This is a pretty good article by Chris Herring. It was from a little while back, but he did a good job of covering the idea of WCS at #4.
But what if the ping-pong balls don’t bounce the Knicks’ way, and they slip to No. 4? That’s where Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein becomes an interesting candidate.The 7-footer is wildly athletic, and may be college basketball’s best defensive player. Even with those strengths, though, there are questions about Cauley-Stein’s offense, and whether his skill set on that end would fit with the Knicks’ triangle offense.
For Part 3 in our series on college prospects whom the Knicks should consider drafting (the first two focused on Okafor and Russell), we went on the road to watch Cauley-Stein up close and analyze how he might look in orange and blue.
Versatility: Opposing teams often abandon the pick-and-roll against Kentucky because Cauley-Stein’s quickness and ability to defend guards as well as centers allow the Wildcats to switch without being at a disadvantage. Cauley-Stein often guards the opposing team’s best scorer, regardless of position. The most recent example: He limited Auburn point guard K.T. Harrell, the SEC’s leading scorer, to 1-of-12 shooting.
Doesn’t have ‘off’ switch: It wasn’t a shock to see Cauley-Stein dive onto the hardwood for a loose ball in a hard-fought overtime win over Mississippi. But it was eye-opening to see him launch himself onto the floor during the closing stages of a 48-point victory over Texas-Arlington. He also takes the task of closing out on jump shooters seriously, and always gets a hand in the shooter’s face. That would help the Knicks, who allow the highest 3-point percentage in the NBA and contest just 20% of their opponent’s attempts from deep, according to SportVU.
Efficient without controlling the ball: While Kentucky lists Cauley-Stein as a forward, likely due to his defensive versatility, talent evaluators draw comparisons between he and Dallas Mavericks center Tyson Chandler. Both frequently serve as big, athletic target for alley-oops. Cauley-Stein dunks considerably less—according to StatSheet, 50% of his baskets are slams, as opposed to 65% of Chandler’s—and takes more jumpers, giving him a lower field-goal percentage than the ex-Knick, at 57%. But a stopwatch analysis of each of Kentucky game this season reveals that Cauley-Stein possesses the ball for just 1.46 seconds on average each time he touches it in the frontcourt—a rate that would make him less stingy than Quincy Acy, who has the shortest average time of possession on the Knicks roster, per NBA Savant.
Premier shot-blocking instincts: Between his athleticism and uncanny timing, Cauley-Stein makes life difficult for opposing guards, both as a primary and roving help defender. Watching film, it almost looks as if he sometimes wants shorter players to get a half step on him, in hopes of inducing a shot. That’s how much Cauley-Stein trusts his length and foot speed: He knows he’ll be able to catch players from behind to get a block as their shots are being released. His 7% block rate is a career-low, but some of that can be overlooked since he’s playing alongside Towns (12.2%), who serves as a more traditional anchor and erases several shots that Cauley-Stein would otherwise block himself.
Not strong with ball in his hands: Cauley-Stein usually loses the ball when a second defender provides help and reaches in to disrupt him. Almost half his turnovers this season were the result of being stripped. When he manages to hold on to the rock, he often jackknifes and double-clutches around instead of simply going straight into a defender’s body to assure a trip to the free-throw line.
Not a traditional rebounder: Cauley-Stein’s rebound rate, at 17.4% on defense and just under 15% overall, is lackluster for someone his size. Again, Towns’s presence partly explains that. But the low defensive rebound mark may stem from Cauley-Stein’s versatility. A center obviously can’t collect many rebounds when he’s tasked with guarding (or constantly switching onto) a wing player for an entire game. Still, if the Knicks—with a defensive-rebounding rate that ranks third-worst in the league—drafted Cauley-Stein, they’d be wise to sign free agents who not only can switch on defense, but also rebound well for the positions they play.
Willing shooter, but inaccurate: The 21-year-old hasn’t been shy about pulling the trigger this year when left open along the baseline or at the elbow. But he’s made just 32% of his attempts from seven feet and beyond this season—almost identical to last year, when he hit 31% of his attempts from that range, according to Shot Analytics.
Questionable fit for triangle offense: Unlike Okafor and Towns, both ideal for the triangle because of their ability to play with their backs to the basket, posting up may never be Cauley-Stein’s forte on offense. He doesn’t look lost while trying to post up, but he’s scored on just a third of his looks in post-ups, and is far more of a threat when he lurks along the baseline behind a defense that has been distracted by a driving guard. His skill set may be better suited for an up-tempo team that runs frequent pick-and-rolls—not a Knick club that ranks third-to-last in both pace and pick-and-roll frequency, per Synergy Sports.
Free-throw improvement is unusual: Cauley-Stein shot 37% from the line as a freshman, 48% last season and now is at 62% this season—a very drastic set of year-to-year increases. Just three players in NBA history have ever seen 10-percentage-point improvements at the line in consecutive years, per Stats LLC. Among them: Karl Malone, who began his career as a very poor foul shooter, but later became solid at the stripe and a threat from midrange.
Blocks often go back to offense: Cauley-Stein is an intimidating shot-blocker, but he has a tendency to throw the shots out of bounds, usually giving opposing teams a second chance. Opponents have recovered 53.4% of Cauley-Stein’s blocks, per Hoop-Math—a drastic difference from the 34.9% rate at which they recover rejections by Towns. (In fairness, he makes up for this by leading his team in steals, with 45, despite playing center.)
Film study may be new concept: Asked how he goes about staying engaged during film review, since his team remains undefeated—and therefore shouldn’t have all that much to improve upon—Cauley-Stein said he really doesn’t have to. “We don’t watch a lot of film. We just watch maybe four or five clips before a game,” he said with a laugh. “We don’t really have a chance to get bored watching film, because it’s such a short amount of time that we’re doing it for.”
Older than other prospects: At 21, Cauley-Stein is about two years older than the other top prospects who are eligible to declare for this year’s draft—a fact that may make him more NBA-ready than the other players. On the other hand, though, some may argue that he has less upside than the younger prospects for that same reason.
Accelerates the game at both ends: Cauley-Stein is always a threat to fly down the court—and finish with a highlight-reel dunk—as 20% of his shot attempts have come in transition, per Hoop-Math. Kentucky coach John Calipari’s has enjoyed great success by putting the 7-footer on the ball during press situations. In a game against Montana State, Cauley-Stein’s length and quickness on the press repeatedly stifled the inbounder, and it took the Bobcats a whopping eight tries before they managed to cross half-court against Cauley-Stein and the Kentucky defense.
Cauley-Stein’s agility, particularly in today’s pick-and-roll heavy NBA, is incredibly valuable and would provide the Knicks with different options as to how they structure their defense. He’s more than just a rim protector, and can guard multiple positions with great energy while making the Knicks more athletic and up-tempo.
The bigger question, and the greater unknown, is on the offensive end.
Jackson’s decision to trade Chandler—which he has acknowledged was at least partly rooted in the fact that he didn’t see Chandler as an ideal fit in the triangle—makes the Cauley-Stein situation more interesting from a philosophical standpoint, since he lacks what many would perceive to be necessary triangle skills.
Still, we can’t assume that Jackson would pass on a prospect with this kind of talent simply because of the Chandler trade. Chandler was a 31-year-old player with a history of injuries that was set to make almost $15 million in the final year of his contract.
Passing on Cauley-Stein if the Knicks draft No. 4 would be understandable. Another player might strike them as more talented, and most prospects would probably fit their offense better. But taking him would help clarify where the organization stands on the “fit versus talent” question that figures to shape the team’s summer plans.
5/25/2015 7:44 PM