EwingsGlass wrote:To be competitive, you seem to need two top 20 guys, maybe 2 top 10. And supporting cast.
To do this, you need to make the money work. To make the money work, you need the Bird Rights to nearly every key player on your roster. To achieve this, you need to draft those players. At most, with close to zero margin of error against your cap situation, a team could fit maybe one high profile heavily paid player in free agency coming in without his Bird Rights. But you are talking a team working close to perfectly against their cap for 2-3 seasons BEFORE even said elite player would hit free agency. You are asking a team to operate at a standard that is unrealistic to the actual marketplace environment.
You need to win in the draft and you need to do it over a period of several years back to back. Building through the draft is mind numbingly slow.
Chris Paul went to the Clippers. The trade involved basically 4 first round picks previously used at various stages by the Clippers. The asset base to build that Blake/Paul short run for the Clippers cost them about a decade worth of asset building. A decade is a long ****ing time.
The fastest the Knicks could covert to a contender is 6-7 years. With basically no margin of error.
Here is where the Knicks can help themselves. If the game ever gets back to "normal", we are looking at summer of 2022 at the earliest. Maybe. A big maybe. Never before in the modern NBA era has there been a more advantageous time to be a cash rich team. This is a massive advantage that can work to the Knicks benefit for the next few years. I'm not talking raw open cap space, I am talking the ability to outspend every other team outside of the roster/salary cap.
Also the mid to late 2nd round and UDFA, teams that can pour more resources into scouting/analytics/outreach will have a huge leg up where things like workouts and the interview process would help some fringe prospects move up the boards. There will be more untapped back end value potential for the Knicks to exploit. If they have the infrastructure and logistics to make it happen (there is a reason Leon Rose is hiring an entire calculator brigade for the team)
6-7 years. That's how long it will probably take. Thibs will last probably 2-3 years before getting fired. If the Knicks got elite free agents ( they won't but this is for the sake of discussion), and they didn't want Thibs as coach, he'd be fired. So I don't know why people are so hung up on Thibs. No matter who the Knicks hired, they would likely be fired in 2-3 years anyway.
I see it happen all the time on this board. If the Knicks do X, then Y, then Z, all in a span of 14 months, then they can be a contender a year! Yeah, no, it doesn't work like that. Look at all the teams who are successful now, then look deep into their personnel and the cost in assets to get to that point. You'll see roots that span 5 years, 8 years, a decade. It's a long painful process. No shortcuts.