I saw this in the comments over at knickerblogger and wanted to see what you guys thought. Wages of Wins, David Berri's site, released their win predictions for next season and they're... interesting:

EAST

Miami - 54.9 wins
Detroit(?!) - 53.5 wins
Chicago - 49.7 wins
Atlanta - 48.1 wins
Cleveland - 45.8 wins
Philly - 43 wins
Toronto - 41.2 wins
Boston - 38.8 wins
Indy - 38.2 wins
Brooklyn - 35.7 wins
Washington - 34.2 wins
New York - 33.6 wins
Milwaukee - 33 wins
Orlando - 26.7 wins
Charlotte - 26.5 wins

WEST

Houston - 67.3 wins
Clipper - 60.3 wins
San Antonio - 55.4 wins
OKC - 54.1 wins
Memphis - 53.9 wins
Dallas - 44.3 wins
Utah - 43.6 wins
Denver - 42.2 wins
Minnesota - 38.7 wins
Golden State - 37.5 wins
Portland - 29.7 wins
New Orleans - 29.5 wins
Sacramento - 24.3 wins
Phoenix - 22.1 wins
Lakers - 21.9 wins

So, WTF? How is it possible that we go from 54 wins last season to 33 this year when we've lost no players of any importance. And as bad as Bargnani probably is, though I have some hope he can turn his career around, there's no way any player is bad enough to reduce a team's win total by 20 games by himself. And what's with some of the other teams? Unless Drummond goes absolutely insane this year how does Detroit even sniff 50 wins? And even if Philly wasn't actively trying to lose as many games as possible how do they come close to 43 wins? How to Indy and Brooklyn fall beneath .500? And how come the West predictions pretty much all make sense except for Utah?

The only reason I haven't dismissed this out of hand is because they predicted we'd win 56 games last season which was almost exactly right. So, thoughts?

Dagger wrote:

VCoug wrote:http://wagesofwins.com/2013/08/26/the-nba-offseason-list-part-4-the-last-dress-rehersal/

I saw this in the comments over at knickerblogger and wanted to see what you guys thought. Wages of Wins, David Berri's site, released their win predictions for next season and they're... interesting:

EAST

Miami - 54.9 wins
Detroit(?!) - 53.5 wins
Chicago - 49.7 wins
Atlanta - 48.1 wins
Cleveland - 45.8 wins
Philly - 43 wins
Toronto - 41.2 wins
Boston - 38.8 wins
Indy - 38.2 wins
Brooklyn - 35.7 wins
Washington - 34.2 wins
New York - 33.6 wins
Milwaukee - 33 wins
Orlando - 26.7 wins
Charlotte - 26.5 wins

WEST

Houston - 67.3 wins
Clipper - 60.3 wins
San Antonio - 55.4 wins
OKC - 54.1 wins
Memphis - 53.9 wins
Dallas - 44.3 wins
Utah - 43.6 wins
Denver - 42.2 wins
Minnesota - 38.7 wins
Golden State - 37.5 wins
Portland - 29.7 wins
New Orleans - 29.5 wins
Sacramento - 24.3 wins
Phoenix - 22.1 wins
Lakers - 21.9 wins

So, WTF? How is it possible that we go from 54 wins last season to 33 this year when we've lost no players of any importance. And as bad as Bargnani probably is, though I have some hope he can turn his career around, there's no way any player is bad enough to reduce a team's win total by 20 games by himself. And what's with some of the other teams? Unless Drummond goes absolutely insane this year how does Detroit even sniff 50 wins? And even if Philly wasn't actively trying to lose as many games as possible how do they come close to 43 wins? How to Indy and Brooklyn fall beneath .500? And how come the West predictions pretty much all make sense except for Utah?

The only reason I haven't dismissed this out of hand is because they predicted we'd win 56 games last season which was almost exactly right. So, thoughts?

Almost every prediction on this list is ridiculous. I now know to never waste my time visiting that site. The West predictions don't make sense at all, are you crazy? Lakers will definitely win way more than 22 games. Warriors will definitely win more than 37 games. Houston will not win much more than 60, and Denver will definitely have more than 42 wins. Maybe the West predictions look reasonable to you because the East predictions are so ludicrous in comparison. I could ask someone who's never watched the NBA in their lives to predict the records for the East and they would do a better job.

I don't see why the Lakers should win way more than 22 games if Kobe misses significant time. Take a look at the roster, it's bad even with Kobe but without him they're awful.

I don't know how well Iguodala fits in with Golden State and who knows if Curry and Bogut can stay healthy.

Houston winning 67 games is probably unrealistic but they do have a chance to be really good.

Denver lost Iguodala, Gallo has a torn ACL, and they have, and admittedly well-respected, rookie head coach.

IronWillGiroud wrote:the better question is, what did they predict last year?

I think this is it
http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/30/the-full-monty-win-predictions-for-the-2012-13-nba-season/

VCoug wrote:

IronWillGiroud wrote:the better question is, what did they predict last year?

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

Those are their predictions for last season and a couple of things stand out. They got 7 out of 8 playoff teams correct in the East, picking Philly over Brooklyn, and 6 out of 8 in the West, picking Minnesota and New Orleans over Houston and Golden State (the Minnesota pick is at least justifiable since you can't predict Love missing pretty much the entire season). They nailed a handful of teams going against the general consensus predicting NY to win 56, Denver to win 55, and LAL to win 47.

