficult with draft picks consistently in the late 20s and no cap space.

*****

Here's the scenario. The Golden State Warriors have a long standing courtship of the Greek Freak. No huge secret here. No one is the league is really going to stop it since it would make Nike only so happy to have Greek Freak win a ring somewhere and out of Milwaukee. And if Nike is happy, the networks are happy, and the league is happy.

In order to make the money work for the Warriors (cap, tax, etc), they need to trade for Greek Freaks Bird Rights and get Andrew Wiggins off the roster. They'd have to move at least three first round picks, including this years lottery selection and the Minnesota 2021 first, as well. This helps the Warriors salary wise because high lottery picks also now carry middle class salary obligations which creates all kinds of **** for a team in the luxury tax zone ( Those players need time to develop on a team looking to win immediately and if they don't pan out, it's a struggle at times to trade them )

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/cap/

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/milwaukee-bucks/giannis-antetokounmpo-13328/

The Bucks will want to dump salary and tank if they move Greek Freak, under the reality that he tells them he won't sign an extension with them, even a Super Max. They can't move Middleton easily as that age/last year player option/AAV is going to be a problem. The Warriors won't easily move on from Draymond Green. He anchors their defense and has a 15 percent trade kicker. The Warriors are also hesitant to break up their core three and it's chemistry.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/milwaukee-bucks/cap/

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/milwaukee-bucks/khris-middleton-10864/

The Bucks don't want Wiggins. He doesn't give a **** most of the time/lacks a killer instinct/has no leadership qualities and he only helps the Bucks into a treadmill zone with Middleton, which is not the direction the team wants. The Bucks without Giannis will want to tank and tank hard. So the Bucks and Warriors need a THIRD TEAM.

Wiggins is a current CAA client and the Knicks will have/likely to have the cap space to absorb his deal.

What would the Knicks have to give up? A Tier 2 first round pick to the Bucks at minimum. (Think 6th to 8th overall as a range) Likely another heavily protected first round pick. Quick dump salary filler. Probably one of their lesser valued younger players like Frank N. Possibly a 2nd round pick to the Warriors. There would be a lot of moving parts but not Barret and not MRob.

How it helps the Warriors - If they are going into the luxury tax zone anyway, do it for Greek Freak, get Wiggins off the roster, push to keep contending immediately, getting Giannis' Bird Rights.

How it helps the Bucks - It doesn't. But it might be the best deal they can get. Greek Freak simply saying the money is not enough is something no one else can control. His power to say I will only sign an extension with X team is also the main leverage.

How it helps the Knicks - There's a lot to not like about Wiggins. But he's a young player with a real talent base. But again, he's lazy and not a leader and doesn't have that killer drive within him. You can build marketing around him and the Knicks could likely add him without losing Barrett and MRob. The argument being the team needs to get to the salary floor anyway and the odds of a Tier 2 pick plus another heavily protected first panning out won't give you the value of a Wiggins, even with his flaws.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/milwaukee-bucks/eric-bledsoe-6900/

The X Factor, oddly enough is Eric Bledsoe. The Bucks will want to dump his contract too. Taking Bledsoe would change the compensation level outgoing to the Bucks. Do I like Bledsoe? Not so much. Is he better than what the Knicks have right now to run the offense? Yes. Would I want that contract? Eh

TL/DR - Strong odds Greek Freak will be a Golden State Warrior. The Bucks and the Dubs will very likely need a third team involved to make a trade viable. The Knicks could put themselves in a position to be that team.

This is what long standing struggling teams like the Knicks have to do. Find a way to entrench as the third team or fourth team in a larger trade to try to reap some kind of value as their own resident assets are not viable on their own.

Thoughts?

TripleThreat wrote:

fwk00 wrote:Say what?

If the Bucks are basically forced to trade Greek Freak, they will want to move as much veteran salary off the books as possible. They will also want to stockpile picks. And they will want to "organically tank", meaning they want to move guys off the roster for draft assets and remove that players ability to help them win those few more games that will make a difference in future draft position.

I have doubts the Bucks would be able to trade Kris Middleton given the age/contract/AAV/last year player option. Wiggins will not push a team with just Middleton over the top, but he will probably help them win a few more games than a truly tanking/rebuilding team shouldn't win.

If Wiggins was a franchise player, he would have never been traded to the Warriors in the first place. There's a reason he was available. If he was a true franchise player, if he was traded to the Bucks, they'd want to keep him. But he's not.,

1) So keeping him wouldn't fit their rebuilding pathway

2) Because he has no value to the Bucks specific situation as a true franchise player, that doesn't mean he has no value period.

He's a young wing , in a league where wings are prized above all else, who can generate baseline counting stats.

The Knicks taking in Gordon Hayward or Chris Paul would be a trade where the Knicks are taking a salary dump. Assets would have to come with the player.

Wiggins is not in the same category. The Knicks will have to give something up for him. Odds are the Knicks aren't going to get a player with Wiggins established level of production, positional value, upside and youth for a 6th-8th pick in the draft. Maybe. But not likely. A Tier 2 pick plus a heavily protected first like protected 1-20 with a conversion clause isn't such a horrible price in my book. The Warriors might get a low 2nd rounder from the Knicks and might send the Knicks one of their fringe players. Frank N , at this point, is a sunk cost.

The Knicks do have cap space, but if you are going to spend your cap space to get to the salary floor, the argument is going to be made would you rather have another Randle/Gibson type offseason or spend that money on an established young wing who can be the focal point of your offense.

Bucks would want to dump Wiggins but he's not a pure salary dump.

One of the arguments against would be Thibs And Wiggins Version 1.0 didn't work out so well.

But when a team like the Knicks has been losing for a while now, no solution is going to be perfect.

Well, I guess with some, we can agree to disagree at times.

Sorry I was reacting to the presentation as much as the trade idea. I think you are presenting it as if we have an obligation to ensure Milwaukee and GS get served because we have the cap space to make it happen.

Yes, Wiggins puts up stats and the nightmare imprinted in all Knicks fans brains are the trades for stats whores who cash Dolan's checks and leave us all spitting and fuming.

I have nothing against Wiggins but he is nowhere on my radar as a difference maker for the Knicks. In fact I didn't want Durant or Kyrie or Lebron so I'm an idiot that way.

I [being in no position ever to make such a choice] would trade for Wiggins if he were sensibly priced. But where your trade fails for me is that his contracts would once again send us into cap space psychological disorder for another decade.

Last year Dotson, played while recovering from a shoulder injury and produced *as well* as the league average! Next year, all things being equal, he will be even better. NO, YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT - HE IS NOT WIGGINS. But. He will be affordable, he will earn his money, and he's a fan favorite - NOBODY hates on Dot. I'd take that to the bank before any albatross contract.

That said, A LOT of Albatrosses will be floated our way. We should only consider the ones in which we double or triple our investment.

I'm looking at Chris Paul's performance and saying NO.

If Milwaukee decides to implode, get me Middleton.

Philly will be deconstructing, lots to like there.

And so on.

In any case, I'll keep an open mind about Wiggins - if we get him. He seems ripe for the picking - if we want him.

Boston: Hayward to Warriors
Warriors: Wiggins (salary dump) and no 2 pick to Knicks
Knicks: Mitch to Warriors

Hayward would be a much better fit than Wiggins for the Warriors plus they dump Wiggins contract and can either re-sign Hayward or let him walk if they need to clear salary after a season. Boston dump Haywards salary and maybe frees them to go for Joe Harris, or some other shooter or C in free agency. Knicks could then draft LaMelo, Okongwu (to replace Mitch) and would have Wiggins as SF. Yuck!