http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/calm-cool-and-collected-how-jeff-hornaceks-keeping-the-suns-hot/

I asked Hornacek, who has consistently criticized mid-range jump shots which are the scourge of advanced metrics, if there is a divide in coaching circles on the fundamental, 18-foot jumper and its role in the NBA.

"I thinks so. Analytics people say you should never take those shots. But here's how I look at it.
"I looked at the 14 of 16 playoff teams last year their effective field goal percentage was right at 51 or higher. The two teams that weren't were Indiana and Memphis who were probably the two best defensive teams in the league. So the ultimate goal is, how do you get to that 51 percent?

If you look back to when we played, we didn't shoot a lot of threes. And if you look at the Utah teams I played on, we shot 50 percent from the field every year and we probably made 5 for 7 threes every game, so our effective field percentage probably was about 52 percent and we took a lot of mid-range jump shots. The goal is to look at the overall package and see how do you get to the overall number. If you've got a guy that can shoot 55 percent from those shots, why not shoot them? I don't think you can say it's black and white don't shoot those shots.

I think as coaches you also say, 'That's great, don't shoot those shots.' But then when you get in the playoffs, those are the shots you get because the defenses are so locked in, and you know how everyone plays, that those are the shots that come available, those 18-foot mid-range jump shots. And that's when you gotta make them. And if you haven't taken them all year long and then you're in the playoffs and you gotta make them, how's that going to work?"

Q&A: New Phoenix Head Coach Jeff Hornacek on the Rebuilding Suns and the Glory Days of the Jazz

JULY 17, 2013
by ZACH LOWE

The Suns, by any measure besides championship banners, are one of the most successful franchises in NBA history. They missed the playoffs just seven times from 1975-76 through 2009-10, with 19 50-win seasons in that span. But they’ve missed the playoffs three straight years now. Last season, the first of the post–Steve Nash era, might rank as the most depressing in the modern history of the team. Phoenix has since acquired Eric Bledsoe and Caron Butler in a three-team sign-and-trade that Phoenix hatched with Milwaukee and the Clippers, but they still figure to be among the dregs of the league as a new regime enters an earnest rebuild.

The Suns, like several others in this crazy summer of coaching hires, settled on a first-time head coach to helm that rebuild — Jeff Hornacek, the sweet-shooting combo guard who played a crucial role on the 1980s Suns and 1990s Jazz. Hornacek got the head job in Phoenix after a half-decade as an assistant in Utah, where he began as Andrei Kirilenko’s shooting coach. He spoke one-on-one with Grantland in Las Vegas this week about the challenges ahead.

Ryan McDonough, the team’s new GM, says you blew him away in the interview process with your preparation — your knowledge of the team’s roster, and your plans for how the team should play, especially on offense. So: What’s that offense going to look like after a year of struggling to find an identity without Nash?

I compare a lot of things to how it was when I actually played in Phoenix, back in the day, with Kevin Johnson. We got into the offense really quickly. If you can get it in the post, or penetrate and kick out, and get that early shot in the first seven seconds, or maybe eight seconds of the shot clock …

Wait, now. “Seven seconds” is a buzzword in Phoenix.

Yeah, yeah, let’s stick with eight. Statistics say in the first eight seconds, you shoot a much higher percentage. A lot of it depends on what kind of players you have. I knew they had [Goran] Dragic, who can fly up and down the court. And obviously now, with Eric Bledsoe, those two guys jell perfectly.

You guys were either no. 1 or no. 2 in midrange jumpers, and fell way below the league’s average in 3-point attempts. Do you want to change that?

Oh, yeah. We gotta get rid of that long 2. I’m not opposed to the middle jumper, in that 15- or 16-foot range. I think all but two teams that were in the playoffs, their effective field goal percentages were above 51 percent. If you can shoot 15-footers and shoot 52 percent, OK, you’re beating the average. You can’t totally discount those shots.

Especially as defenses get better, sometimes they are the only open shots you can get. You’re not getting a corner 3 or a dunk every time down against the Pacers.

Right. We’ll take a look at it all. But the ones we have to eliminate are the ones that are within 4 or 5 feet of the 3-point line. Those are low-percentage shots worth two points.

What kind of system are you going to lean on? Every team is a pick-and-roll team to some degree, but what kind of stuff will serve as the bread and butter — side pick-and-rolls, the old Utah flex, Rick Adelman corner stuff, or something else?

