Sorry for the harsh headline, but I’m having a hard time coming up with any other conclusion. While I haven’t checked the Harvard core curriculum lately, it must surely be light on math, psychology and logic, and completely devoid of Marketing 101. How else to explain the self-destructive actions of its most famous basketball alum, Jeremy Lin, who has taken the global phenomenon known as Linsanity and doused it with kerosene.

After last night’s decision by the New York Knicks to let him walk to the Houston Rockets, almost all of the analysis has focused on Knicks owner Jim Dolan. He faced a vexing dilemma, given the back-loaded contract offer from the Houston Rockets that would have forced the Knicks to effectively pay $50 million for Lin’s services three years hence. (My friend Howard Beck of the New York Times provides a useful primer here.) How do you weigh Lin’s basketball and marketing potential against a very small sample set (he’s started all of 25 games in his career) and also against not just what he would be paid, but the larger ramifications of his contract down the line? Given that the adjectives associated with Dolan, backed up a dysfunctional track record, generally include illogical, vindictive, paranoid and dumb (and because I’m a lifelong Knicks fan, I’m being kind), he’s predictably being ripped apart.

In the end, though, I’m more fascinated by the choices Lin made. Dolan will be rich and reviled no matter what he does. Lin may have signed a big contract, but he also just provided the folks at Harvard Business School with a brilliant case study how to cost yourself millions of dollars and scads of influence when you’re not looking at the big picture.

To review, the point guard’s scrub-to-star rise in February – Linsanity! — has arguably been the best sports story of the year, played out on one of the biggest stages, Madison Square Garden. But the NBA’s complicated labor rules forced Lin to shop around his services in order to maximize his next contract with the Knicks. At first, he did so brilliantly, according to numerous reports, originally getting Houston to offer him roughly $5 million for his first two years of his contract (the maximum anyone was allowed), and then a $9 million balloon in the third year, with a team option for a fourth.

Various Knicks sources, including their coach, playing poker as deftly as a late-night drunk at Circus Circus, announced that they would match it, and that was presumably that. A global marketing machine would remain in the global marketing capital, as had been his goal all along, Lin just told Sports Illustrated.

And this where Lin flunked miserably. After the clumsy Knicks showed their hand, Lin and Houston agreed to add another $5 million to his guaranteed salary in third year – a true poison pill, since that extra $5 million would cost the Knicks an extra $20 million or so, courtesy of the NBA’s punitive new luxury tax, atop the effective $30 million bite they had already internalized.

I get why Houston did it. But why did Lin, as an equal party to the new offer, go along? I can only offer two theories:

Financial Certainty: With the revised offer, Lin guaranteed himself an extra $5 million in his pocket, three years from now. That’s serious scratch for a man who had been sleeping on his brother’s couch earlier this year. And given legitimate worries that he was way overperforming during his magical 25 game coming out, taking the sure thing now makes some sense.

But why structure it in a way so punitive to New York? If it was all about certainty, Lin could have instead tried to guarantee that fourth year (or even a fifth year). At $9 million per, that’s way more downside protection, yet spreading it out in a way that didn’t push the Knicks toward the fiscal cliff.

As for the upside, forcing the Knicks to even consider ending his tenure in New York is the truest definition of Linsanity. If Lin is even 80% as good as he showed in flashes last season, fronting a very good, very hyped Knicks team had the potential to bring him tens of millions in endorsements. But as Steve Herz, who cuts celebrity endorsement deals as president of IF Management previously told my colleague Tom Van Riper: “Lin leading the Charlotte Bobcats back to respectability wouldn’t be that interesting. It’s not something that Coca-Cola is going to play $10 million for.”

Insert “Houston Rockets” into that sentence, and you get Lin’s new reality. Rather than the golden boy on an obsessed-over team in the world’s media capital, he’s now an above-average player on a below-average team in a low-profile city.

Yes, Yao Ming made the Rockets popular in China. It’s another reason why Houston made a smart move here. But it doesn’t do much for Lin.

Ego: If you believe “sources close to Lin,” he was offended that the Knicks didn’t court him pro-actively (ignoring the fact that the way the system was set up, they needed to let someone else make an offer if he wanted more money). Compounding matters, when he sent out a Tweet trying to clarify, Lin said that such blind item stories are “probably not” true – the kind of squishy response that conjures the classic celebrity “I’m sorry if anyone was offended” apology.

Others have posited that he wanted to be the go-to guy on his team, versus share with ball hog Carmelo Anthony and the rest of the star-laden Knicks.

