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Article: Mudiay - Are his China stats misleading?
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mreinman
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5/31/2015  5:24 PM
http://www.csnphilly.com/blog/700-level/want-sixers-draft-mudiay-his-cba-stats-may-be-misleading

If you’re like me you’ve tried to find out everything there is to know about any player the Sixers could potentially select at No. 3 in the upcoming NBA draft.

One of those players is Emmanuel Mudiay. During my research of the 6-5 point guard, I learned quite a bit about his incredible journey from Congo to Arlington, Texas, his time spent at the now defunct Prime Prep Academy and his decision to forgo college to play professionally in China. Mudiay’s story is indeed fantastic and worth checking out for yourself.

However, more important is the unrelated discovery I made during my digital scouting trip to the Chinese Basketball Association. Here it is, brace yourself: No one in China is playing any defense.

Let me start by saying that this shocking revelation came to me purely by accident. Shortly into my original quest, I learned that Mudiay had averaged 18 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.9 assists in his 12 games off the bench for Guangdong Southern of the Chinese Basketball Association before a season-ending injury. These are very impressive numbers for a 19-year-old playing in a professional basketball league. So, naturally, I began to fantasize about the beautiful lobs Mudiay would toss to Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid as the Sixers marched to a 73-9 season in 2018 capped by a spectacular ceremony in which my new favorite player hoisted the Larry O’Brien trophy high into the air at the Wells Fargo Center as the defeated New Orleans Pelicans sulked into the locker room, totally demoralized by the awe-inspiring play of the NBA’s undisputed best point guard.

However, not wanting to get too far ahead of myself, I decided to watch some highlights to get a feel for Mudiay’s game. I was stunned at what I saw. I thought to myself “this dude is blowing past defenders as if they’re standing still.” But, upon closer examination, I realized those defenders were pretty much just standing still. I grew concerned.

I clicked around to find some more CBA highlights. After watching a highlight of J.R. Smith going off for 52 points in 2011 during his time spent in China, my interest was piqued even further. It almost seemed as if the CBA might have strict rules against defensive rotation. (I Googled it, there is no such rule.) After watching several more minutes of highlights I determined that there must be contract incentives that involve not blocking shots for any player over 6-8. I began to wonder if Mudiay’s impressive stat line was a bit misleading. I decided to check out the 2014-15 seasons statistics for the CBA.

The plot thickens.

The first name that caught my eye on the CBA scoring leader boards was Von Wafer, a former NBA player known mostly for his incredibly cool sounding name. Von Wafer averaged 32.5 points per game for the Shanxi Zhongyu Brave Dragons in 2014-15 while shooting 52.5 percent from the floor. To put that in perspective, Von Wafer averaged 10 points per game in his two years of NCAA basketball at Florida State and five points per game in his six years in the NBA. Von Wafer finished fourth in scoring in the Chinese Basketball Association.

Right now you might be saying to yourself, “So what? A former NBA second-round pick is tearing up the Chinese Basketball Association, that’s not terribly surprising.”

Well, bear with me. Just ahead of Wafer on the scoring leaders chart is former first-round pick Domonique Jones, who averaged an insane 36.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game. Yes, 36.8 ppg was good enough for third best in the CBA this year. In second place was former Oklahoma Sooner Willie Warren, who scored 38.9 ppg while shooting an unthinkable 60.6 percent from the floor as a guard. Willie Warren scored 50 points -- wait for it -- nine times in 34 games. He also added two games with 49 points. Willie Warren averaged only 10.6 ppg last year while playing in Italy’s premier basketball league, Lega A.

So who lead the CBA in scoring this year you might ask? It was none other than proud Goshen College alum Errick McCollum (brother of C.J.), who averaged 39.6 points per game over 38 games for the Zhejiang Chouzhou Golden Bulls. McCollum went undrafted in 2011, but did manage to score 1.3 ppg in the Las Vegas Summer League last year. A few months later, he set the CBA record with 82 points in a game. In America, Errick McCollum is just “some guy." In China, Erick McCollum is “the ****.”

Do you want me to keep going? (I’m going to anyway because it’s making me chuckle.) Ten different guys averaged over 30 points per game in 2014-15, including Andray Blatche. Eight different teams shot over 50 percent from the field on the season. An 83-year-old man named Tao Zhang averaged 7.4 points per game. OK, I made up that last one but you almost believed it right?

In conclusion, it’s going to be hard for NBA front offices to evaluate Mudiay statistically in comparison to NCAA prospects or international players that play in leagues where defense is encouraged.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
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FistOfOakley
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5/31/2015  5:35 PM
i've been saying this... mudiay's china appearances haven't been all too impressive... especially when will bynum outplayed him....

he is in all likelihood better than the numbers have appeared... but you have to bank on him being way better than he demonstrated in order to believe the hype...

personally... he's a gamble somewhere in the lottery but i don't think it's a prudent gamble at #4...

mreinman
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5/31/2015  5:37 PM
right and that is exactly what scares me.