But how did they come to their prediction? would it matter that you got the prediction right but your reasoning for why a team should win those games wrong?

VCoug wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

IronWillGiroud wrote:the better question is, what did they predict last year?

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

Those are their predictions for last season and a couple of things stand out. They got 7 out of 8 playoff teams correct in the East, picking Philly over Brooklyn, and 6 out of 8 in the West, picking Minnesota and New Orleans over Houston and Golden State (the Minnesota pick is at least justifiable since you can't predict Love missing pretty much the entire season). They nailed a handful of teams going against the general consensus predicting NY to win 56, Denver to win 55, and LAL to win 47.

But how did they come to their prediction? would it matter that you got the prediction right but your reasoning for why a team should win those games wrong?

It's straight statistical analysis based on David Berri's Wins Produced.

I know but who did they predict to get the wins share to get to their predictions. (I'm on my phone so I can't check the link like I want to). I have an idea.

But how on earth does he make such a big deal about Greg Oden signing in Miami? What has he done in the NBA statistically speaking to warrant anything more than a footnote?

San Antonio and Miami remain San Antonio and Miami. Greg Oden is the biggest X-Factor of the season. If he’s even 50% of his potential, Miami is a lock for a fourth finals appearance in a row.

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

IronWillGiroud wrote:the better question is, what did they predict last year?

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

Those are their predictions for last season and a couple of things stand out. They got 7 out of 8 playoff teams correct in the East, picking Philly over Brooklyn, and 6 out of 8 in the West, picking Minnesota and New Orleans over Houston and Golden State (the Minnesota pick is at least justifiable since you can't predict Love missing pretty much the entire season). They nailed a handful of teams going against the general consensus predicting NY to win 56, Denver to win 55, and LAL to win 47.

But how did they come to their prediction? would it matter that you got the prediction right but your reasoning for why a team should win those games wrong?

It's straight statistical analysis based on David Berri's Wins Produced.

I know but who did they predict to get the wins share to get to their predictions. (I'm on my phone so I can't check the link like I want to). I have an idea.

Here are their projected minutes and wins produced for each individual Knick:

PLAYER                MPG       WINS
Tyson Chandler         31       14.8
Pablo Prigioni         24.5      7.3
Iman Shumpert          19        3.2
Raymond Felton         33.2      5.3
JR Smith               11.9      2.2
Beno Udrih              8.1      1.7
Carmelo Anthony        33.7      2.9
Tim Hardaway JR         6.3      0.3
CJ Leslie               3.4      0.1
Amare Stoudemire       16.7      1.2
Metta World Peace       9.6      0.8
Kenyon Martin          14.5      1.2
Jeremy Tyler            4.8     -1
Andrea Bargnani        23.6     -3.8

franco12 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

franco12 wrote:I'm sure its quite intelligent - I only glanced through it.

But how on earth does he make such a big deal about Greg Oden signing in Miami? What has he done in the NBA statistically speaking to warrant anything more than a footnote?

San Antonio and Miami remain San Antonio and Miami. Greg Oden is the biggest X-Factor of the season. If he’s even 50% of his potential, Miami is a lock for a fourth finals appearance in a row.

Based on their model, he played very well in his limited minutes. It averages out to 15 points on 10 shots, 12 rbs, and 2.5 blocks per 36 min.

so they allow small samples without adjustment in their model? I'm sure then that you could find 12 bench players that played hardly any minutes that as a group would do better than Miami?

What? Where do you see that? All he said was that Oden is a big X-factor.

VCoug wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

IronWillGiroud wrote:the better question is, what did they predict last year?

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

Those are their predictions for last season and a couple of things stand out. They got 7 out of 8 playoff teams correct in the East, picking Philly over Brooklyn, and 6 out of 8 in the West, picking Minnesota and New Orleans over Houston and Golden State (the Minnesota pick is at least justifiable since you can't predict Love missing pretty much the entire season). They nailed a handful of teams going against the general consensus predicting NY to win 56, Denver to win 55, and LAL to win 47.

But how did they come to their prediction? would it matter that you got the prediction right but your reasoning for why a team should win those games wrong?

It's straight statistical analysis based on David Berri's Wins Produced.

I know but who did they predict to get the wins share to get to their predictions. (I'm on my phone so I can't check the link like I want to). I have an idea.

Here are their projected minutes and wins produced for each individual Knick:

PLAYER                MPG       WINS
Tyson Chandler         31       14.8
Pablo Prigioni         24.5      7.3
Iman Shumpert          19        3.2
Raymond Felton         33.2      5.3
JR Smith               11.9      2.2
Beno Udrih              8.1      1.7
Carmelo Anthony        33.7      2.9
Tim Hardaway JR         6.3      0.3
CJ Leslie               3.4      0.1
Amare Stoudemire       16.7      1.2
Metta World Peace       9.6      0.8
Kenyon Martin          14.5      1.2
Jeremy Tyler            4.8     -1
Andrea Bargnani        23.6     -3.8

See, Bargs is a zero-sum player.

Do net let Nix see this.

Also, how do they come up with the minutes distribution?