You have to get a read on your players and what suits them the best. When you look at the game today, with the rule changes — that’s why everyone is going to some sort of pick-and-roll. The rules are, you can’t touch that guy with your hands. It’s not like the old days, where you could hand check.

You played with some guys who were pretty good at that handchecking thing.

Right, right. It gives such an advantage to the point guards out there, if you have a good one. And we have two of them. If you can execute well, you’re going to get good shots.

Everyone wants to know if you can really play Goran and Eric together defensively — if Goran can really defend shooting guards. But look across the league: How many teams have backcourts that really scare you, in terms of giving up size?

You’re gonna hit those teams.

Sure. But it’s not like you’re scared to play smaller against Mike Conley and Tony Allen, or Tony Parker and Danny Green, right? There aren’t that many Kobes out there.

Right. There will be some mismatches you have to worry about, but we think that with the tag team of Goran and Eric — Eric’s got the bulldog strength, so that if we want to try to keep a bigger guard off the post, maybe he’s better suited to that. We can tag-team a great player like a Kobe. We can put someone on him for a little bit, and then stick another guy on him and change the look, and have someone with full energy on him at all times.

Will one of them emerge as the “point guard” — the one who really handles the ball 75 percent of the time? Or will it be an even split? Does it even matter anymore?

No. Sometimes it might shake out one way or another, but our vision is to be a good rebounding team, where we can just get the ball and hit the first guy you see. And in our set offense, depending on the plays we run, maybe it’s Goran one time with Eric off the ball, but Eric goes on the ball for another set of plays. We’ll have to get a feel for it.

Bledsoe’s pick-and-roll stats were off-the-charts awesome last season, to the point it surprised me. Will that change as he plays 35 minutes, a lot against starters, and maybe as teams don’t go under screens against him? Is he ready to be a starter?

We’ll find out. When we got Kevin Johnson from Cleveland, he was a backup point guard. And then Cotton [Fitzsimmons] throws him in to be a starter, right alongside me, and he just took off. Eric has been champing at the bit for at least a year now, maybe two, to show he can be that guy that plays 35 minutes a game.

Is there room in the league for posting up anymore? Will we see Marcin Gortat get 10 post touches a game?

Absolutely. If you can find a guy that can post up inside and be effective, whether it’s a center, power forward — heck, you could put a point guard down there. It’s the same concept of creating some sort of double-team that allows you to have a four-on-three. Whether we do that from the post or with pick-and-rolls — we’ll figure that out.

Yeah, it seems like teams use post-ups more now as a way to create passes rather than shots.

You can use it that way, depending on who it is. I mean, when you watch Miami play, you can stick LeBron there in the post and let him dictate what’s going to go on. But you do hope your good post-up players offensively are good passers. Then you can really do different things.

Here’s a very important question: You’re wearing a polo shirt right now with the new black-and-orange Halloween-style Suns color scheme. Do you like that, or do you miss the blue/purple?

It’s great, it’s great. [Laughs.]

Oh, come on. You miss the blue. You can admit it. Or is it purple?

It’s purple. We actually had a uniform in Utah that was pretty much the same colors as these — almost a black and copper. And I really liked them! I don’t know if the people liked them, but I really did.

You missed the 50-40-90 club as a player by tenths of a percentage point multiple times — like you shot 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3-point range, and something like 89.5 percent from the foul line. Do you care about that?

I never really thought about it playing. It seemed like I was one free throw away from 90 percent for five or six years. But I was just playing the best I could.

What about in retrospect? It would haunt me. I’d never get over it.

I guess it’d have been nice, because how many guys are in that club? They’re all great players. Oh well.

Now that you’re inside, what have you learned about the Suns training staff and their black magic?

I knew nothing about these guys before I came!

I know Aaron Nelson [the team’s head trainer] is your brother-in-law. But now you’ve seen the whole operation.

You know what they do? They just get on guys and work them every day, and guys buy into what they’re doing. My brother-in-law has worked on my knee, and it’s not fun. It hurts a little bit, but you feel so much better. And when players put their trust in those guys to work on them, they might make them a little sore, it might hurt a little bit, but the next day, they feel better.

You guys hired Mike Longabardi from Boston. I assume this means you’ll run the Tom Thibodeau defense that swept the league — trying to keep all pick-and-rolls toward the sideline, on one side of the floor, and dropping your big men back into help position instead of having them trap up high like Miami does?

