The Knicks, Carmelo, D’Antoni, and being set up for success vs. failure

It’s panic time in New York.

Not across the board, mind you. There are always those that seek calmer seas, that urge for patience, that understand that all teams go through winning and losing streaks, and just because times are rough it does not mean you throw out the mustached baby with the What-Toney-Dougalas-Do bathwater. But in general? Yeah, it’s a four-alarm, women-and-Shumperts-first nightmare scenario down at ol’ MSG. The Knicks are losing, and worse, looking like a trainwreck while losing, despite the star power, despite the pay roll, despite the big market, and someone’s got to pay.

Can’t blame Amar’e, the problems go beyond him, and it’s hard to say he’s getting opportunities and blowing them. Can’t blame Chandler, he is what he is, and is doing what he was brought in to do. Can’t blame Toney Douglas, it’s not like anyone thought he was anything other than Toney Douglas. And you definitely can’t blame Melo. Because Melo is the star New York demands, Melo scores a lot of points, and Knicks fans had to defend the trade far too much to pin anything on the All-Star icon.

So naturally, it’s Mike D’Antoni’s fault.

*********

My wife worked at Starbucks for several years when she was younger, and soulless, uniqueness-crushing, overpaid-beans corporate overlords that you may think they are, they treat their employees fairly well for service industry. One of the things she took away from that experience was a tenet they use with their employees, the idea of being set up for success. It’s nothing new or original, it’s an old business edict that has been passed down and filtered (wocka-wocka-wocka) for the brewing behemoth. But my wife liked the idea so much she’s kept it with her throughout her career and it’s rubbed off on me as well. The concept is simple. You have to put people in a position that sets them up to use their talents and strengths to succeed, not place them into a set of conditions conducive to failure and hope they muscle through it. There are challenges in any situation, but you have to be given the tools and opportunity to thrive, not dropped into the ocean without a life vest and told to make your way to Pearl Harbor, good luck.

The Knicks didn’t so much drop D’Antoni in the water, as they asked him to do what he does best, climb mountains, gave him a bunch of climbing gear, rations, cold weather clothes and all the technology needed to reach the summit of Kilimanjaro and then when he reached the tree line, kidnapped him, and airlifted him and all his equipment to the desert, then said “Now, survive for a month and build an oasis using what you have. What? Adapt to your environment!”

D’Antoni’s a mountain climber. He’s not a desert survivor. He wants to reach the summit, not build Burning Man. And the result is a disaster that sets him up perfectly for failure.

Numbers are tricky. I read the other day that the Knicks have a better record at this point in the season than they did last year, with a worse overall roster. And if that’s the case, why is there so much panic? How can we pin the Knicks’ troubles on the roster and not D’Antoni if he had a better team last year and did less with them? That’s when the word “feel” comes into play. I’m all for advanced metrics. I’m for analysis and point differential and PER and Synergy and taking every single metric you can use to evaluate players and teams and combining that with as much anecdotal information as you can get. But there are times when you need to trust the numbers and times when you need to trust the eyes and discerning between the two is not so much as an art as it is trying to harness magic with an erector set.

All that said, the Knicks last year at this time were a much better team than what is being thrown out on the Garden floor each night.

If you’re building a Mike D’Antoni team, one that can win, with everything we know about him, here’s essentially what you need. Point guard with pure passing skills and a decent jumper. He doesn’t have to be Nash’s lights out 50-40-90 from the field, because D’Antoni’s offense is going to bump his numbers. We’ve seen it across the board over the years. You want a power forward who understands the pick and roll, who can operate from the elbow. You want a wing who can play shooting guard or small forward, and a forward who can play either spot. You want passers, but you want that point guard to be the primary ball-handler and creator. You need playmakers, because the entire system is built on options and decision making. What you do not want is a ball-stopper. And if you have a power forward who is very much the tip of the spear and not a great passer? You want someone who’s going to create opportunities for him without letting him swallow up usage like Godzilla.

“But what about defense?” you cry. “D’Antoni never cares about defense!” That riddle’s more complicated than it seems because while D’Antoni’s system never places defense first in front of offense, a large part of the problems involves the athletic bigs leaking out in transition after a miss to enable the fast break instead of crashing the boards. The focus on creating fast break opportunities diminishes the defense. But yeah, you’re going to want to bring in two key defensive proponents. A wing defender who can lock down the best perimeter weapon, and, essentially, Tyson Chandler. You want a big who can run the floor but is also a beast down low.

