That's all I got from it. Think he's way too down on Felton. What can I say I'm a sucker for "in the best shape of his life and ready to turn a page" preseason type stories. Still might be right about 1st round exit again though:
Overview
Does anyone know what the Knicks are right now? Including the Knicks?
Are they a defensive-minded team anchored by a dominant center? A free-wheeling, quick-gunning team in the mold of recent Nuggets teams? (They now employ four former Nuggets who will be in their rotation.) A classic pick-and-roll team that runs everything through its dynamic point guard?
Actually, scratch that last one. The Knicks' curious decision to jettison Jeremy Lin will loom over this season whether they like it or not, especially if Lin plays well in Houston. (As he's likely to.)
That would be fine if this was part of some overarching strategy, but the biggest dilemma for the Knicks heading into this season is one of identity.
HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Knicks' roster. Player Profiles
Are they going all-in for a title? Not really, looking at their starting backcourt.
Are they in spend-at-all-costs mode? They were, right up to the point where they let Lin and Landry Fields walk in restricted free agency. That's right, the free-spending, bigger-market-than-anybody-else Knicks gave up not one, but TWO restricted free agents this summer.
Are they building around defense? That was their strength last season, but they have one good defensive player in their starting five (arguably two, depending on whom they start at shooting guard), and their two highest-paid players are sieves.
About the best coherent statement one can make is that the Knicks are built around the idea that Carmelo Anthony is a superstar. That's the only way to make sense of letting Lin go while spending all the money they could find on role players who can defend and shoot. Anthony, alas, hasn't performed to that caliber, as the Knicks' record since acquiring him (51-44) makes clear, but it appears New York is committed to this idea for a while longer. As New York is to the notion that Amare Stoudemire is still an elite player and one who should be starting alongside Anthony. However, the two have rarely succeeded on the court together, with Anthony in particular playing far better as a 4 sans Stoudemire. (One wonders why the Knicks can't simply bring Stoudemire off the bench.)
Thus, the biggest paradox of all: The two big beliefs upon which the Knicks are built actually collide with one another. Anthony is possibly a superstar as a 4 -- his data is good enough from that position that we can't rule it out. But he can't play there if Stoudemire is.
2011-12 Recap
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A long and winding first season for the Knicks' star trio ended in familiar fashion: a first-round exit.
Well, they kept things interesting. New York's season went in three phases: early disaster, Linsanity and the Woodson era. The Knicks began the season with a makeshift bench and a game plan of playing through Anthony and Stoudemire, one that proved deficient when Stoudemire showed staggering decline from his previous season. Making matters worse was the total collapse by point guard Toney Douglas, leaving a gaping hole at that position as the Knicks limped to an 8-15 start.
Here's where a lot of credit has to go to New York's management -- through a number of shrewd (and, believe it or not, inexpensive) moves, the Knicks were able to build out a very respectable bench. Rookie Iman Shumpert showed he was a capable defender, scrap-heap pickup Steve Novak proved both an elite 3-point marksman and a less flammable defender than expected, and post-China import J.R. Smith and amnesty casualty Baron Davis stabilized a creaking rotation.
And a little-known waiver-wire pickup named Jeremy Lin started getting minutes. Which takes us to the second part: Linsanity. I assume you're all familiar with the story by now, as Lin spent a few weeks carving up opposing defenses in Mike D'Antoni's point guard-friendly attack while Melo was injured. When Anthony came back, alas, the good times quickly stopped rolling, and it cost D'Antoni his job.
HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS
W-L: 36-30 (Pythagorean W-L: 42-24)
Offensive Efficiency: 101.4 (19th)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.4 (5th)
Pace Factor: 95.7 (5th)
Highest PER: Carmelo Anthony (21.15)
Enter Mike Woodson, who remade the Knicks into a different kind of team, one dependent on Anthony, still, but more defensive-minded and, thanks to the front office's work, deeper. Lin checked out with a knee injury, and New York thrived with Anthony playing the 4 while Stoudemire was hurt. But when Stoudemire came back, the Knicks reverted to their old ways and were summarily dismissed in the playoffs by Miami.
