Trailing by one or two points, or tied, in the final 24 seconds of regular-season and playoff games since 1996-97, with a minimum of 30 shots. From Alok Pattani of ESPN Stats & Information.

MELO is ranked Number ONE in FG pct at 47.7 and Chris Paul at 45.2 coming in second. This article is from last January. (Scroll down to see the chart)

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/24200/the-truth-about-kobe-bryant-in-crunch-time

This article is disputing Kobe's clutch numbers so it already arched a brow (how can you argue Kobe's Clutchness?) but I found it interesting.

nixluva wrote:We all discussed the fact that Melo has been one of the best crunchtime performers in the NBA. That's never really been questioned. It's the middle of the game where all the criticism of Melo's game comes from. It's the lack of efficiency in his game for the bulk of the game. The lack of energy on the defensive end. Things like that. He could easily be a Lebron type of boxscore filler if he really tried. He's got the talent to do that. He's never learned how to take good shots all the time. He tends to take more difficult shots than he has to and we're amazed at his ability to make them, much like Kobe, but that doesn't mean he's playing efficient BB or that it's helping his team necessarily.

His efficiency numbers are excellent, career FG, TS percentages etc ... - don't say Win Shares if you can't explain them . I don't know what numbers or stats you are using to base your claim.

Lebron is not nearly in his league in the clutch - he sucks in the clutch, unlike Wade and Melo (though the better player overall).

I also don't want to hear about the criticisms from this year - that is obvious and I criticize that as well. We are talking prior to this year.

His efficiency numbers are excellent, career FG, TS percentages

OK, now you're just imitating this guy

Bonn1997 wrote:

His efficiency numbers are excellent, career FG, TS percentages

OK, now you're just imitating this guy

LMFAO

Win Shares? Please ... Explain first.

Widely accepted stats please not something that no one understands that was invented recently.

Points = 24.7
FG % = 46 pct
Rebs = 5.8
FT Attmpts = 7.9!! at 80 pct
Assists = 3.0

These include this (crappy year)

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

His efficiency numbers are excellent, career FG, TS percentages

OK, now you're just imitating this guy

LMFAO

Win Shares? Please ... Explain first.

Widely accepted stats please not something that no one understands that was invented recently.

Points = 24.7
FG % = 46 pct
Rebs = 5.8
FT Attmpts = 7.9!! at 80 pct
Assists = 3.0

These include this (crappy year)

Here's one stat for all active players, True Shooting %

Rank 	Player 	                  TS%
1. 	Tyson Chandler 	        .6070
2. 	Steve Nash 	        .6056
3. 	Dwight Howard 	        .6019
4. 	Nene Hilario 	        .6015
5. 	Amare Stoudemire 	.5955
6. 	Kevin Martin 	        .5951
7. 	Manu Ginobili 	        .5902
8. 	David Lee 	        .5846
9. 	Dirk Nowitzki 	        .5817
10. 	Eddy Curry 	        .5811
11. 	Chauncey Billups 	.5806
12. 	Kevin Durant 	        .5798
13. 	Ray Allen 	        .5792
14. 	Corey Maggette 	        .5786
15. 	Peja Stojakovic 	.5773
16. 	Pau Gasol 	        .5769
17. 	Mike Miller 	        .5764
18. 	Kyle Korver 	        .5760
19. 	Chris Paul 	        .5731
20. 	Andrei Kirilenko 	.5710
  	Carlos Boozer 	        .5710
22. 	Chris Bosh 	        .5692
23. 	Leandro Barbosa 	.5688
  	LeBron James 	        .5688
25. 	Paul Millsap 	        .5686
26. 	Paul Pierce 	        .5682
27. 	Dwyane Wade 	        .5673
28. 	Richard Jefferson 	.5663
29. 	Brad Miller 	        .5644
30. 	Rashard Lewis 	        .5637
31. 	Brendan Haywood 	.5631
32. 	Danny Granger 	        .5626
33. 	Deron Williams 	        .5587
34. 	Michael Redd 	        .5584
35. 	Mehmet Okur 	        .5581
36. 	Shane Battier 	        .5573
37. 	Gerald Wallace 	        .5549
38. 	Kobe Bryant 	        .5547
39. 	Andre Iguodala 	        .5539
40. 	Jason Terry 	        .5535
41. 	Samuel Dalembert 	.5527
42. 	Jarrett Jack 	        .5526
43. 	Grant Hill 	        .5525
44. 	Tim Duncan 	        .5512
45. 	Devin Harris 	        .5511
46. 	Elton Brand 	        .5501
47. 	Mike Dunleavy 	        .5498
48. 	Kevin Garnett 	        .5495
49. 	Ben Gordon 	        .5493
50.     Brandon Roy             .5491

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

His efficiency numbers are excellent, career FG, TS percentages

OK, now you're just imitating this guy

LMFAO

Win Shares? Please ... Explain first.

Widely accepted stats please not something that no one understands that was invented recently.