Even speculation in these areas damages Lin’s brand. People didn’t fall in love with Lin because he was a star player. They loved him because he’s an underdog, he was humble and he won. The choice he just made, amid the circus he helped create, undermines all of those attributes.

Last night, as I watched SportsCenter, the anchors declared these developments as the formal “end of Linsanity.” But it’s more accurate to say that Jeremy Lin sold it for a $5 million note three years from now – a monumentally foolish price for a brand that could have been golden.

The point about having to get an offer to match I can understand and perhaps there is a flaw in my initial argument the knicks could have locked him up before the "pill" was presented. Being offended? Is lin really that stupid he did not understand the rule?

Lin is not a knick. If blame must be assigned then I suppose we can go on beating the dead horse for weeks.

Is this article lover or hate?

Nalod wrote:It an interesting article, but Im not sure it really clarifies much.

The point about having to get an offer to match I can understand and perhaps there is a flaw in my initial argument the knicks could have locked him up before the "pill" was presented. Being offended? Is lin really that stupid he did not understand the rule?

Lin is not a knick. If blame must be assigned then I suppose we can go on beating the dead horse for weeks.

Is this article lover or hate?

Also, this article was posted here before. I can't find the thread but I posted it. Possibly in another thread I regards to the initial emotional reaction to lin's signing with houston

earthmansurfer wrote:Great, looks like Dolan's spin control is in full effect and not doing a very good job of it.

Spin? The writer called Dolan vindictive and dumb, hardly an article that was endorsed by Dolan and his PR machine....

muhaha wrote:This writer is as stupid as they come without doing any research whatsoever. I can't believe he works for Fobes Magazine.

Facts:
- Top 10 athletes who earned the most in endorsements, not one of them played for a New York team or live in New York City.
- Carmelo's endorsements earning hadn't increased a bit by going from Denver to New York.

Playing in New York doesn't guarantee big endorsements, and not playing in New York doesn't automatically guarantee athelete wont get big endorsements.

Ask LeBron, Kevin G, Tom Brady, D12, Wade, Payton Manning how not playing in New York had affected their endorsements!

Edit: Wade and Lebron made a combine of 44 million last year....together in a small market city called Miami!

Yeah, I have no idea what this article is talking about. And there's absolutely no mention of China or Taiwan where Lin can really make some money just like Yao and McGrady have.

holfresh wrote:http://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2012/07/18/jeremy-lin-may-be-the-dumbest-harvard-grad-ever/2/

Sorry for the harsh headline, but I’m having a hard time coming up with any other conclusion. While I haven’t checked the Harvard core curriculum lately, it must surely be light on math, psychology and logic, and completely devoid of Marketing 101. How else to explain the self-destructive actions of its most famous basketball alum, Jeremy Lin, who has taken the global phenomenon known as Linsanity and doused it with kerosene.

After last night’s decision by the New York Knicks to let him walk to the Houston Rockets, almost all of the analysis has focused on Knicks owner Jim Dolan. He faced a vexing dilemma, given the back-loaded contract offer from the Houston Rockets that would have forced the Knicks to effectively pay $50 million for Lin’s services three years hence. (My friend Howard Beck of the New York Times provides a useful primer here.) How do you weigh Lin’s basketball and marketing potential against a very small sample set (he’s started all of 25 games in his career) and also against not just what he would be paid, but the larger ramifications of his contract down the line? Given that the adjectives associated with Dolan, backed up a dysfunctional track record, generally include illogical, vindictive, paranoid and dumb (and because I’m a lifelong Knicks fan, I’m being kind), he’s predictably being ripped apart.

In the end, though, I’m more fascinated by the choices Lin made. Dolan will be rich and reviled no matter what he does. Lin may have signed a big contract, but he also just provided the folks at Harvard Business School with a brilliant case study how to cost yourself millions of dollars and scads of influence when you’re not looking at the big picture.

To review, the point guard’s scrub-to-star rise in February – Linsanity! — has arguably been the best sports story of the year, played out on one of the biggest stages, Madison Square Garden. But the NBA’s complicated labor rules forced Lin to shop around his services in order to maximize his next contract with the Knicks. At first, he did so brilliantly, according to numerous reports, originally getting Houston to offer him roughly $5 million for his first two years of his contract (the maximum anyone was allowed), and then a $9 million balloon in the third year, with a team option for a fourth.

Various Knicks sources, including their coach, playing poker as deftly as a late-night drunk at Circus Circus, announced that they would match it, and that was presumably that. A global marketing machine would remain in the global marketing capital, as had been his goal all along, Lin just told Sports Illustrated.

