Let's start with this right off the bat:
David Lee, Al Harrington and Anthony Randolph each have better player efficiency ratings than the Knicks' $100 million man, Amare Stoudemire, this season. Yes, Anthony Randolph (15.9 PER) has been more productive with his minutes than Stoudemire (15.7 PER).
The sobering reality in New York is that in just a year's time, Stoudemire has gone from MVP candidate to a league-average player, at least statistically.
So we have to ask:
What happened to Amare Stoudemire?
The 7-11 Knicks are reeling and there are a number of reasons for their disappointing start, but right at the top of the list is the sudden decline of their big catch in the summer of 2010 sweepstakes. In his second campaign in a Knicks uniform, Stoudemire is averaging 17.8 points, 8.4 rebounds -- fantastic numbers for an NBA player, but not one who is due $83 million, or an average of $20.8 million annually, through 2015-16.
And a deeper look into Stoudemire's stat line explains why his production has fallen off a cliff: He can't hit a shot. With a quarter of the season in the books, the 29-year-old power forward has shot 42.6 percent from the floor.
How bad is that? Consider this: Over the past 40 years, it's only happened three times that someone at his height or taller (6-foot-10) shot this often (15 shots per game) and this badly (42.6 percent). And the three players who achieved the sorry feat (Clifford Robinson, Derrick Coleman and Toni Kukoc) each shot at least 120 3-pointers in those seasons. Nearly all of Stoudemire's shots have come from inside the arc.
In other words, a traditional big man has never shot this much and this badly in about half a century. You'd have to dial it back to Nate Thurmond in the mid-60s to find a precedent.
So why haven't his shots gone in? This is the scary part. When we put the magnifying glass on Stoudemire's shot selection, you'll notice two things: One, he has been brutal outside the immediate basket area and two, when he does get into the basket area, he's getting blocked at an excessive rate.
Let's start with the stuffed shots, which is alarming coming from a guy who used to make a living by dunking on mere mortals. Only Derrick Rose got blocked more times than Stoudemire last season according to Hoopdata.com, but this season Stoudemire's blocked rate has only increased -- drastically. On the season, Stoudemire has been blocked on 10.2 percent of his shots, which is up from 8.1 percent last season. The average power forward gets swatted on 7.1 percent of his shots.
It has been difficult to watch Stoudemire's struggles this season. In a Jan. 18 loss to the Phoenix Suns, he missed 15 of his 22 shots from the floor, turned the ball over six times and got blocked another four times. In Wednesday's loss to the Cavaliers, Stoudemire got blocked twice by Anderson Varejao, once while Varejao stood straight up with his hands in the air in order to not draw a foul. Stoudemire tried to make a floater, but couldn't get enough lift to rise above Varejao's outstretched hands. Varejao blocked his shot without even jumping.
But the swats are just the tip of the iceberg. When looking at indicators of lost athleticism, you can't help wondering if something's up. Stoudemire's and-one rate (percentage of shots called for an and-one) has dropped precipitously from 6.5 percent in 2009-10, to 4.9 percent last season, to 3.3 percent this season. He has tallied one and-one over his past eight games; in his last season in Phoenix, he muscled for one every game on average. It's always a troubling sign when the blocked rate and and-one rate go in opposite directions.
The defensive indicators are also stunning. His block rate has vanished almost completely, dropping from 3.8 percent last season to a career-low 1.1 percent this season. Subjectively, one could say that he's lost the majority of his lift -- whether that's due to age, a residual ankle soreness or something else, but we can't know for sure. Objectively looking at the numbers, the red flags are everywhere.
And that jump shot? The news gets worse. Synergy Sports tracking tells us that 101 of Stoudemire's 244 field goals are jump shots. Of the 66 players with at least 100 jump shots this season, only Tyreke Evans and DeMar DeRozan have a lower effective field goal percentage (which accounts for the added value of a 3-pointer) than Stoudemire's 32.7 percent rate. If Stoudemire was compensating for his eroding athleticism by migrating to the perimeter, that would be one thing, but the Knicks simply can't survive with these abysmal results.
As my Insider colleague Bradford Doolittle pointed out, Stoudemire's game has changed dramatically this season -- and it's not for the better. Much of Stoudemire's immense value is generated from the pick-and-roll game, where his dynamic athleticism can be leveraged by a crafty point guard. The only problem is that the Knicks don't have one. His offense resulting from the pick-and-roll has dwindled from 9.9 percent last season to 4.8 percent this season. Amazingly, just 14 of Stoudemire's 284 points have directly resulted from a pick-and-roll catch on the move. In his heyday with Steve Nash, he could tally 14 points off the pick-and-roll by halftime.
The Knicks' offense has been a disaster thus far without a legitimate playmaker. Carmelo Anthony is suffering through a down shooting season as well, but he doesn't rely on the competence of his point guard quite like Stoudemire does. Stoudemire has resorted to being an isolation machine with Tyson Chandler parked under the basket and rookie Iman Shumpert hijacking the offense whenever he pleases.
And we haven't even talked much about his embarrassing defense, but he's consistently ranked as one of the league's most skewed one-way players. What happens when he can't produce offensively anymore? Even though there are more than 45 games left, it's hard to imagine a worse start for Stoudemire unless he sustained a serious injury.
Speaking of injuries, it's worth noting that many people around the league considered it a medical miracle that Stoudemire was able to play as well as he did last season given the state of his knees. It is simply very unlikely that he will ever be able to regain the athleticism he had in Phoenix, much less be a star player going forward.
With his shooting woes reaching historic depths and more than $80 million remaining on his contract, the time for Knicks fans to panic about Stoudemire is right about now.
Tom Haberstroh covers the NBA for ESPN Insider and ESPN The Magazine. He is also writing about the Miami Heat this season for the ESPN.com Heat Index and contributes to Insider's college basketball, college football and baseball coverage. He contributes to ESPN The Magazine and ESPNNewYork.com and previously worked as a consultant for ESPN Stats & Information and as an analyst for Hoopdata.com. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
1/27/2012 1:37 PM
