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The real fallout of the Durant move - Lockout next summer
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crzymdups
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7/5/2016  10:56 PM
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2650148-frustration-with-westbrook-sent-durant-fleeing-opens-door-to-trouble-for-nba

Teams in this league sell either excellence or hope, but what hope is there to sell when one franchise can hoard four of the league's best players?

Everything in the NBA's system is designed to thwart this outcome: the draft, the salary cap, the luxury tax, the rookie scale, Bird rights—all were created to disperse elite talent and ensure the viability of small-market teams.

The system just collapsed before our eyes, the result of a perfect storm of anomalies. An unprecedented salary-cap spike—fueled by a new $24 billion television deal—gave the Warriors room to add a fourth superstar. Durant's discontent created the path.

Everyone acted in his best interest, and it's hard to blame those people. But let's be clear: This runs counter to everything the league has worked to establish since creating the salary cap in 1984.

"The system is f--ked up," said a longtime team executive from a large market.

This is surely not what league officials had in mind when they staged a 149-day lockout in 2011, at a cost of $480 million.

That labor battle was driven by small-market owners who were apoplectic at the migration of superstars to the glamour markets and the creation of a LeBron James-led superteam in Miami.

Marc Serota/Getty Images
They pushed for a hard salary cap but settled for a draconian luxury tax that was supposed to deter wild spending or star-hoarding. Commissioner Adam Silver even created an Orwellian new term for it: "player sharing"—the idea that elite players would be more evenly dispersed.

When the Thunder traded James Harden to Houston in 2012—a deal triggered by fear of the luxury tax—league officials hailed it as proof the system was working. The Thunder still had three stars (Durant, Westbrook, Serge Ibaka), while Harden had been "shared" with the Rockets.

When Greg Monroe chose Milwaukee last summer, and LaMarcus Aldridge chose San Antonio, their choices were cast as a victory for competitive balance.

The system sort of worked, briefly. Now, not at all. Now the luxury tax is virtually obsolete with the exploding cap.

League officials can blame themselves, for failing to anticipate the effects of a new TV deal they knew was coming. Safeguards could have been built into the collective bargaining agreement in 2011, when the owners had the players on the ropes at the bargaining table.

Silver tried to get control over the system in 2015 by pitching the idea of "cap smoothing"—a gradual introduction of the new revenue, to create a more gradual rise in the salary cap—but the players union rejected it outright.

Union leaders and player agents preferred the chaos of a $24 million spike in the cap. They got it.

Great article by Beck - the above is just an excerpt. It's worht reading the whole thing.

Several of us have said that the insane salaries this summer would fuel a lockout next summer. Who knew it'd really be one signature move - KD to the Warriors?

But if you think about it, and as Beck mentions, the last lockout was predominantly about the Heatles forming a super team. This next one will likely be about the Warriors super team.

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nixluva
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7/5/2016  11:08 PM
I've been saying this for years but the Owners are the problem with the NBA. They keep forcing these CBA's and every time they make a change is backfires. Max Contracts and MLE's it doesn't matter, they always have problems because they will stab each other in the back to get a top player. How can you legislate that out of their behavior? I think they need to loosen up a bit rather than clamp down.

They should spend more on the D League and player development. Make it a real minor league and open up the rosters just a bit so you can more freely use the D League. Also allow teams to be able to spend more on Euro contract buyouts.

crzymdups
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7/5/2016  11:15 PM
nixluva wrote:I've been saying this for years but the Owners are the problem with the NBA. They keep forcing these CBA's and every time they make a change is backfires. Max Contracts and MLE's it doesn't matter, they always have problems because they will stab each other in the back to get a top player. How can you legislate that out of their behavior? I think they need to loosen up a bit rather than clamp down.

They should spend more on the D League and player development. Make it a real minor league and open up the rosters just a bit so you can more freely use the D League. Also allow teams to be able to spend more on Euro contract buyouts.

This really came down to the decision to not do cap smoothing - slowly raising the cap. (The players would still get the extra money, but divided evenly, there wouldn't be cap money going to just a few guys).

The Player's Association rejected it and here we are.

Frankly - the league being robbed of five years of OKC vs GSW and robbed of a competitive GSW vs CLE finals... it sucks for everyone. It's bad for business. The other owners are gonna be livid.

