BRIGGS wrote:I like the Heat at 100-1
I also like the Knicks at 500-1

You like throwing money away. It wouldnt matter if it was 100000000 to 1. I think Vegas has it right 30, 31 wins

nixluva wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:I like the Heat at 100-1
I also like the Knicks at 500-1

You like throwing money away. It wouldnt matter if it was 100000000 to 1. I think Vegas has it right 30, 31 wins

It's hard to predict how much our young talent will improve this coming season but they will no doubt be better. The big difference IMO will be better D, more Uptempo, better ball and player movement. Also I think these players are AMPED to get it on this year. All our Euros are coming off National Team play and that will have them ready to rock IMO. PLUS the East is not that strong.

I agree that defense will be essential for the Knicks to make the playoffs. With all the new players, new system, etc. hard for me to gauge how good the Knicks will be next season as well. I get the feeling that they will be more of a scrappy team, and the vibe will be more positive, without the negativity from mgmt.

nixluva wrote:It's hard to predict how much our young talent will improve this coming season but they will no doubt be better.

When it comes to total wins/losses, many formal projections from the gambling industry and sports media analysts and pundits are usually pretty accurate. There are, of course, a few outliers, there always are, but generally, projections into wins and losses, esp in the NBA, tend to be relatively consistent and predictable.

Generally what I see you do is take the baseline "exception" to most given situations, then try to sell is as a high percentage likelihood, then cover it up by deriding anyone who disagrees with you as not buying into your "optimism"

A lot of the core talent on the current Knicks are big men. Big men like Zinger and Hernangomez classically take longer to develop than other rookies at other positions. Also young big men tend to not get close calls that are critical to their level of production. Young guys like Ntilikina will tend to hit a wall at some point. That's pretty common for rookies.

The "Place Holder Test" is a good one and it usually focuses on the current state of any sports team.

A) How many guys on the Knicks current roster would make the current roster of every other team in the league?
B) How many guys on the Knicks current roster would make the 8-9 man rotation of every other team in the league?
C) How many guys on the Knicks current roster would NOT even make the 15 man roster of every other team in the league?
D) How many starters on the Knicks current roster would be displaced by 2nd and 3rd unit guys on every other team in the league?
E) How many guys on the Knicks current roster would displace the starters, relative to position and role, on every other team in the league?

The Warriors entire 2nd unit, Iguodala, Livingston, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, Patrick McCaw, how many of them would be instant starters on the Knicks? OK, that's a little unfair, that 2nd unit could probably make the playoffs in the battered East. But look at less successful teams. Even they would have players who would start over many Knicks despite being on their teams 2nd or 3rd units.

The Knicks do have some young guys with potential, but it's not like the rest of the league was static the past few seasons. Every other team is trying to improve as well.

It's unreasonable to expect such young players like Zinger, Hernangomez and Ntilikina to dramatically change the team in such a short period of time.

BRIGGS wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:I like the Heat at 100-1
I also like the Knicks at 500-1

You like throwing money away. It wouldnt matter if it was 100000000 to 1. I think Vegas has it right 30, 31 wins

Lol anyone can throw money away even going out to eat. 500-1 odds are attractive odds. Miami IMHO is the best risk reward play. Knicks highly speculative but worth a shot. Worst bet is Gs-- no upside?

In thinking about this further, Briggs - you're honestly probably better off putting that money into a lottery ticket- I have a hard time seeing Miami win the whole enchilada, and a $10 bet is getting you what, a $1,000? Honestly the odds should be greater all around- maybe 1 in a 1000.

The number to me that I would be all over is Phili. They are not winning 40 games. Thats laughable. Embiid as played like 35 games in 3 years. Simmons and Fultz are rookies. The only veteran they have is JJ Reddick who does little but shoot (which he's great at).

Also think the Cavs will be close to 60 wins. 52.5 is low when you factor in the new schedule which is much more spread out (less players rested).

Just my .2 from a guy who's done well over the years gambling on these types of #s. Most of the other totals looked pretty spot on. I think the Knicks (over), Cavs (over) and PHili (under) are excellent bets. Back in the day I usually make 3-4 bets on these, then use the winnings to bet on the playoffs

SupremeCommander wrote:this team is trash. maybe it develops. but you have to compare our roster to other rosters in the Conference... we're a bottom tier team unless we catch Linsanity in a bottle again. fortunately for us this draft is stocked. yay lotto balls

Totally disagree. This team has enough talent to be genuinely competitive in the East. Just removing DRose and Jennings Putrid Defense alone would allow for a few more wins. Knicks started last year 14-10 and lost at least 16 games by 5 or less. Many last shot losses. Key injuries to KP, LT and Noah stunted the team's competitiveness. They ended up with 31 wins. I'm confident they can do much better.

Subtract resistant head cases. Internal growth, some roster improvements, along with better chemistry and execution. I feel good about this team's ability to outperform the prediction.

Knickoftime wrote:

nixluva wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:this team is trash. maybe it develops. but you have to compare our roster to other rosters in the Conference... we're a bottom tier team unless we catch Linsanity in a bottle again. fortunately for us this draft is stocked. yay lotto balls

Totally disagree. This team has enough talent to be genuinely competitive in the East. Just removing DRose and Jennings Putrid Defense alone would allow for a few more wins. Knicks started last year 14-10 and lost at least 16 games by 5 or less. Many last shot losses. Key injuries to KP, LT and Noah stunted the team's competitiveness. They ended up with 31 wins. I'm confident they can do much better.

Subtract resistant head cases. Internal growth, some roster improvements, along with better chemistry and execution. I feel good about this team's ability to outperform the prediction.

I can't get over the fact over the last few years dispassionate projection systems nailed the Knicks win totals over the objection of fans.

I'm trying to figure out why they'd be so wrong this year.

They don't care about systems or head cases or chemistry. They've taken into account Rose and Jennings are no wonder longer here.

They have been pretty accurate. I don't think it's going to hold true this time. ESPN has the Knicks at 32 wins using RPM.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20225286/projected-records-win-totals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

12. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 32.0

A weak point guard rotation figures to keep the Knicks from making the playoffs even in a weakened East. The best RPM projection for any of New York's point guards belongs to rookie Frank Ntilikina (minus-1.9 points per 100 possessions). Second-year guard Ron Baker is projected to be 2.1 points worse than league average per 100 possessions, while veteran Ramon Sessions is at minus-2.9.

While it's logical to see how their predictions could turnout to be true, there's a chance that this team exceeds those predictions with just a few players producing better than they expect. We have so many young players with upside that I think this makes it very difficult to predict how much growth they'll make.

Last year there were SO MANY close games lost where better D or execution would've meant a win. I expect this team to be more motivated, more talented and more united.

BRIGGS wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:I like the Heat at 100-1
I also like the Knicks at 500-1

You like throwing money away. It wouldnt matter if it was 100000000 to 1. I think Vegas has it right 30, 31 wins

Lol anyone can throw money away even going out to eat. 500-1 odds are attractive odds. Miami IMHO is the best risk reward play. Knicks highly speculative but worth a shot. Worst bet is Gs-- no upside?

They have zero chance of winning a title, 500-1 , 10,000,000 to 1, 10,000,000,000 to 1, Better off buying power ball tickets.