That series also featured two bad injuries for New York that will affect this season: Shumpert and Davis both blew out their knees. Shumpert might return later in the season, but Davis is highly unlikely to play in 2012-13, if ever again.
It's hard to digest New York's full-season stats because it basically had three different teams, but overall, the emphasis on the 3 stands out. The Knicks were second only to Orlando, with 28.8 percent of their shots coming from beyond the arc. Between the 3s and a high free throw rate, they were fifth in the league in secondary percentage.
They finished below the league average in offensive efficiency anyway, and the reason was turnovers. New York gave it away on 16.6 percent of its trips, ranking 27th among the league's 30 teams, and this was consistent no matter which "era" we're talking about. With Douglas a mess and Anthony flailing as a point forward, the pre-Lin Knicks were a high-mistake bunch. Lin, for all his strengths, was a turnover machine. And while the mistakes calmed a bit under Woodson, the issue persisted.
New York finished a surprising fifth in defensive efficiency, with the Woodson group performing particularly well. Chandler had a huge effect and won the defensive player of the year award for his efforts, but New York also forced turnovers in bunches. Only Memphis was more successful, and only the Grizzlies permitted fewer opponent shot attempts per possession. As a result, the Knicks could succeed despite average shooting defense (52.6 opponent true shooting percentage, against the league average of 52.7).
One can argue they should have succeeded more, actually. New York won 36 games but had the scoring margin of a 42-win team, and it had nearly the same point differential as Indiana, which won 10 more games.
Offseason Moves
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Even after captivating New York City during Linsanity, Jeremy Lin was allowed to flee to Houston.
It was a typical Knicks summer in which they used every available exception and sign-and-trade possibility to rope in every player they possibly could, expenses be damned. ... Right up until it came time to match offer sheets for their starting backcourt. The decision not to might well haunt them this season.
Drafted Kostas Papanikolaou. A very good pick in the second round, but one rendered irrelevant by the next move.
Let Jeremy Lin go; traded Dan Gadzuric, Jared Jeffries, a 2016 second-rounder and the rights to Kostas Papanikolaou to Portland for a signed-and-traded Raymond Felton (four years, $15 million) and Kurt Thomas. This was the most baffling part of New York's offseason -- declining to match an offer sheet to Lin and then spending equivalent money to get veterans Felton and Camby, and giving up assets to do it. Felton had an awful season in Portland, and while he might be a bit better in New York it's still a stretch to call him a legit starting NBA point guard at this point. Lin wasn't a great fit with Melo, but even so he was likely to badly outperform Felton. And the Knicks gave up two second-rounders, Papanikolaou and the 2016 pick, to do it. The 2016 second-rounder is top-37 protected, for what it's worth.
Let Landry Fields go; signed Jason Kidd for three years, $9 million: On paper, Kidd might be the Knicks' starting shooting guard this season. One can argue this position suits him better, as he is much more effective guarding 2s than 1s and effectively plays a spot-up shooting role in half-court offensive sets. More worrisome is that New York guaranteed three years to a 39-year-old point guard who clearly took a step back in 2011-12. As for Fields, Toronto made an absurd offer sheet in the hopes of derailing New York's plans to trade for Steve Nash (remember that?). Even given the Knicks' spend-at-all-costs approach, it wasn't a big shock to see them stick Toronto with this contract.
Traded Toney Douglas, Jerome Jordan, Josh Harrellson, cash and two second-round picks to Houston for a signed-and-traded Marcus Camby (three years, $14 million): New York filled its hole at backup center, although only by somewhat overpaying the declining Camby and surrendering a few useful assets -- not only two second-rounders, but Harrellson, who had shown some uses as a pick-and-pop big man and who now will play against the Knicks in Miami.