Points = 24.7
FG % = 46 pct
Rebs = 5.8
FT Attmpts = 7.9!! at 80 pct
Assists = 3.0

These include this (crappy year)

Well if you want to go by those stats, I will comment on them

Points = 24.7 - Mediocre since it takes him almost 20 shots to get those points*
FG % = 46 pct - Mediocre for a forward
Rebs = 5.8 - Mediocre for a forward (although his average is 6.3)
FT Attmpts = 7.9!! at 80 pct - excellent
Assists = 3.0 - bad since he gets 3.0 turnovers too

Bonn1997 wrote:This is all just small sample size nonsense. You're talking about a total of 44 shots! It's crazy to reach conclusions about a player based on a sample of 44 shots. There's also a misconception that baskets in the final few seconds are more important than baskets throughout the rest of the game.

yea, and honestly, most of the true star players put teams away so there is little need for late game heroics.... usually they are on the bench chillin... up by double digits....

This is an article from when Melo was still on the Nuggets last year.

His unadjusted numbers tell a fascinating story, however. The Nuggets are actually producing worse on offense when he's in by about 2.5 points per 100 possessions, but better on defense by 5.4 points. This continues a trend over the last three years where he went from plus-8 offense to plus-4.2 and now plus-2.5 over the last three seasons.

On defense, he's gone from 5.2 points worse per 100 possessions four years ago to close to neutral to, now, making the team 5.4 points per 100 possessions better on defense.

His offense has declined in large part because his field goal percentage has fallen, which has a big effect on players who shoot a lot. His assist numbers are also down.

On defense, he's rebounding better this year and fouling less.

Why is LeBron James a More Productive Player than Carmelo Anthony?
Posted on January 13, 2011 by Dave

The Nets and Knicks May Be Better Off Without ‘Melo. Such is the argument made by Jared Diamond in today’s Wall Street Journal. According to the article…

Mr. Anthony is on pace to finish this season worth the equivalent of 6.8 wins, using the metric “Wins Produced” that predicts how statistics correlate to winning. Developed by Southern Utah University economics professor David Berri, Wins Produced devalues scoring totals in favor of other stats, particularly shooting efficiency.

Essentially, Mr. Anthony scores like an elite player, but he requires more shots to put up his numbers than a true superstar. This season, Mr. Anthony holds an effective field goal percentage—a weighted statistic that takes 3-pointers into account—of 45.1%. By comparison, LeBron James’s effective field goal percentage is 52%. A franchise player, Mr. Berri says, will produce between 25-30 wins a season. Chris Paul is on pace to have 25.8 Wins Produced this season. Last year, Mr. James had 27.2, and Dwight Howard had 22.3.

Across the past few days, Jared and I had numerous conversations on the relative merits of Carmelo Anthony. Given the length of his article (less than 300 words), much of this conversation had to be left out of the published story. But all is not lost. As I told Jared, whatever he couldn’t use in his article I would offer at the Wages of Wins Journal and/or at Huffington Post.

It is my plan to offer something at Huffington this weekend. For tonight, let me focus on one comparison that I thought was especially interesting.

The article in the Wall Street Journal makes two observations:

* Carmelo Anthony is not an elite player
* Carmelo Anthony will not dramatically impact the fortunes of the Nets or Knicks.

In constructing this argument, a comparison between Carmelo and other elite players was offered. For here, I wish to expand upon one of these comparisons. Specifically, I would like to discuss the difference between LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.

Both LeBron and Melo entered the NBA in 2003. And since that time, LeBron has scored 16,266 points while Carmelo has only scored 13,429. So clearly, King James is better.

But wait… LeBron has also appeared in 44 more games and played nearly 4,000 additional minutes. If we look at performance per 48 minutes, we see that LeBron has scored 32.5 points while Melo has scored 33.1. So Carmelo is just as potent as a scorer as LeBron. Given the primacy of scoring in the evaluation of players, it is not surprising that when people see Carmelo they see an elite player.

Of course, there is much more to the evaluation of players than scoring totals. And when we consider everything these players do – via Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] – we see the following:

* LeBron James’ Wins Produced in 2010-11: 10.4 [0.328 WP48
* Carmelo Anthony’s Wins Produced in 201o-11: 3.1 [0.140 WP48]
* LeBron James’ Wins Produced in 2009-10: 27.2 [0.441 WP48]
* Carmelo Anthony’s Wins Produced in 2009-10: 6.8 [0.108 WP48]
* LeBron James’ Career Wins Produced: 150.5 [0.310 WP48]
* Carmelo Anthony’s Career Wins Produced: 33.5 [0.083 WP48]

These numbers suggest that Carmelo is capable of being above average (average WP48 is 0.100) but for his career he is slightly below average (partially because – like LeBron – he has apparently spent time at power forward). In contrast, LeBron is at least three times better than average. And last year, LeBron posted a WP48 that was four times mark of an average player.

Okay, James is much more productive than Anthony. Now let’s explore why. What follows are the per 48 minute box score numbers for each player.