And this where Lin flunked miserably. After the clumsy Knicks showed their hand, Lin and Houston agreed to add another $5 million to his guaranteed salary in third year – a true poison pill, since that extra $5 million would cost the Knicks an extra $20 million or so, courtesy of the NBA’s punitive new luxury tax, atop the effective $30 million bite they had already internalized.

I get why Houston did it. But why did Lin, as an equal party to the new offer, go along? I can only offer two theories:

Financial Certainty: With the revised offer, Lin guaranteed himself an extra $5 million in his pocket, three years from now. That’s serious scratch for a man who had been sleeping on his brother’s couch earlier this year. And given legitimate worries that he was way overperforming during his magical 25 game coming out, taking the sure thing now makes some sense.

But why structure it in a way so punitive to New York? If it was all about certainty, Lin could have instead tried to guarantee that fourth year (or even a fifth year). At $9 million per, that’s way more downside protection, yet spreading it out in a way that didn’t push the Knicks toward the fiscal cliff.

As for the upside, forcing the Knicks to even consider ending his tenure in New York is the truest definition of Linsanity. If Lin is even 80% as good as he showed in flashes last season, fronting a very good, very hyped Knicks team had the potential to bring him tens of millions in endorsements. But as Steve Herz, who cuts celebrity endorsement deals as president of IF Management previously told my colleague Tom Van Riper: “Lin leading the Charlotte Bobcats back to respectability wouldn’t be that interesting. It’s not something that Coca-Cola is going to play $10 million for.”

Insert “Houston Rockets” into that sentence, and you get Lin’s new reality. Rather than the golden boy on an obsessed-over team in the world’s media capital, he’s now an above-average player on a below-average team in a low-profile city.

Yes, Yao Ming made the Rockets popular in China. It’s another reason why Houston made a smart move here. But it doesn’t do much for Lin.

Ego: If you believe “sources close to Lin,” he was offended that the Knicks didn’t court him pro-actively (ignoring the fact that the way the system was set up, they needed to let someone else make an offer if he wanted more money). Compounding matters, when he sent out a Tweet trying to clarify, Lin said that such blind item stories are “probably not” true – the kind of squishy response that conjures the classic celebrity “I’m sorry if anyone was offended” apology.

Others have posited that he wanted to be the go-to guy on his team, versus share with ball hog Carmelo Anthony and the rest of the star-laden Knicks.

Even speculation in these areas damages Lin’s brand. People didn’t fall in love with Lin because he was a star player. They loved him because he’s an underdog, he was humble and he won. The choice he just made, amid the circus he helped create, undermines all of those attributes.

Last night, as I watched SportsCenter, the anchors declared these developments as the formal “end of Linsanity.” But it’s more accurate to say that Jeremy Lin sold it for a $5 million note three years from now – a monumentally foolish price for a brand that could have been golden.

Bingo! Well done article. It does not get any better than that.

knickscity wrote:at the end of the day, Lin got paid for playing 25 meaningful games.

If that isn't smart, I don't know what is.

Well, great for Lin. Foolish for the Rockets in that they overpaid and let two superior pg's get away. Yes, Dragic and Lowry are both substantially better than Lin.

I think what the article is stating, which is true, is that Lin would get far far far more press for good play in NY then he would in HOU. Is any one doubting that? More press would equate to more endorsements, etc.

I never really cared about how much money Lin would generate for the Knicks or himself. I only care about putting the best possible team on the floor. I have concerns about Lin being a shoot first pg, his turnovers, him not playing at 85% during the PLAYOFFS, his shoddy ball handling, etc. I kind of chalked this up to him being young but they are still real concerns for a team that is trying to win now rather than later.

NUPE wrote:

knickscity wrote:at the end of the day, Lin got paid for playing 25 meaningful games.

If that isn't smart, I don't know what is.

Well, great for Lin. Foolish for the Rockets in that they overpaid and let two superior pg's get away. Yes, Dragic and Lowry are both substantially better than Lin.

I think what the article is stating, which is true, is that Lin would get far far far more press for good play in NY then he would in HOU. Is any one doubting that?

It was either lowry or the coach, they picked the coach.

Dragic was unrestricted, he left on his own, no way houston stops that.

