Not sure about percentages but here's how I feel:
If Okafor or Russell happen to be there, he's gotta take either guy and I'd be ECSTATIC (esp. if it's Russell). 100%.
If it's Porzingis (I feel a strong 50% or better -- Phil was in attendance for the Vegas workout and it was reported we just brought him in for a private one too), I'll be very happy -- I agree, guys like this don't grow on trees. MAD TALL with impressive skills, liked what I've heard in interviews and the recent measurements are better than what we all thought even a week ago -- 7'2" 230. I can work with that. I think if Melo's healthy and we succeed in bringing in some other good frontcourt FA additions, we could incorporate Zinger at a decent pace, then more by the end of the season and in a year or two, he could be someone very special for us. There will be pressure, sure, but nowhere near the pressure to "be the man." Just come in, be ready to contribute and show continued improvement in the weight room and on the court and we'll all be OK...Also agree -- don't boo the pick but I fear people will. Kid will need to ignore that nonsense and stay strong. It's Melo who I'm more concerned about than the dopey fans who show up (again, present company excluded of course if any of you guys plan on attending
) -- if Melo decides to take to Twitter after the selection and does anything other than embrace the pick and welcome Zinger (or whoever we take), I'll be annoyed as all get out!!! Don't trash the pick like you did with Shumpert when you really wanted Josh Selby, ya dope.
Show leadership for a change, dammit!
I'll also be very happy if we decided to make a sensible trade (say 50% on this too, despite what Phil said recently about there being a 5% chance we move the pick--not sure I believe that), esp. if Towns, Okafor and Russell are all off the board (which I expect). I like Porzingis and would be OK with taking him but if we turned around and traded whoever we pick at 4 to PHX for 25-year-old Eric Bledsoe and a good player at 13, preferably a big man (namely Turner or Kaminsky) or repackaged pick 13 and assets to move up a couple of slots to get either of those two bigs, I'd be very happy with that as well. Bledsoe would be great here--he'd instantly become one of the top PGs in the East -- I like his game, his athleticism, his two-way skills, his contract is reasonable when you really consider his ability and where the state of the cap is going next year and like that he's still young. I'd be OK with this deal -- Bledsoe + Turner or Kaminsky may very well be > Porzingis. I'll say that with a straight face. Time will tell.
And of course, I'd be happy with a quality 2nd round pickup or two -- two guys I'd love to see us add: Joe Young and Pat Connaughton, two additions that would go a long way in strengthening our backcourt as a whole. Opportunistic SL invites based on the best of the leftovers after 60 will put a big smile on my face as well.
About the only thing I will question is Willie Cauley-Stein, esp. at 4. Here's my few concerns with Stein: (1) He's an attractive player for his size and defense, no doubt, but I look at him as a role player. At 4, I want either a crack at a star or value back in a sensible trade. Not really looking for a role player there. If for instance we went out and got a Jordan Bachynski (who's 7'2" 250 btw) and a Khem Birch for shot-blocking/additional size/rebounding, shored up the rebounding even further with guys like Monroe, Alexis Ajinca and/or Lavoy Allen plus added a good shutdown wing defender or two (say Thansis, an Eric Griffin and/or say Pat Connaughton in the 2nd round, a strong/athletic/gritty/hardnosed/talented SG -- reminds me of a young Dan Majerle) to go along with Galloway who's already here and pretty good defensively -- I mean that's a pretty good defensive nucleus right there. We bring in guys like that (all doable), I don't see the pressing need for WCS. You can never have enough defense, granted, but if we can identify and come up with a couple of key defensive pieces elsewhere, I'd like to see them thinking bigger & go for more of a homerun with the draft pick myself. Plus, what if we added Porzingis at 4 or a Myles Turner on a trade-down a little lower -- those guys are both adept shot-blockers -- they just happen to be legit offensive threats as well. Can't really say that about WCS. (2) When Phil first took over, didn't he call the Melo/Amar'e/Chandler frontcourt "clunky"? Well what does he think Melo/Monroe/Stein would be? Isn't that the same thing basically, more or less? Why openly criticize what Donnie/Grunwald came up with and then turn around and replicate essentially the same thing? And ya know what, it never really worked anyway...Let's go at it a little differently this time. And (3) I'm sorry but this latest bit of info. concerning Stein's ankle is a legit concern for me.