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My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.

dk7th
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8/18/2015 8:33 AM

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Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.

by free agency win shares alone the knicks should be at 27 wins and that's not including melo's win shares. bad and sulking melo gets you to 29, typical melo gets you 32-34 wins... and i am not even factoring in grant and kp6.

a buying in melo + grant and kp6 playing well gets you another 4-6 wins i should think.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%

Bonn1997
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8/18/2015 8:44 AM

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dk7th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.
by free agency win shares alone the knicks should be at 27 wins and that's not including melo's win shares. bad and sulking melo gets you to 29, typical melo gets you 32-34 wins... and i am not even factoring in grant and kp6.
a buying in melo + grant and kp6 playing well gets you another 4-6 wins i should think.

How did you arrive at 27?

holfresh
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8/18/2015 8:52 AM

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Bonn1997 wrote:
dk7th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.
by free agency win shares alone the knicks should be at 27 wins and that's not including melo's win shares. bad and sulking melo gets you to 29, typical melo gets you 32-34 wins... and i am not even factoring in grant and kp6.
a buying in melo + grant and kp6 playing well gets you another 4-6 wins i should think.

How did you arrive at 27?

dk7th
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8/18/2015 9:16 AM LAST EDITED: 8/18/2015 9:17 AM

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Bonn1997 wrote:
dk7th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.
by free agency win shares alone the knicks should be at 27 wins and that's not including melo's win shares. bad and sulking melo gets you to 29, typical melo gets you 32-34 wins... and i am not even factoring in grant and kp6.
a buying in melo + grant and kp6 playing well gets you another 4-6 wins i should think.

How did you arrive at 27?

i looked up the free agents we acquired and added their win shares, and then subtracted the win shares of the players we lost, and it netted a positive. i can't find the post where i initially did the research, but i was impressed with lopez and o'quinn on their win shares.

marijuana was not involved.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%

knicks1248
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8/18/2015 9:29 AM

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dk7th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
dk7th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.
by free agency win shares alone the knicks should be at 27 wins and that's not including melo's win shares. bad and sulking melo gets you to 29, typical melo gets you 32-34 wins... and i am not even factoring in grant and kp6.
a buying in melo + grant and kp6 playing well gets you another 4-6 wins i should think.

How did you arrive at 27?
i looked up the free agents we acquired and added their win shares, and then subtracted the win shares of the players we lost, and it netted a positive. i can't find the post where i initially did the research, but i was impressed with lopez and o'quinn on their win shares.
marijuana was not involved.

so coaching and chemistry don't play a factor?

ChuckBuck
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8/18/2015 9:40 AM

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Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.

What draft pick? Lost it in the Bargnani trade.

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/Knicks.htm

franco12
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8/18/2015 9:56 AM

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ChuckBuck wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.
What draft pick? Lost it in the Bargnani trade.
http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/Knicks.htm

you missed the [sarcasm][/sarcasm]

franco12
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8/18/2015 9:59 AM

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the way I look at this squad is its a 30 win team that can be +/- 10 games.

If players stay healthy, if they meld, if the coach does well - it could be a 40 win team.

If players aren't healthy, don't meld and the coach struggles- it could very well be a 20 win team.

I don't foresee a (likely) scenario that puts us out of either range.

Nalod
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8/18/2015 10:33 AM

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knicks1248 wrote:
dk7th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
dk7th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.
by free agency win shares alone the knicks should be at 27 wins and that's not including melo's win shares. bad and sulking melo gets you to 29, typical melo gets you 32-34 wins... and i am not even factoring in grant and kp6.
a buying in melo + grant and kp6 playing well gets you another 4-6 wins i should think.

How did you arrive at 27?
i looked up the free agents we acquired and added their win shares, and then subtracted the win shares of the players we lost, and it netted a positive. i can't find the post where i initially did the research, but i was impressed with lopez and o'quinn on their win shares.
marijuana was not involved.
so coaching and chemistry don't play a factor?

Only if your connecting the dots. You don't like fish. Phil likes Fish. That's all you need to know until the season starts.
Nothing changes until Phils Facts throws him under the bus. Until then, there are no games until end of Oct.

Nalod
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8/18/2015 10:35 AM

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ChuckBuck wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.
What draft pick? Lost it in the Bargnani trade.
http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/Knicks.htm

Don't yah just hate it, or just have to laugh you get all excited about a "gotcha" moment, maybe even tried to find a cute youtube video to drive home the point, then someone reminds you this is just entertainment, not law school?

VCoug
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8/18/2015 10:47 AM

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Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.

Now the joy of my world is in Zion How beautiful if nothing more Than to wait at Zion's door I've never been in love like this before Now let me pray to keep you from The perils that will surely come

ChuckBuck
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8/18/2015 10:56 AM

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Nalod wrote:
ChuckBuck wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.
What draft pick? Lost it in the Bargnani trade.
http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/Knicks.htm
Don't yah just hate it, or just have to laugh you get all excited about a "gotcha" moment, maybe even tried to find a cute youtube video to drive home the point, then someone reminds you this is just entertainment, not law school?

Haha?

Bonn1997
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8/18/2015 10:58 AM

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franco12 wrote:
ChuckBuck wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:My suspicion was that the advanced stats would generally call this a 30ish win team. So this 25 prediction isn't that far off - it's just the low end of the range. At least we have our draft pick.
What draft pick? Lost it in the Bargnani trade.
http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/Knicks.htm
you missed the [sarcasm][/sarcasm]

Yeah, sarcasm

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