One should note that the Knicks pulled off this move and the Felton trade only by signing Gadzuric, Jordan and Harrellson to deals with non-guaranteed second years, a bit of cap-planning foresight that let them participate in the free-agent market via sign-and-trades despite being over the cap. Alas, this window will be closed for luxury tax-paying teams after this season, and the Knicks most likely will be in the tax for the next three years.
Let Mike Bibby, Bill Walker and Baron Davis go; signed Ronnie Brewer, James White and Pablo Prigioni to one-year minimum deals: Getting Brewer for the minimum was the biggest coup of New York's offseason; while he slumped in Chicago last season, he's still a very good defender and his knack for cutting off the ball could prove useful here. In fact, it's possible he will start at the 2.
White and Prigioni are more speculative plays. Prigioni's translated European stats suggest he won't accomplish much, and he's 35 years old, so I don't understand New York's motivation for that deal. White also has bounced around for years, but if he knocks down corner 3s, he will be an upgrade on Walker and could steal some minutes as a backup small forward.
Re-signed J.R. Smith for two years, $5.7 million: This was the most New York could pay Smith, who became the go-to guy for New York's second unit after returning from China. While the Knicks likely gave him too much rope offensively, this is a decent price for his contribution. The deal contains an opt-out option for after the season that Smith is likely to use, but he'll be an early Bird free agent and New York can sign him for up to $4.9 million a year at that point.
Re-signed Steve Novak for four years, $15 million: Novak's big payday came after the Players Association won a court case to establish his Bird rights, even though he had been waived before New York claimed him. (The same case also affected Lin.) Had that not happened, the Knicks almost certainly would have lost Novak to another team. At this price, Novak's deal is decent as long as he can play passable defense, which he did for the first time last season. His shooting ability is obviously not in doubt.
Signed Rasheed Wallace for one year, minimum: Unlike New York's other dice rolls on ancient players, this one carried no risk in terms of years or dollars and, as a result, is a much more acceptable gamble. Wallace's conditioning fell off dramatically in his final two seasons, and one doesn't get the impression he's been running stairs and drinking protein shakes in retirement. Nonetheless, his size, shooting ability and defensive IQ give him a chance to provide some decent minutes off the bench.
2012-13 Outlook
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For better or worse, Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler will lead N.Y. again.
Once again, this team is likely to have more sizzle than steak. New York did all the classic win-the-news-conference Knicks stuff you're used to by now -- giving long-term deals to declining veterans, trading their draft picks eons ago and letting their best young players leave.
With all that said, this won't be a terrible team, and had Shumpert not hurt his knee, you could make a stronger case that it might earn a top-four seed. The Knicks are going to disappoint offensively as long as they insist on playing Anthony and Stoudemire alongside each other, and that suboptimal setup comes with the added negative of anemic scoring from the backcourt.
That said, the Knicks had a ton of similar problems last season and still won games. No matter how bad Felton is, he'll be better than Douglas or Bibby was, and while Kidd is a shadow of what he was, he and Brewer are unlikely to be appreciably worse than Fields. Similarly, Camby, for all his faults, is a genuine upgrade on the Jared Jeffries-Harrellson combo that previously backed up Chandler.
In an Eastern Conference in which several teams are likely to land within a few games of each other, that yields a wide range of landing spots for the 'Bockers. If everything goes right -- meaning Melo and Chandler stay healthy, Felton lays off the bonbons, and the defensive effort of this past spring sustains itself -- one can see New York winning the division at or near 50 wins. This is particularly true if the Knicks change their stubborn course, start Anthony at the 4 and bring Stoudemire off the bench.
However, we don't do forecasts based on best-case scenarios. New York doesn't have a ton of depth, it's counting on older players and there's a chance Stoudemire's decline will continue into the abyss this season. The more likely outcome is that the Knicks will remain somewhat above-average defensively, thanks largely to Chandler, but that a middling offense will condemn them to another one-and-done postseason.
Prediction: 45-37, 4th in Atlantic, tied for 6th in Eastern Conference
Let's try to elevate the level of discourse in this byeetch. Please
10/16/2012 2:16 PM