VCoug wrote:

infinitilov100 wrote:

nyk4ever wrote:personally i'm sick of the whole lin thing. holfresh, this has nothing to do with you and be it as there is a blue moon tonight, it's funny we agree on this subject and we have the whole entire time...

i don't think lin is that good. i will never dis the run he had with us for that two-week stretch. those two weeks were some of the best basketball i've watched as a knicks fan in 10+ years. i still don't think that equates to lin being a proven commodity. there are many questions about lin, from his ability to hold up to the rigors of an 82game season to his ability to actually be a POINT GUARD and run a basketball team. i'm as big of a d'antoni fan as there as, but i'll be the first to tell you that pg's in his system are going to play well no matter what. i mean do i have to mention more than chris duhon? i think lin is a better player than duhon but you get my drift.

linsanity was great, i loved it - i looked forward to every single knicks game even more so than i always do, but what lin did in signing that offer-sheet with the rockets sunk him when it came to the knicks. there are no if's and's or but's about it. if he wanted to play for the knicks he wouldn't have re-negotiated and signed that poison-pill contract with the rockets. lin isn't an idiot (even if he is the dumbest harvard grad ) because he knew how that whole scenario went down would look to the knicks and to dolan. and i hate dolan, i wouldn't back that guy up for anything, but i actually think he's got a point here. lin dug his own grave, he wanted to play in houston and that's the end of it.

and with that said, i'm allanfned.

Linsanty was great but there were 2 other things that bothered me about Lin.

1) Prior to the playoffs Lin said he's 85% healthy and may not play.
2) Steve Novak showed his support for the NY Knicks by showing up in NY for the "Bird Rights" hearing but Lin was no where in sight.

1)He said he was 85% after the 3rd or 4th game, at that point it's not worth it to bring him back on a bad knee and risk further injury.
2) First, who cares who was where during the hearing. Second, he was supporting himself at least as much as he was the Knicks.

I can see why novak would have been there moreso than Lin, with the bird rights novak absolutely would not have been back, unless he took vets min.

VCoug wrote:

knickscity wrote:

VCoug wrote:

infinitilov100 wrote:

nyk4ever wrote:personally i'm sick of the whole lin thing. holfresh, this has nothing to do with you and be it as there is a blue moon tonight, it's funny we agree on this subject and we have the whole entire time...

i don't think lin is that good. i will never dis the run he had with us for that two-week stretch. those two weeks were some of the best basketball i've watched as a knicks fan in 10+ years. i still don't think that equates to lin being a proven commodity. there are many questions about lin, from his ability to hold up to the rigors of an 82game season to his ability to actually be a POINT GUARD and run a basketball team. i'm as big of a d'antoni fan as there as, but i'll be the first to tell you that pg's in his system are going to play well no matter what. i mean do i have to mention more than chris duhon? i think lin is a better player than duhon but you get my drift.

linsanity was great, i loved it - i looked forward to every single knicks game even more so than i always do, but what lin did in signing that offer-sheet with the rockets sunk him when it came to the knicks. there are no if's and's or but's about it. if he wanted to play for the knicks he wouldn't have re-negotiated and signed that poison-pill contract with the rockets. lin isn't an idiot (even if he is the dumbest harvard grad ) because he knew how that whole scenario went down would look to the knicks and to dolan. and i hate dolan, i wouldn't back that guy up for anything, but i actually think he's got a point here. lin dug his own grave, he wanted to play in houston and that's the end of it.

and with that said, i'm allanfned.

Linsanty was great but there were 2 other things that bothered me about Lin.

1) Prior to the playoffs Lin said he's 85% healthy and may not play.
2) Steve Novak showed his support for the NY Knicks by showing up in NY for the "Bird Rights" hearing but Lin was no where in sight.

1)He said he was 85% after the 3rd or 4th game, at that point it's not worth it to bring him back on a bad knee and risk further injury.
2) First, who cares who was where during the hearing. Second, he was supporting himself at least as much as he was the Knicks.

He makes good points though. I've never heard a player say 85% of minimum threshold before.

I can see why novak would have been there moreso than Lin, with the bird rights novak absolutely would not have been back, unless he took vets min.

Whether he meant 85% total or 85% of his minimum threshold who cares? When he made those comments it was clear that we didn't have a chance to beat Miami. Why risk a good young player in a lost cause, it makes absolutely no sense. And who cares about his 2nd point? Giving a **** about stuff like that is why Camby and Sprewell were traded at the beginning of last decade.

Lin made the 85% comment without thinking, thus the reason why he backtracked and explained it, then even went out of his way this summer to make it seem it was the team and and management that told him not to play, as if he wanted to and would.

Whether he would have made a difference is a non issue, either you can play or you can't.

We had plenty of injured players, but they played.

I had no issue with Lin being done before the playoffs, but don't insult my fan intelligence with some 85% nonsense.