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nixluva
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7/5/2016  11:22 PM
crzymdups wrote:
nixluva wrote:I've been saying this for years but the Owners are the problem with the NBA. They keep forcing these CBA's and every time they make a change is backfires. Max Contracts and MLE's it doesn't matter, they always have problems because they will stab each other in the back to get a top player. How can you legislate that out of their behavior? I think they need to loosen up a bit rather than clamp down.

They should spend more on the D League and player development. Make it a real minor league and open up the rosters just a bit so you can more freely use the D League. Also allow teams to be able to spend more on Euro contract buyouts.

This really came down to the decision to not do cap smoothing - slowly raising the cap. (The players would still get the extra money, but divided evenly, there wouldn't be cap money going to just a few guys).

The Player's Association rejected it and here we are.

Frankly - the league being robbed of five years of OKC vs GSW and robbed of a competitive GSW vs CLE finals... it sucks for everyone. It's bad for business. The other owners are gonna be livid.

IMO the fact that KD went to GS doesn't really upset the league balance as much as people think. GS was already a 73 win juggernaut and I really don't think that adding KD changes that much. Other teams were able to add players and supposedly improve the only team that got dogged was OKC. So the balance of power hasn't really changed much. It's still GS and the Cavs and I actually think the Cavs can still beat GS. They haven't addressed how they stop Lebron and Kyrie, they just added another shooter, which IMO isn't necessarily the answer to their problems.

arkrud
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7/5/2016  11:27 PM
They need to get read of max contracts and cap.
This will make superstar salaries much bigger and the rest of the players much smaller.
Which is exactly reflecting the share in winning.
And owners again will be able to afford only 1-2 superstars.
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
Knickoftime
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7/5/2016  11:28 PM
Waitaminute...

The Heat were so bad for NBA business their 4 seasons together led directly to a new 9 year TV contract tripling revenue.

There's a big disconnect here...

crzymdups
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7/5/2016  11:29 PM
nixluva wrote:
crzymdups wrote:
nixluva wrote:I've been saying this for years but the Owners are the problem with the NBA. They keep forcing these CBA's and every time they make a change is backfires. Max Contracts and MLE's it doesn't matter, they always have problems because they will stab each other in the back to get a top player. How can you legislate that out of their behavior? I think they need to loosen up a bit rather than clamp down.

They should spend more on the D League and player development. Make it a real minor league and open up the rosters just a bit so you can more freely use the D League. Also allow teams to be able to spend more on Euro contract buyouts.

This really came down to the decision to not do cap smoothing - slowly raising the cap. (The players would still get the extra money, but divided evenly, there wouldn't be cap money going to just a few guys).

The Player's Association rejected it and here we are.

Frankly - the league being robbed of five years of OKC vs GSW and robbed of a competitive GSW vs CLE finals... it sucks for everyone. It's bad for business. The other owners are gonna be livid.

IMO the fact that KD went to GS doesn't really upset the league balance as much as people think. GS was already a 73 win juggernaut and I really don't think that adding KD changes that much. Other teams were able to add players and supposedly improve the only team that got dogged was OKC. So the balance of power hasn't really changed much. It's still GS and the Cavs and I actually think the Cavs can still beat GS. They haven't addressed how they stop Lebron and Kyrie, they just added another shooter, which IMO isn't necessarily the answer to their problems.

No offense, but it's not about what you think - it's about what the other 29 NBA owners think. And they are not happy.

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Knickoftime
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7/5/2016  11:29 PM
arkrud wrote:They need to get read of max contracts and cap.
This will make superstar salaries much bigger and the rest of the players much smaller.
Which is exactly reflecting the share in winning.
And owners again will be able to afford only 1-2 superstars.

Player's Association will never go for it.

They don't want that. Why would they?

SwishAndDish13
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7/5/2016  11:31 PM
I read the whole article, interesting read. The first part about KD was needed but rather ridiculous. They broke down the wording in the article, which was clearly written by the agency ripping him as it is full of corporate jargon. "Growth and evolve" very popular but used out of context here. From a career perspective, this move is actually the opposite as he is clearly looking good to take a step back. Some of his gripes included actually being needed to produced. Pretty ridiculous that anybody good but into it as growth and development.

The part on the broken system was very interesting. The system is def broken. The list of broken parts of the system is so long. Nixluva brought up a great one which is the owners.