You want to share the ball. You want to light up the scoreboard. You want to play smart, efficient, and fast.

And D’Antoni had that team, or at least the foundation of that team.

Then, depending on who you believe, Isiah Thomas got involved, or James Dolan micromanaged.

The reality of Isiah Thomas’ continued involvement in the Knicks franchise is probably somewhere between two extremes. On one side, there are those that say he occasionally advises, remains a close friend of Dolan’s, and isn’t nearly the force he’s made out to be. On the other, he’s the one hosting stars at multiple events and at FIU over the summer, the one who constantly comments on players and who, according to multiple reports, is who pushed the Knicks into giving up the King’s ransom for Anthony. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

But it’s nearly impossible to believe that this was what D’Antoni wanted. He’s made the requisite comments of support, just as he did in Phoenix when Steve Kerr made the move to trade Shawn Marion for Shaq. Six months later, D’Antoni was gone. And just like then, the pressure and blame for the team losing has turned not on the roster gutting that was made in order to acquire an elite scorer, a genius in ISO, a big time player and a decent rebounder who is a horrid fit for D’antoni’s system has been placed on D’Antoni.

This isn’t to say Anthony could never work under D’Antoni. Using him as the tip of the spear along with Amar’e Stoudemire would work fine. As long as there was a single guard to make it work. A single point guard to initiate the offense, to run the pick and roll, to make the defense respect the ball handler, to run the offense. There isn’t. And because of the gap between Melo and everyone else, there’s deferral. “Get the ball to Melo and let him work.” That’s the polar opposite of everything that has made D’Antoni successful in the past.

The response is usually that the coach needs to adapt to his personnel. Two problems with this. One, the Knicks have. They play slow. They play in a half-court set. They run the ball through Anthony. D’Antoni has done what should be prescribed if you had Anthony, Stoudemire and a bunch of scrubs along with non-offense Chandler. The problem is that team is not built to succeed. The only system that fits this particular team? The triangle. I’ve never been a proponent of the triangle. It’s never succeeded without Phil Jackson. It’s never succeeded without Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant, two singular once-in-a-lifetime talents who also had no problem breaking the offense in tiny pieces when they wanted to. But Anthony is just the player to do just that. Chandler low, Stoudemire at the elbow, Melo on the perimeter. It fits snugly. And yet the only man that can run it is staring at moose in Montana and enjoying a heaping helping of peyote. (Not really, but that’s how you prefer to envision Phil, isn’t it?)

The other popular line of thought is that D’Antoni simply isn’t successful. But the Suns were a perennial 50-win team with D’Antoni running the team he wanted, when he was set up for success. You can point to Steve Nash all you want, but Nash wasn’t Nash in Dallas. It was a relationship that transformed the Suns, between personnel and D’Antoni, and D’Antoni was as involved as anyone in building the roster. Right on down to making players like Boris Diaw into key cogs.

So what’s the answer for New York? Baron Davis could help. For all the problems with Davis, he posted 8.7 assists per 36 minutes last year on a dreadful Cleveland club and a 40+% assist rate. Iman Shumpert‘s development will help. More time will help. And the Knicks won’t be this bad continually. The Wizards, for example, got a win this week and then followed it up with a competitive showing against Denver. The Knicks will have a run.

But as the Knicks family begins to etch out D’Antoni’s tombstone, the Denver Nuggets enter town Saturday night as the kind of team D’Anoni would do wonders with. The Nuggets had a wealth of options after the trade, and fine-tuned it to what was best for George Karl. They set up Karl to succeed and the returns are impressive. Meanwhile, look at what’s happened since the trade. An uninspiring finish to the season. A dreadful sweep to the Celtics. Donnie Walsh bailing. And D’Antoni left to answer for decisions he didn’t make. Consider the following from the New York Post:

“They traded chemistry for celebrity,’’ one Walsh confidant said. “It wasn’t a basketball trade.’’

“I just miss the energy and free-spirited way the team played,’’ one person close to Walsh said of the pre-Melo Knicks. “On any given night, it was anyone’s game to be hot.’’