I always like to keep the ball on the side. When I played point guard, and I got stuck on the side, it was always more difficult for me than when I could get around and into the middle of the court — where I could see everything. There are so many more things that become available when you get into the middle. That’s what I like to do, and we hired Mike, who has run Boston’s defense the last three years. We’ve looked at a lot of things they do, I’ve watched them, and I see a lot of things I like to do. So we’ll go that way, and if things don’t work out, we’ll adjust.

Do you like small ball? All the big teams did really well in the playoffs this season.

The difference is that when you’re small on the defensive end, when teams break you down, you can really get in trouble. You have no real shot-blockers, and the rebounding gets tough. Obviously, I think there’s a use for small ball.

You mentioned effective field goal percentage before. People tell me you’re a numbers guy. What numbers do you like to use?

I’m a math guy. I was an accounting major, so I like numbers. I look at all that stuff, and I use it as kind of background information. When you look at a five-man lineup, sometimes that’s helpful, and sometimes it’s not. You don’t know who they’re playing against, for instance. The one thing I really like to show players, which I don’t think a lot of them actually look at, is just simple shot charts. Where do they shoot the ball well from? And where don’t they?

You’d be surprised how many times I ask a player, “If I make a play for you to shoot from the free throw line, that’s a great shot for you, right?” And the guy will say, “Oh, yeah, absolutely.” And then I’ll pull out the sheet and show him he only shot 34 percent last year from that spot. I don’t think they understand where they shoot well from.

stanleybostitch wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:This is an old article, not a lot of new topics (Tried to see if Nix posted it) I thought it was interesting because it showed that Hornacek is into advanced stats, but looks at other info as well. Good article.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/calm-cool-and-collected-how-jeff-hornaceks-keeping-the-suns-hot/

I think as coaches you also say, 'That's great, don't shoot those shots.' But then when you get in the playoffs, those are the shots you get because the defenses are so locked in, and you know how everyone plays, that those are the shots that come available, those 18-foot mid-range jump shots. And that's when you gotta make them. And if you haven't taken them all year long and then you're in the playoffs and you gotta make them, how's that going to work?"

Horny gets it. I'm really excited that we have a coach that'll instill a winning culture, system, and be here a very long time. Our very own Pop.

I agree. Hornacek seems intellectually curious, which is a great quality for a coach to have. Isn't set in his ways.

EnySpree wrote:Basketball is basketball I always say. No such thing as the modern game. You play to win. You don't pay to satisfy what the media is trying to pitch. You don't copy cat the team that won the most that year. You get a good group together and you play to the strengths of the team. The end.

Not quite, I think the rules dictate the style of play. The NBA wanted a change from the slowed down, half court, physical play. They wanted to make the game more Euro. Remember they started giving techs if you even look at the ref wrong after a BS call.

knicks1248 wrote:

EnySpree wrote:Basketball is basketball I always say. No such thing as the modern game. You play to win. You don't pay to satisfy what the media is trying to pitch. You don't copy cat the team that won the most that year. You get a good group together and you play to the strengths of the team. The end.

Not quite, I think the rules dictate the style of play. The NBA wanted a change from the slowed down, half court, physical play. They wanted to make the game more Euro. Remember they started giving techs if you even look at the ref wrong after a BS call.

Whatever you say but you play to the strengths of your team. We won't have Rose chucking 3s... we won't have Noah chucking 3s.... whatever we do well that's what we should be doing.

The last time the nba changed the rules on defense was 2004... no rule has changed in the nba that forces teams to shoot 3 pointers exclusively.... this is just the jargon that's been going around since the warriors hired Kerr.

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:This is an old article, not a lot of new topics (Tried to see if Nix posted it) I thought it was interesting because it showed that Hornacek is into advanced stats, but looks at other info as well. Good article.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/calm-cool-and-collected-how-jeff-hornaceks-keeping-the-suns-hot/

I asked Hornacek, who has consistently criticized mid-range jump shots which are the scourge of advanced metrics, if there is a divide in coaching circles on the fundamental, 18-foot jumper and its role in the NBA.

"I thinks so. Analytics people say you should never take those shots. But here's how I look at it.
"I looked at the 14 of 16 playoff teams last year their effective field goal percentage was right at 51 or higher. The two teams that weren't were Indiana and Memphis who were probably the two best defensive teams in the league. So the ultimate goal is, how do you get to that 51 percent?