Another oversight was the players. This woulda been nearly impossible to foresee, but players are no longer interested in being challenged. The Heat did start this but during the lockout they didn't even fix the obvious mechanism that made it possible (the tax loophole) that was ridiculous it makes most teams non-competitive in FA right off the bat. The Heat probably wouldn't have happened if not for the loophole. Those guys wanted max money and the loophole allowed it. It needed to be closed immediately. It was consistently exploited for years out of the lockout.

The thing with KD is on another level. It is actually well timed bc the league will need to take a long hard look at the system and fix things in the inevitable lockout. I don't know how you fix it. Durant took a monster effective paycut to go to GS and a lesser role. The system is partially build under the assumption that the players are competitive and will want the most money they can get and want to be seen as the alpha. That assumption is no longer valid.

crzymdups
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7/5/2016  11:31 PM
Knickoftime wrote:Waitaminute...

The Heat were so bad for NBA business their 4 seasons together led directly to a new 9 year TV contract tripling revenue.

There's a big disconnect here...

Well, yeah, it's a bunch of pouting billionaires. No one said they had to be logical about this.

I don't know if they're gonna care that they are making money hand over fist on all this.

It's about being shown up by the Warriors and Joe Lacob - who the other owners all despise for his arrogance - saying things like "we're light years ahead of other teams", etc.

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SwishAndDish13
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7/5/2016  11:39 PM
Knickoftime wrote:Waitaminute...

The Heat were so bad for NBA business their 4 seasons together led directly to a new 9 year TV contract tripling revenue.

There's a big disconnect here...

That's looking at it in a vacuum a bit. Advertisers paying more and networks wanting the rights were the primary drivers for the TV deals exploding rather than ratings from the Heat. TV deals are up exponentially across all sports. There wasn't really a way to forecast the way technology would change preferences and the TV deals.

crzymdups
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7/5/2016  11:41 PM
SwishAndDish13 wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:Waitaminute...

The Heat were so bad for NBA business their 4 seasons together led directly to a new 9 year TV contract tripling revenue.

There's a big disconnect here...

That's looking at it in a vacuum a bit. Advertisers paying more and networks wanting the rights were the primary drivers for the TV deals exploding rather than ratings from the Heat. TV deals are up exponentially across all sports. There wasn't really a way to forecast the way technology would change preferences and the TV deals.

Yeah, I think the rise of social media and the ease of streaming video on phones/tablets helped the rise, too. The NBA is the most Vine-able and Tweet-able sport out there.

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Knickoftime
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7/5/2016  11:41 PM
crzymdups wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:Waitaminute...

The Heat were so bad for NBA business their 4 seasons together led directly to a new 9 year TV contract tripling revenue.

There's a big disconnect here...

Well, yeah, it's a bunch of pouting billionaires. No one said they had to be logical about this.

I don't know if they're gonna care that they are making money hand over fist on all this.

It's about being shown up by the Warriors and Joe Lacob - who the other owners all despise for his arrogance - saying things like "we're light years ahead of other teams", etc.

Yeah, I'd take the post-game over Durant from the league's owners and execs with a grain of salt.

People like to bitch to the media, about any and all things. It's just the way of things now. I wouldn't necessarily conclude a lockout is coming over it.

Knickoftime
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7/5/2016  11:45 PM
SwishAndDish13 wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:Waitaminute...

The Heat were so bad for NBA business their 4 seasons together led directly to a new 9 year TV contract tripling revenue.

There's a big disconnect here...

That's looking at it in a vacuum a bit. Advertisers paying more and networks wanting the rights were the primary drivers for the TV deals exploding rather than ratings from the Heat. TV deals are up exponentially across all sports. There wasn't really a way to forecast the way technology would change preferences and the TV deals.

I didn't say the new TV deal was solely responsible. But the NBA really beginning with 2010 has expanded into an almost 365 sport. The draft and free agency is now building tons of interest in the league.

Heat won 2 titles in a sport that has been traditionally dominated by a handful of teams.

If nothing else, they didn't hurt.

At all.

crzymdups
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7/5/2016  11:50 PM
Knickoftime wrote:
crzymdups wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:Waitaminute...

The Heat were so bad for NBA business their 4 seasons together led directly to a new 9 year TV contract tripling revenue.

There's a big disconnect here...

Well, yeah, it's a bunch of pouting billionaires. No one said they had to be logical about this.

I don't know if they're gonna care that they are making money hand over fist on all this.