When we look at free throw attempts, points scored, rebounds, turnovers, net possessions, and blocked shots, neither player is consistently better when we consider performance this year, last year, and across each player’s respective careers. Given that LeBron is consistently more productive, we must look beyond these factors for an explanation.

And what do we have left? Shooting efficiency from the field, steals, and assists. The difference with respect to steals is actually quite small. So the real difference between LeBron and Carmelo is that

* LeBron is much more likely to hit the shots from the field he takes.
* As a consequence, LeBron requires fewer shots to score essentially the same number of points Carmelo scores per 48 minutes.
* And perhaps because LeBron is taking fewer shots, he can spend more time looking for his teammates.

So it is essentially differences in shooting efficiency (and assists) that have resulted in LeBron producing about five times the wins produced by Melo.

The difference between LeBron and Melo led me to note the following in my conversation with Jared (not in the article, since again, he was limited to 300 words):

Basketball is a simple game where the objective is to take the ball away from the opponent (before they score), keep the ball away from the opponent, and put the ball in the basket. If you can do this, you will win.

Player evaluation in the NBA, though, focuses primarily on scoring totals. Scoring totals, though, are a function of shooting efficiency and shot attempts. When we compare LeBron and Carmelo, we see two players with very similar scoring totals. But LeBron is a more efficient scorer. In other words, Carmelo can only match LeBron’s scoring totals because he is more willing to take shots away from his teammates. LeBron can score as much as Carmelo with fewer shots, and since LeBron is a more willing passer, he is able to set up efficient shots for his teammates as well. As a consequence – although LeBron and Carmelo are not much different with respect to possession factors (i.e. rebounds, steals, and turnovers) – LeBron produces far more wins than Carmelo.

Let me close with three observations.

* NBA fans probably accept the idea that Carmelo Anthony is not as productive as LeBron James.
* However, I think many NBA fans don’t think the difference is quite as great as it appears to be when we consider Wins Produced.
* And those who consider Wins Produced may not have known that these players were quite similar with respect to possession factors but very different with respect to shooting efficiency from the field.

Then again, maybe you already knew all of this. And if that is the case, you just read more than 1,000 words that did nothing to further your knowledge of Carmelo, LeBron, or the NBA (and hopefully I will do better with my next post).

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

His efficiency numbers are excellent, career FG, TS percentages

OK, now you're just imitating this guy

LMFAO

Win Shares? Please ... Explain first.

Widely accepted stats please not something that no one understands that was invented recently.

Points = 24.7
FG % = 46 pct
Rebs = 5.8
FT Attmpts = 7.9!! at 80 pct
Assists = 3.0

These include this (crappy year)

Well if you want to go by those stats, I will comment on them

Points = 24.7 - Mediocre since it takes him almost 20 shots to get those points* -
FG % = 46 pct - Mediocre for a forward
Rebs = 5.8 - Mediocre for a forward (although his average is 6.3)
FT Attmpts = 7.9!! at 80 pct - excellent
Assists = 3.0 - bad since he gets 3.0 turnovers too

then I shall comment as well.

Points = 24.7 - Mediocre since it takes him almost 20 shots to get those points* - Really? 19.2 to be exact; so kobe at 25.1 I guess is mediocre too at 19.3 shots? Larry bird, 24.3 on 19.3 shots? Nuff said!!

FG % = 46 pct - Mediocre for a forward - Paul Pierce 44.7, Durant 46.6

Rebs = 6.3 - Mediocre for a forward - HUH????? James Worthy 5.1, Paul Pierce 6.0, Durant 6.5, Dr J. 6.7, Scottie Pippen 6.4

FT Attmpts = 7.9!! at 80 pct - excellent - Thanks!

Assists = 3.0 - bad since he gets 3.0 turnovers too - It has improved this year to 3.8/2.7. Which is very respectable. But career wise, def not great. For context, Durant 2.8/3.1 (thought durant was better here), Pierce is 3.9/2.9

I smell a spin coming ...

You wanna say you just don't like the guy, fine but don't spin.

First, mediocre is not the same as bad. It's just OK. Kobe's shooting efficiency is OK and a little better than Melo's but not great. He's outstanding at everything else though. Pierce and Durant have much higher TS%s than Melo, which is what you should really look at. I probably shouldn't have even addressed FG% since it's not a good stat but I was too tempted. But the league average is 45%; so 46% is mediocre no matter how desperate you are to support the guy.

Melo's rebounding rate (rbs/48 min) puts him 14th in the league among SFs this year. Teams have 30 starting SFs. So that's OK but not great (i.e., mediocre). In previous years, he's been much higher though and I was too harsh in my assessment.

FT attempts: these are excellent as I said and point to his potential. However, what's more important is that his free throws still help him to have only average overall offensive efficiency (TS%, points per shot).

Assist/TO: Yeah, it has improved this year. If everything else hadn't gone downhill, I'd be happy about that. Context: Assist/TO is a huge weakness to the otherwise outstanding game that Durant has. Pierce is a very good passer.

Sorry you don't like it but this is a brutally honest assessment of him statistically. I'm comparing him to league averages and not impressed.