That’s the team that D’Antoni wanted to coach, that he needed to coach. That roster, even minus a few players but with Chandler added, would not be here. We evaluate trades in terms of winners and losers, even though the returns take time to sort out and it’s all dependent on what direction the teams are headed. But a few things are clear as we head into Saturday night’s visit of the Nuggets to MSG.

Carmelo Anthony won, getting what he wanted and none of the scorn LeBron James took on.

And Mike D’Antoni lost the worst thing for someone in a work environment. He lost being set up to succeed.

Knicks disaster unfolding before our very eyes

By Ken Berger

Last we'd seen Amar'e Stoudemire, he was planted on the Knicks' bench as the buzzer sounded after a 14-point loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. Stoudemire sat there for a minute or so, towel over his head, eyes aimed downward. It must have seemed like an hour.

It was the Knicks' fifth straight loss, and they weren't even competitive. If only Stoudemire knew it was about to get worse.

The Knicks lost their sixth straight Friday night, and this one hurt. This one was in double-overtime, and this one was to the Denver Nuggets, whose trade of Carmelo Anthony to New York has rendered the briefly resurrected franchise flat on its back again. It was Nuggets 119, Knicks 114, but those were hardly the digits that mattered.

Those were nine and 30. Nine field-goal attempts for Stoudemire, and 30 for Carmelo Anthony. Stoudemire didn't attempt a shot for the entire fourth quarter or entire first overtime, and finally put one up late in the second OT -- a 3-point heave that he made, a moment that must have made Knicks fans collectively want to heave.

All the while, Anthony kept shooting and shooting -- not a viable option around for him to set up and not a sheepish bone in his body. Anthony started 2-for-12, 3-for-17, and finally shot the Knicks back into the game in the fourth quarter, when he interpreted some of D'Antoni's whiteboard scribbles as this: "Melo, you get the ball and dribble around a lil' bit and then put up another shot against triple coverage."

It went in. The Knicks lived to fight another five minutes, and then another. It is a death march, one isolation at a time.

All of this madness -- a roster with no depth, no 3-point shooters and no point guard, not a mention what the Associated Press' Brian Mahoney correctly referred to as a $100 million decoy in Stoudemire -- could result in D'Antoni losing his job at Madison Square Garden. MSG chairman James L. Dolan, who pushed the Anthony trade through over the objections of D'Antoni and former team president Donnie Walsh, wasn't at the game Friday night. Neither was I, but I've seen this musical before.

The inevitable speculation that the star-rich and role-player-poor Knicks' 6-10 record at the lockout-shortened quarter pole will cost D'Antoni his job will only make Dolan less inclined to fire him. Could Dolan resist, even if the Knicks go to Charlotte Tuesday and lose for the second time this month to the Bobcats, a team that one rival executive told me this week has the "worst roster in the league?" Don't bet against it. But make no mistake: D'Antoni resides not at the Garden right now, but in no-man's land.

Unless Phil Jackson is walking through that door -- and at some point, don't put it past him -- D'Antoni will live to coach another day. But those days are becoming increasingly dim, as all of D'Antoni's worst fears about the roster-gutting trade for Anthony last February are coming true. And dare I say, it's even worse than D'Antoni thought, because he didn't even think the Melo makeover -- and subsequent decision to dump Chauncey Billups for Tyson Chandler -- would render the Knicks' once undeniable franchise cornerstone, Stoudemire, inoperable. Much like his knees.

"I don't think those two guys can play together," a rival GM told me Friday, and he wasn't talking about Danilo Gallinari and Al Harrington, who surely can. Gallinari, whose first-round selection by the Knicks was championed by D'Antoni, came home to drop 37 points on his former team Friday night. Harrington scored and danced and preened his way to 24 points on a Melo-like 24 shots. It must have been hideous to watch, if you were the guy who used to coach them.

The rival GM was referring, of course, to Anthony and Stoudemire, whose ill-fitting gifts and games should give pause to any superstar looking to team up with another one, as the trend in the NBA currently dictates. Their union on a team with no point guard to direct traffic and no 3-point release valves for D'Antoni's offense is more than a cautionary tale of "careful what you wish for." It's a collision of egos and elite but conflicting talent that threatens to squander the 2½ years of skilled excavation undertaken by Walsh, who put the Knicks back on the map only to see them nearly wiped off it in less than half the time.