It's about being shown up by the Warriors and Joe Lacob - who the other owners all despise for his arrogance - saying things like "we're light years ahead of other teams", etc.

Yeah, I'd take the post-game over Durant from the league's owners and execs with a grain of salt.

People like to bitch to the media, about any and all things. It's just the way of things now. I wouldn't necessarily conclude a lockout is coming over it.

The owners were still salty about Lebron to Miami a year after it happened. This isn't gonna be about splitting the pie - it's gonna be about restricting player movement... owners have to be able to see either hope for the future or the illusion of competing. OKC was a standard-bearer for a well run franchise. For them to be defeated by free agency, losing the face of their team, losing him to a big market team... this is the stuff that will sit in the craw of the other owners. Particularly if the Warriors are arrogantly prancing all over the court again next year. And, of course, on the flip side, the players want that hard fought free agency and will be loathe to give it up or accept restrictions on it. I fear it'll be a war. I said this as soon as the TV deal hit and the cap jumps were announced. Silver is smart, but both sides in this one are going to be extremely salty.

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arkrud
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7/5/2016  11:52 PM
Knickoftime wrote:
arkrud wrote:They need to get read of max contracts and cap.
This will make superstar salaries much bigger and the rest of the players much smaller.
Which is exactly reflecting the share in winning.
And owners again will be able to afford only 1-2 superstars.

Player's Association will never go for it.

They don't want that. Why would they?

People usually cannot save themselves.
That why Unions in general are cancer of the society.

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
CrushAlot
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7/5/2016  11:52 PM
arkrud wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:
arkrud wrote:They need to get read of max contracts and cap.
This will make superstar salaries much bigger and the rest of the players much smaller.
Which is exactly reflecting the share in winning.
And owners again will be able to afford only 1-2 superstars.

Player's Association will never go for it.

They don't want that. Why would they?

People usually cannot save themselves.
That why Unions in general are cancer of the society.

That depends on where you work and who your employer is.
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
crzymdups
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7/5/2016  11:53 PM
Knickoftime wrote:
SwishAndDish13 wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:Waitaminute...

The Heat were so bad for NBA business their 4 seasons together led directly to a new 9 year TV contract tripling revenue.

There's a big disconnect here...

That's looking at it in a vacuum a bit. Advertisers paying more and networks wanting the rights were the primary drivers for the TV deals exploding rather than ratings from the Heat. TV deals are up exponentially across all sports. There wasn't really a way to forecast the way technology would change preferences and the TV deals.

I didn't say the new TV deal was solely responsible. But the NBA really beginning with 2010 has expanded into an almost 365 sport. The draft and free agency is now building tons of interest in the league.

Heat won 2 titles in a sport that has been traditionally dominated by a handful of teams.

If nothing else, they didn't hurt.

At all.

They didn't hurt the league revenue or popularity - but they pissed off the owners.

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Knickoftime
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7/5/2016  11:56 PM
arkrud wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:
arkrud wrote:They need to get read of max contracts and cap.
This will make superstar salaries much bigger and the rest of the players much smaller.
Which is exactly reflecting the share in winning.
And owners again will be able to afford only 1-2 superstars.

Player's Association will never go for it.

They don't want that. Why would they?

People usually cannot save themselves.
That why Unions in general are cancer of the society.

I don't understand that answer. Doesn't address anything said.

People know how to count. The player's have no motivation to give divide their revenue by giving more of it to a small handful of players.

Knickoftime
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7/6/2016  12:04 AM
crzymdups wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:
SwishAndDish13 wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:Waitaminute...

The Heat were so bad for NBA business their 4 seasons together led directly to a new 9 year TV contract tripling revenue.

There's a big disconnect here...

That's looking at it in a vacuum a bit. Advertisers paying more and networks wanting the rights were the primary drivers for the TV deals exploding rather than ratings from the Heat. TV deals are up exponentially across all sports. There wasn't really a way to forecast the way technology would change preferences and the TV deals.

I didn't say the new TV deal was solely responsible. But the NBA really beginning with 2010 has expanded into an almost 365 sport. The draft and free agency is now building tons of interest in the league.

Heat won 2 titles in a sport that has been traditionally dominated by a handful of teams.

If nothing else, they didn't hurt.

At all.

They didn't hurt the league revenue or popularity - but they pissed off the owners.

I think they have a got a problem if they plan on locking out the players over wanting to pay the superstars more.

The real fallout of the Durant move - Lockout next summer

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