http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

jose calderon is ranked 17th in the league among point guards
arron afflalo is ranked 28th in the league among shooting guards
melo anthony is ranked 6th in the league among small forwards
kris porzingis is ranked 10th in the league among power forwards (as a rookie!)
robin lopez is ranked 24th in the league among centers

if you take the sum of the rankings (85) and divide that sum by 5, the result is 17, or one slot away from the knicks 18th best record. and, according to this measure, we have clear issues at shooting guard and center, while the point guard position is not quite pulling its weight.

in terms of overall ranking in the league, and worth pondering:

jose calderon ranks 83rd among all players who play over 24 minutes a game
arron affalo ranks 132nd among all players
melo anthony ranks 20th
kris porzingis ranks 41st
robin lopez ranks 112th

this means that our starting lineup's center of gravity in terms of average is around 78th among all starting players. since there are 150 starters in this league, the knicks collective rank is below average, as is-- not coincidentally-- presently reflected in their won-loss record.

so, we can see that the real plus minus is an accurate gauge of a player's effectiveness, and we need an upgrade at shooting guard first and foremost. i know this seems counterintuitive to some if not most-- because we can all see that calderon is just godawful on defense-- but in terms of overall negative impact, afflalo is more detrimental to the team.

I like those numbers generally, but I would say with this team they are only useful over stretches. Like after that Bull's blowout and the Knicks won 2 vs. Atl, beat the Heat, only lose to the Spurs... that stretch. Who were the biggest +/- when that run started? Things like that.

Here's an eyeball test also... Afflalo is better than his numbers. He's inconsistent, and has games where he's just kinda there, but might hit some big shots at the end. However there are times he really steps up and elevates his play and in turn the team, and I think that is just part of the depth and balance. When one guy doesn't have it going another steps up. When there is synergy you can have two average +/- but night in night out one of them is really helping the team.

The only two trends I really see are KP is best when Melo is on the floor. Maybe its confidence, chemistry.. he seems to play with no pressure when dad is around and impressive. When Melo is off the floor KP presses more, tries harder, forces things, etc. The other trend is that KP is better playing next to a center. Not to make this about KP, rather different line ups. And as for KP I see none of these as slights, just part of the learning/maturation process.

markvmc wrote:Surprising (to me anyway) that Lopez fares so poorly by that stat.

considering he plays an average of 25 minutes a game, fisher is minimizing whatever detrimental effect lopez may be having, since lopez's rank essentially has him as a bench player, hence close to bench-like minutes.

similarly and commensurately, calderon averages 27.8 minutes which is more or less in keeping with his ranking, especially since he is a 17th-ranked point guard on an 18th-ranked team (in terms of record).

HOWEVER

afflalo averages 33.1 minutes, which is not commensurate with his 28th-place ranking. in other words, if the knicks were a 28th-ranked team in the league, afflalo would merit starting minutes, but since the knicks are 18th, according to this measure, fisher should be looking to reduce afflalo's minutes accordingly, to around 24 minutes a game.

meanwhile, galloway is presently playing 24.1 minutes a game-- just barely starter's minutes essentially-- and is ranked 26th among shooting guards in the league. he is a better defender than afflalo AND he's a better playmaker/ball sharer according to his usage rate and assist rate.

again, if i were in fisher's shoes, i would try to find a way to reduce afflalo's minutes to closer to 28 minutes and raise galloway's to around 29 minutes, virtually the same five minutes redistributed. if fisher can't abide making galloway the outright starter, it may be prudent to rotate galloway in sooner and leave him out there longer. the only rub is galloway's ability to score midrange.

dk7th wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

markvmc wrote:Surprising (to me anyway) that Lopez fares so poorly by that stat.

Surprising and bizarre. Look at some of the players ranked ahead of him. According to this metric, we should trade for Tyson Chandler. Most of the runs other teams went on this season happened with Lopez on the bench.

I have nothing against advanced stats, can be quite useful, but Im flushing these stats when it comes to what Lopez is doing, or not doing on the floor.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

context is important in this discussion. first, i think you have to consider the number of minutes chandler is playing. he is essentially a bench player at 22 minutes a game, and though these 3 minutes may not seem like a big difference, in a basketball game of 48 minutes they might loom larger than you think. secondly, chandler is playing on a phoenix team that is currently ranked 28th in terms of won loss record. he would not make any difference, and in fact may be worse for the knicks if he were playing 25 minutes a game like lopez is.

essentially the only glaring weakness in phil jackson's acquisitions combined with fisher's utilizations is arron afflalo.

if i am fisher, i would try to get galloway playing with the other four starters earlier in the game, and try to get his confidence up. his slump may be related to confidence... i don't know. it could garner more positive results having galloway out there earlier with the starters. for instance last night we could have used galloway more on chris paul and have calderon try and keep up with reddick.

Fair enough. I see other names on the list ahead of Lopez, at the same time, some of them couldn't have gotten the better of some of the best big men in the league, like Lopez has this season. I weigh these stats vs what I see on the floor, and I have a hard time reconciling them.

Lopez got abused by Jordan, a good deal of it in transition from Chris Paul heaves, passes. Calderon wasn't doing anything to slow him down. Lopez got frustrated, and you know the rest. I agree I would have put in Galloway a lot sooner, if only to do a better job of transition D on Paul.

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:why are we looking at RPM when we have WS48 which is a much more respected stat?

Yeah, if you Google "problems with Real Plus Minus" you'll need a few days to read about all its problems.

The biggest problem is that the coefficients are usually statistically insignificant - or in lay terms, there's too much error in the measurement to say that a player's impact is different from zero unless the RPM is very high or very low and based on a huge sample.

what is very high or very low? and what is a large-enough sample? i look at the numbers and they dovetail pretty well with what i am seeing on the court over half a season. also, i could not find a list of win share per 48 to look at for comparison's sake. do either of you have a link for me to examine?

mreinman wrote:

dk7th wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:why are we looking at RPM when we have WS48 which is a much more respected stat?

Yeah, if you Google "problems with Real Plus Minus" you'll need a few days to read about all its problems.

The biggest problem is that the coefficients are usually statistically insignificant - or in lay terms, there's too much error in the measurement to say that a player's impact is different from zero unless the RPM is very high or very low and based on a huge sample.

what is very high or very low? and what is a large-enough sample? i look at the numbers and they dovetail pretty well with what i am seeing on the court over half a season. also, i could not find a list of win share per 48 to look at for comparison's sake. do either of you have a link for me to examine?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_leaders.html

this is better. Just sort by ws48

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

dk7th wrote:okay thanks. ball game is startng but i want to say that even a cursory glance and the ws48 comes to pretty much the same conclusion.

maybe ... not sure what the conclusion was.

Rolo has a low WS48 but that is because he started the season so terrible

dk7th wrote:it's about the coach learning a player's value to the team and the minutes earned based on that value. the only player in the starting lineup that has a disproportionate amount of minutes awarded-- but not earned based on performance-- is afflalo.

I'm not a big afflalo fan at all so you are preaching to the choir.