It's easy to point to the Nuggets' 29-12 record since the Anthony trade, and juxtapose it with the Knicks' 20-23 record. But this is about much more than that. In the NBA, it's always about control and clout, and Anthony -- having teamed with Creative Artists Agency to orchestrate a gutting of the Knicks' roster to get him -- clearly has both. This, according to sources, is what D'Antoni feared from the beginning. And it is playing out before our eyes.

If you give up four starting players and at least one first-round pick for Anthony, and give him a max extension as part of the deal, the fear was that Anthony -- and CAA -- would have the power. And that power would dwarf D'Antoni's, and also Stoudemire's. That the whole rancid concoction also has transformed Stoudemire into a $100 million version of Jason Collins -- wandering around, setting screens, attempting nine shots in a double-overtime game -- is a stunning lesson in the sheer breadth and power of star/agent capital in the NBA.

Now D'Antoni, who built his reputation hand-in-hand with Steve Nash, has only one lifeline left. And to Baron Davis in this political election season, I paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen and say, "I know Steve Nash. Steve Nash is a friend of mine. And Baron, you're no Steve Nash." But that is where D'Antoni must look for a lifeline. He has no choice.

Davis, a potentially electrifying talent when healthy and engaged, could be back sometime next month. Whenever he returns, it'll be his job to solve the riddle that has flummoxed the greatest offensive mind in the sport: how to win with Anthony and Stoudemire on the same team, with the term "team" being loosely employed because there isn't much of one around them.

Could it get better with at least a serviceable point guard on the floor? It could. If you think Anthony is going to be going 10-for-30 for long, you don't understand how gifted and dominant he can be. But to this point, I have been dead wrong about him. I thought he would embrace D'Antoni's system, which would've won LeBron James and Dwyane Wade a championship by now if they'd come to New York. Don't believe me? Then why are the Heat running a unique staple of D'Antoni's offense in Miami, and blowing people's doors off with it?

It isn't D'Antoni's fault; that much should be clear. But it wasn't Paul Westphal's fault in Sacramento, and it wasn't the fault of anyone Allen Iverson ran out of town in Philadelphia, either. In the NBA, power always wins and the player always outlasts the coach.

Even if the coach didn't want any part of this in the first place.

And since I read the book 7 seconds or less, I've been a huge fan of D'Antony, even though I would've loved to see him feature Gallo a little more.

He'S gonna be a scapegoat soon, and nobody will ever accept how tough his tenure in NY would have been with constant roster changes, teh wait for Lebron, etc.

If he'S not burnt out after this, he will have learnt a awful lot.

AnubisADL wrote:Seems the Knicks have taken the Miami Heats spot as NBA whipping boy.

To me this is just an issue of supply and demand. Easier to replace the coach than our star players. Easier to replace a PF who can only score with a PG assisting him.

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
(H. L. Mencken)

raven wrote:

AnubisADL wrote:Seems the Knicks have taken the Miami Heats spot as NBA whipping boy.

To me this is just an issue of supply and demand. Easier to replace the coach than our star players. Easier to replace a PF who can only score with a PG assisting him.

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
(H. L. Mencken)

I dont really care about the issue as much as I care about solutions. I get it. D'Antoni needs a superstar PG. Amare needs a Superstar PG. Melo needs to pass more.

If the solution is getting a star PG and we cant get one with out assets then we need to look at alternate solutions. We can talk to we are blue in the face about the issues but in the mean time we'll still be losing.

martin wrote:

AnubisADL wrote:

raven wrote:

AnubisADL wrote:Seems the Knicks have taken the Miami Heats spot as NBA whipping boy.

To me this is just an issue of supply and demand. Easier to replace the coach than our star players. Easier to replace a PF who can only score with a PG assisting him.

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
(H. L. Mencken)

I dont really care about the issue as much as I care about solutions. I get it. D'Antoni needs a superstar PG. Amare needs a Superstar PG. Melo needs to pass more.

If the solution is getting a star PG and we cant get one with out assets then we need to look at alternate solutions. We can talk to we are blue in the face about the issues but in the mean time we'll still be losing.

I wouldn't say either needs a superstar PG, Felton was adequate.