I think that I take winslow over him.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
WaltLongmire
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5/31/2015  5:53 PM
Interesting, although as some pointed out in the responses to the article, Mudiay was already highly touted before going there. I think he had also competed against many in his class and shown well. Also have to say that his passing skills in China may not be skewed as much because of the bad D. You still have to anticipate and look for players, and some of the things he did in terms of passing the ball were impressive, even if the competition was less so.

You rarely see the kind of stats mentioned in the article in Europe. Not sure Mudiay would have even gotten the minutes to put up his China totals- don't think the Euros take too kindly to Yanks vacationing for a year in their leagues.

I haven't seen enough Chinese ball myself to reach certain conclusions, but the high scoring averages of certain players who I saw over here, including our buddy Marbury, has to set off an alarm if you are looking at statistics.

I assume he went to China, and not Europe, was because they offered him more playing time.

NBA teams should be able to do well enough evaluating him, I would think, and will not allow the Chinese stats to weigh too prominently in their evaluation of him.

We really have to trust in Phil on this kid. Bring in some good defenders to see how he does in the workouts, watch him carefully, and go from there.

He has a lot of supporters- fan, scouts, and coaches...has to be some reason for this.

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WaltLongmire
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5/31/2015  6:00 PM
mreinman wrote:right and that is exactly what scares me.

I think that I take winslow over him.

Of course, as many draft evaluators have pointed out, Winslow's stats might be misleading because he was a tweener SG/SF playing against bigger slower college PFs on the offensive end.

I expect that you can find a way to be critical of any player in the draft if you look carefully enough, even the players I am rooting for.

EnySpree: Can we agree to agree not to mention Phil Jackson and triangle for the rest of our lives?
mreinman
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5/31/2015  6:05 PM
WaltLongmire wrote:
mreinman wrote:right and that is exactly what scares me.

I think that I take winslow over him.

Of course, as many draft evaluators have pointed out, Winslow's stats might be misleading because he was a tweener SG/SF playing against bigger slower college PFs on the offensive end.

I expect that you can find a way to be critical of any player in the draft if you look carefully enough, even the players I am rooting for.

I am not "looking" to be critical, I am looking at what we were able to see, and duke winslow did it at the highest level.

And I certainly have questions about winslow as well ... sucks to have the 4th pick.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
holfresh
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5/31/2015  6:20 PM
WaltLongmire wrote:
mreinman wrote:right and that is exactly what scares me.

I think that I take winslow over him.

Of course, as many draft evaluators have pointed out, Winslow's stats might be misleading because he was a tweener SG/SF playing against bigger slower college PFs on the offensive end.

I expect that you can find a way to be critical of any player in the draft if you look carefully enough, even the players I am rooting for.

Winslow is not a tweener..He is 6'4" without shoes..He is physically a clone of Shumpert but more agile..He is a SG in the NBA..

CrushAlot
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5/31/2015  6:45 PM
This guy's ranking system was posted in another thread by bkexec, http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/layne-vashros-draft-projection-tools/. His projection system has Mudiay as the player most likely to be a star in this draft. Okafor and then Russell are next.
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crzymdups
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5/31/2015  6:55 PM
Mudiay has the physical skills to be a stud. What I can't get a read on is his on court demeanor and personality as a player. I think he will have a slightly longer adjustment period but wind up pretty dang good.

the more I think about it, the more I see the Lakers taking him.

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Vmart
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5/31/2015  7:42 PM
This article is misleading. Mudiay isn't being graded on what he did in China but what he did in the states. He was highly touted coming out of High School was in the top 4 on boards even before he went to China.

A professional league vs college basketball. College basketball is not the highest level of basketball. USA stopped sending college kids to the Olympics because professional leagues have passed them by. How many times has a college player dominated college only to not be so big in the NBA. There has been plenty. Sometimes you have to take stats with a grain of salt let's face it how many envisioned Jimmer Freddette doing what he did in college in the NBA. Mudiay is an 18 year old kid playing in China going up against his peers he might have put up bigger and better stats in the US.

Knicks1969
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5/31/2015  7:56 PM
I don't see anything special about this kid like most on this board have been raving about. He shows flashes of athleticism on some utube videos, but that is about it. If a guard is not able to shoot the ball and play smart basketball from early on, it is definitely a red flag to avoid; specifically, given that we only have one draft pick. If the Knicks can manage to trade down and obtain multiple picks and the kid is still on the board, I would definitely be in favor of drafting him.
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Vmart
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5/31/2015  8:05 PM
Knicks1969 wrote:I don't see anything special about this kid like most on this board have been raving about. He shows flashes of athleticism on some utube videos, but that is about it. If a guard is not able to shoot the ball and play smart basketball from early on, it is definitely a red flag to avoid; specifically, given that we only have one draft pick. If the Knicks can manage to trade down and obtain multiple picks and the kid is still on the board, I would definitely be in favor of drafting him.