If you look back to when we played, we didn't shoot a lot of threes. And if you look at the Utah teams I played on, we shot 50 percent from the field every year and we probably made 5 for 7 threes every game, so our effective field percentage probably was about 52 percent and we took a lot of mid-range jump shots. The goal is to look at the overall package and see how do you get to the overall number. If you've got a guy that can shoot 55 percent from those shots, why not shoot them? I don't think you can say it's black and white don't shoot those shots.

I think as coaches you also say, 'That's great, don't shoot those shots.' But then when you get in the playoffs, those are the shots you get because the defenses are so locked in, and you know how everyone plays, that those are the shots that come available, those 18-foot mid-range jump shots. And that's when you gotta make them. And if you haven't taken them all year long and then you're in the playoffs and you gotta make them, how's that going to work?"

Is there anyone in the league who shoots close to that percentage on midrange shots? I don't think so. It's a strange answer. Regardless, I'm happy that he's more informed about the metrics than many coaches are, or at least he seems to be.

I'm pretty sure Hornack knows what he's talking about. You're taking his comment a bit too seriously.
Clearly he was being a bit over the top to make a point. There are players who are pretty efficient from 15' in. I'm sure it's rare since the midrange game is a lost art. One article I saw said Durant and Ibaka both shot 49% from 15-19'.

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:This is an old article, not a lot of new topics (Tried to see if Nix posted it) I thought it was interesting because it showed that Hornacek is into advanced stats, but looks at other info as well. Good article.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/calm-cool-and-collected-how-jeff-hornaceks-keeping-the-suns-hot/

I asked Hornacek, who has consistently criticized mid-range jump shots which are the scourge of advanced metrics, if there is a divide in coaching circles on the fundamental, 18-foot jumper and its role in the NBA.

"I thinks so. Analytics people say you should never take those shots. But here's how I look at it.
"I looked at the 14 of 16 playoff teams last year their effective field goal percentage was right at 51 or higher. The two teams that weren't were Indiana and Memphis who were probably the two best defensive teams in the league. So the ultimate goal is, how do you get to that 51 percent?

If you look back to when we played, we didn't shoot a lot of threes. And if you look at the Utah teams I played on, we shot 50 percent from the field every year and we probably made 5 for 7 threes every game, so our effective field percentage probably was about 52 percent and we took a lot of mid-range jump shots. The goal is to look at the overall package and see how do you get to the overall number. If you've got a guy that can shoot 55 percent from those shots, why not shoot them? I don't think you can say it's black and white don't shoot those shots.

I think as coaches you also say, 'That's great, don't shoot those shots.' But then when you get in the playoffs, those are the shots you get because the defenses are so locked in, and you know how everyone plays, that those are the shots that come available, those 18-foot mid-range jump shots. And that's when you gotta make them. And if you haven't taken them all year long and then you're in the playoffs and you gotta make them, how's that going to work?"

Is there anyone in the league who shoots close to that percentage on midrange shots? I don't think so. It's a strange answer. Regardless, I'm happy that he's more informed about the metrics than many coaches are, or at least he seems to be.

I'm pretty sure Hornack knows what he's talking about. You're taking his comment a bit too seriously.
Clearly he was being a bit over the top to make a point. There are players who are pretty efficient from 15' in. I'm sure it's rare since the midrange game is a lost art. One article I saw said Durant and Ibaka both shot 49% from 15-19'.

Found this from an article on Chris Paul who is a mid range demon.

Top Five Shooters From This Area, 2014-15, Minimum 100 Attempts:

1. Chris Paul, 53 percent
2. Jarrett Jack, 49 percent
3. Anthony Davis, 49 percent
4. Pau Gasol, 49 percent
5. Gordon Hayward, 47 percent

In addition to being the most accurate volume shooter in the league from the right elbow, he also leads the NBA in made shots from this zone. In other words, he blends volume and efficiency in ways nobody else can touch.

Oh, and he’s nearly as good from the other side.

CP_Elbow2_1152

Top Five Shooters From This Area, 2014-15, Minimum 100 Attempts:

1. David West, 55 percent
2. Chris Paul, 51 percent
3. Nikola Vucevic, 51 percent
4. Al Horford, 48 percent
5. Pau Gasol, 48 percent

Everyone else on this list is a catch-and-shoot guy because, generally speaking, it’s easier to convert jumpers with your feet set than it is off the dribble. Paul’s putting up the same numbers with the added burden of creating his own shot.

