fishmike wrote:its a bit funny to me Bonn.. you argue against the merits of signing MElo to a max contract, you go on about the faults in his game, yet:
Even if Rose never plays again, if Melo joins the team, I think they can compete for the ECF. They might make it to the finals depending on what happens in Miami and how terrible the rest of the conference is.
you say that Melo is good enough to add to a team who has one star (Noah) a few solid role guys but cant get out of the first round, so add Melo and they can compete for a title.kinda begs the flip side of the coin.. why not keep Melo, use cap space or expirings to put together a deal for a stud and go to the ECF or finals themselves? Why not go that route Bonn?
I do want to keep Melo - at a Duncan/Parker level salary.
I think he adds 5 or 6 wins and raises a team's playoff ceiling by about a round. That's not enough to justify a max contract, and certainly not in our case where everything else has to workout perfectly just to plausibly build a contender for Melo's 14th to 17th seasons.
For us to sign Melo to a max contract, the following would have to workout:
A) We build a very strong supporting cast. I'd give this alone maybe a 20% chance of working since most teams fail in this regard, and it will be even harder to do it in a 12 month period since we have almost no foundation right now.
B) Melo ages very well for his 14th to 17th seasons. This too is unlikely but possible.
The probability of both A and B working is the product of their individual likelihoods. In other words, it's extremely low.
For it to work for Chicago, point A is accomplished already, and they are looking to get key production from him starting right now (13th rather than 14th season). So it's a much better (or less bad) gamble for them.
And all that said, I still think their ceiling is just the ECF or potentially finals, which would still give me some hesitation to pull the deal from Chicago's perspective. (I never said I would do the deal if I ran Chicago; I only said that it could push them to a higher level within the east.)