We get it dude you want Russell. If Russell is not in the board when the Knicks pick then what? My first choice is Okafor but he may not be there when they pick. I want the next best player which Mudiay is. I think the kid is special, he has talent that equates to some of the better players that came into the league.

WaltLongmire
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5/31/2015  9:01 PM
holfresh wrote:
WaltLongmire wrote:
mreinman wrote:right and that is exactly what scares me.

I think that I take winslow over him.

Of course, as many draft evaluators have pointed out, Winslow's stats might be misleading because he was a tweener SG/SF playing against bigger slower college PFs on the offensive end.

I expect that you can find a way to be critical of any player in the draft if you look carefully enough, even the players I am rooting for.

Winslow is not a tweener..He is 6'4" without shoes..He is physically a clone of Shumpert but more agile..He is a SG in the NBA..


6'4.5" for what it is worth. They will list him at 6'6" in the program. Actually, I wonder if he has any growth left in him, since he was 18 during most of the season, and only turned 19 two months ago.

The position he will play in the NBA is yet to be decided. He has enough strength and bulk and has a large enough wingspan to do fine at SF, and he gains some quickness benefits at that position. He won't be bullied at the 3 and eventually there won't be many guys who can take him off the dribble from the outside.

To be honest, you almost prove the point- he was able to get off a lot of his open shots because the bigger and slower men guarding him on the outside could not control those drives of his. If a SG has a PF guarding him on the perimeter, and he should be able to take him off the dribble, or hit the jumper if the guy backs off.

He should enjoy the NBA hand-check rules by the way- he'll be taking a lot of free throws.

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Moonangie
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5/31/2015  11:11 PM
Russell is a better fit for the triangle due to his shooting, but I will be ecstatic to land either him or Mudiay.
callmened
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6/1/2015  12:12 AM
are they misleading? um yes...were comparing a 19 yr old kid who played 12 games in another country. lol. theres NOTHING you can take seriously from those games. But that doesnt mean u can deny his talent or potential
Knicks should be improved: win about 40 games and maybe sneak into the playoffs. Melo, Rose and even Noah will have some nice moments however this team should be about PORZINGUS. the sooner they make him the primary player, the better
yellowboy90
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6/1/2015  1:37 AM
callmened wrote:are they misleading? um yes...were comparing a 19 yr old kid who played 12 games in another country. lol. theres NOTHING you can take seriously from those games. But that doesnt mean u can deny his talent or potential

who knows his potential, people lime to hang onto his H.S rankings but Cliff Alexander was a top 5 recruit on most rankings and now look at him. Myles Turner was the #2 player on espn 100 and now he is a late lotto.

His H.S. rankings mean very little to me.


just quoting you as a jumping board, not attacking your potential comment.

callmened
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6/1/2015  2:39 AM
yellowboy90 wrote:
callmened wrote:are they misleading? um yes...were comparing a 19 yr old kid who played 12 games in another country. lol. theres NOTHING you can take seriously from those games. But that doesnt mean u can deny his talent or potential

who knows his potential, people lime to hang onto his H.S rankings but Cliff Alexander was a top 5 recruit on most rankings and now look at him. Myles Turner was the #2 player on espn 100 and now he is a late lotto.

His H.S. rankings mean very little to me.


just quoting you as a jumping board, not attacking your potential comment.

no i get. it but i think based on what they saw in HS he was rated highly

Knicks should be improved: win about 40 games and maybe sneak into the playoffs. Melo, Rose and even Noah will have some nice moments however this team should be about PORZINGUS. the sooner they make him the primary player, the better
smackeddog
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6/1/2015  3:00 AM    LAST EDITED: 6/1/2015  2:30 PM
The China stats and performance are useless either way- they can't be used to make a case for or against him. That's why he is a gamble. Personally, I thought in the footage he didn't look like he was going all out and putting his full effort into it, but I have no idea if he always looks like that or not.
Cartman718
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6/1/2015  10:57 AM
this has got to be the crucifix for mudiay. seems to me like he might easily drop out of top 5.
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FistOfOakley
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6/1/2015  11:11 AM
high school rankings mean very little... there are so many guys that dominate high school or look good but what matters is how you do against guys older than you... if you can dominate them then you are on your way to stardom...

the jump from high school to college usually weeds out a ton of players...

Article: Mudiay - Are his China stats misleading?

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