When you compare Paul’s volume and efficiency numbers strictly against his peer group of shot-creating guards, he stands out even more.

Most Unassisted Midrange Field Goals (Midrange FG%):

1. Chris Paul, 232 (51 percent)
2. Monta Ellis, 153 (42 percent)
3. John Wall, 140 (40 percent)
4. Russell Westbrook, 135 (39 percent)
5. Jarrett Jack, 130 (45 percent)

No matter how you slice it, Paul is having a phenomenal year. He’s getting assists like Magic, draining midrange jumpers like Dirk, getting steals like Gary Payton, and he’s not even mentioned in most MVP conversations.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/monster-of-the-midrange-dont-sleep-on-chris-pauls-deadly-elbow-jumper/

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:This is an old article, not a lot of new topics (Tried to see if Nix posted it) I thought it was interesting because it showed that Hornacek is into advanced stats, but looks at other info as well. Good article.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/calm-cool-and-collected-how-jeff-hornaceks-keeping-the-suns-hot/

I asked Hornacek, who has consistently criticized mid-range jump shots which are the scourge of advanced metrics, if there is a divide in coaching circles on the fundamental, 18-foot jumper and its role in the NBA.

"I thinks so. Analytics people say you should never take those shots. But here's how I look at it.
"I looked at the 14 of 16 playoff teams last year their effective field goal percentage was right at 51 or higher. The two teams that weren't were Indiana and Memphis who were probably the two best defensive teams in the league. So the ultimate goal is, how do you get to that 51 percent?

If you look back to when we played, we didn't shoot a lot of threes. And if you look at the Utah teams I played on, we shot 50 percent from the field every year and we probably made 5 for 7 threes every game, so our effective field percentage probably was about 52 percent and we took a lot of mid-range jump shots. The goal is to look at the overall package and see how do you get to the overall number. If you've got a guy that can shoot 55 percent from those shots, why not shoot them? I don't think you can say it's black and white don't shoot those shots.

I think as coaches you also say, 'That's great, don't shoot those shots.' But then when you get in the playoffs, those are the shots you get because the defenses are so locked in, and you know how everyone plays, that those are the shots that come available, those 18-foot mid-range jump shots. And that's when you gotta make them. And if you haven't taken them all year long and then you're in the playoffs and you gotta make them, how's that going to work?"

Is there anyone in the league who shoots close to that percentage on midrange shots? I don't think so. It's a strange answer. Regardless, I'm happy that he's more informed about the metrics than many coaches are, or at least he seems to be.

I'm pretty sure Hornack knows what he's talking about. You're taking his comment a bit too seriously.
Clearly he was being a bit over the top to make a point. There are players who are pretty efficient from 15' in. I'm sure it's rare since the midrange game is a lost art. One article I saw said Durant and Ibaka both shot 49% from 15-19'.

It's questionable whether that should be considered efficient. You're talking 98 points per 100 shots. Now, you also occasionally but not often get fouled on midrange shots. At best, you probably get fouled enough to bring that up to league average efficiency (106.4 points per 100). Since you rarely get fouled on mid range shots, I'd think a player has to at least shoot a little above 50% for it to be considered a good shot.

The Warriors pretty much shut down the Cavs 3pt role players. Those guys were rolling along at a high efficiency before the Finals. So the Cavs had to do to plans B and C.

	                Four Factors		
                Pace    eFG%	TOV%	ORB%	FT/FGA	ORtg	PTS
CLE (4-0)	86.0	.546	7.9	24.5	.147	120.4	103.5
DET (0-4)	86.0	.537	10.1	18.4	.189	110.5	95.0
                        Four Factors		
                Pace	eFG%	TOV%	ORB%	FT/FGA	ORtg	PTS
CLE (4-0)	91.2	.573	11.4	31.0	.160	122.9	112.0
ATL (0-4)	91.2	.515	13.1	22.8	.194	109.1	99.5
                        Four Factors		
                Pace	eFG%	TOV%	ORB%	FT/FGA	ORtg	PTS
CLE (4-2)	89.3	.570	11.8	22.8	.231	118.5	105.8
TOR (2-4)	89.3	.486	12.3	17.6	.188	101.2	90.3
                        Four Factors		
                Pace	eFG%	TOV%	ORB%	FT/FGA	ORtg	PTS
CLE (4-3)	92.0	.504	12.5	28.4	.210	109.1	100.4
GSW (3-4)	92.0	.512	13.0	24.2	.185	108.5	99.9