Luke Ridenour would be perfect

mrKnickShot wrote:

martin wrote:

AnubisADL wrote:

raven wrote:

AnubisADL wrote:Seems the Knicks have taken the Miami Heats spot as NBA whipping boy.

To me this is just an issue of supply and demand. Easier to replace the coach than our star players. Easier to replace a PF who can only score with a PG assisting him.

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
(H. L. Mencken)

I dont really care about the issue as much as I care about solutions. I get it. D'Antoni needs a superstar PG. Amare needs a Superstar PG. Melo needs to pass more.

If the solution is getting a star PG and we cant get one with out assets then we need to look at alternate solutions. We can talk to we are blue in the face about the issues but in the mean time we'll still be losing.

I wouldn't say either needs a superstar PG, Felton was adequate.

Luke Ridenour would be perfect

absolutely. he'd be a great fit for us.

loweyecue wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:Coaches who gets screwed still get fired - life sux sometimes but dems da breaks

Oh I have no doubt will get fired or not extended whichever comes first. And in some measure he has definitely been compensated for what he has gone through. I just think its useless to make him the scapegoat, I have no expectations that any other coach can come here and do better. MDA will go because this franchise has piss poor leadership as shown in the articles here.

So you believe that he shares zero blame? That Jax could not have done any better? That he would not demand more respect and get that extra gear out of his stars?

I don't think you give Jax enough credit while you might be giving MDA a bit too much.

Either way, we would only know after/if PJax coaches here.

While I still believe that MDA takes too much blame here cause he is failing in NY, he gets too much credit for what he did in PHX.

mrKnickShot wrote:

loweyecue wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:Coaches who gets screwed still get fired - life sux sometimes but dems da breaks

Oh I have no doubt will get fired or not extended whichever comes first. And in some measure he has definitely been compensated for what he has gone through. I just think its useless to make him the scapegoat, I have no expectations that any other coach can come here and do better. MDA will go because this franchise has piss poor leadership as shown in the articles here.

So you believe that he shares zero blame? That Jax could not have done any better? That he would not demand more respect and get that extra gear out of his stars?

I don't think you give Jax enough credit while you might be giving MDA a bit too much.

Either way, we would only know after/if PJax coaches here.

While I still believe that MDA takes too much blame here cause he is failing in NY, he gets too much credit for what he did in PHX.

This is about the oddest post ever in response to what loweyecue wrong.

He doesn't mention one ounce of blame or PJax and yet you question him on both in a way that suggests loweyecue has stated an opinion on both.

Context?

mrKnickShot wrote:

martin wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

loweyecue wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:Coaches who gets screwed still get fired - life sux sometimes but dems da breaks

Oh I have no doubt will get fired or not extended whichever comes first. And in some measure he has definitely been compensated for what he has gone through. I just think its useless to make him the scapegoat, I have no expectations that any other coach can come here and do better. MDA will go because this franchise has piss poor leadership as shown in the articles here.

So you believe that he shares zero blame? That Jax could not have done any better? That he would not demand more respect and get that extra gear out of his stars?

I don't think you give Jax enough credit while you might be giving MDA a bit too much.

Either way, we would only know after/if PJax coaches here.

While I still believe that MDA takes too much blame here cause he is failing in NY, he gets too much credit for what he did in PHX.

This is about the oddest post ever in response to what loweyecue wrong.

He doesn't mention one ounce of blame or PJax and yet you question him on both in a way that suggests loweyecue has stated an opinion on both.

Context?

"have no expectations that any other coach can come here and do better" (I assume that this implies/includes PJax, no? Who else? He is the one everyone is clamoring for)

This line of thought is that MDA is as good as any other coach including Phil Jackson and I believe that 10 rings count for alot and he has proven that he gets alot out of stars.

MDA has not proved this as of yet. So I don't agree with the above statement. MDA is not Red Aurbach but I do agree that he was handed a bad situation. So, if the point is that even though PJax is probably a better coach but this organization / team is so screwed up that no coach, even the great Big Chief Triangle can repair, maybe thats true but it remains to be seen. I do think he can do somewhat better.

I wasn't thinking Phil Jac when I wrote that. I was supporting the idea in the article of how people are set up to fail. If you look up my prior posts you will see I have said should only be fired if there is a viable replacement with real credentials. I am not sold that Pkax wants to come here now, next season? Maybe.