First let's set the scene. A summer ago, the league watched Cleveland and Toronto (and to a degree Phoenix) get left with nothing for letting their free agent
get to free agency.
While Denver got a nice package for Melo' (and could because of the CBA leverage they held), they went through 2/3rds of a season of turmoil.
The signs are already there the teams of future FA stars have learned the lessons. Utah shocks the NBA by getting out from under both possibilities preemptively. It is getting less likely that teams are going to go through what Cleveland and Denver went through.
So what is going the Knicks way to get Paul?
- Paul wants to be there. I think we can be reasonably sure he does at this point.
- The new CBA won't hold leverage over Paul. It may very well be restrictive (we'll get to that in a moment), but the uncertainty won't be a factor. He can't sign an extension with New Orleans until there is a new CBA. He won't need to fear the unknown the way 'Melo did. If the new CBA screws him, there isn't a thing he can do about it.
- New Orleans is a lot like Cleveland-James. They have a few nice players, but take Paul off the squad and they are lottery.
- Paul has been relatively healthy this year, which mean they'll solidly make the play-offs, but won't be a threat. They won't get Paul any help via the draft.
- Knicks, if they do not sign any players to contracts past next season, can get in the neighborhood of the cap space needed.
- There may not be that many teams with the need and means to get Paul, at least those who will be contenders, and as Paul sees all his contemporary starts lining up, he's not gonna want to go to some small market on the outside looking in.
I'd recommend looking at team's payrolls in 2012. I'm not seeing a lot of fits.
Bulls, Thunder, Celtics? Already got young PG's. Have other needs.
San Antonio? They have a PG too, and Ginobli and Duncan are near the end.
Dallas? No cap room, not a lot of offer and Nowitski in also on the wrong side of 34.
Orlando. Only if Howard stays AND they figure out how to get Paul. No cap room and not a lot of parts.
Lakers - probably targeting Howard but a threat for sure if they strike out and Bynum can stay healthy.
Miami - nothing to trade, no cap space to speak of. Would be overkill anyway.
Biggest threat might be the Clippers. Young talent and cap space. But Sterling, their history and the shadow they play in looms large.
- He has no ties or loyalty to the Hornets ownership
What is not going the Knicks way.
- Possibly the new CBA. A franchise, tag, or hugely advantageous new Bird Rights, or a hard cap kills it for everyone. Can't overlook this.
- NBA needs to find a new owner for the Hornets. The league running the team couldn't make the deal the Knicks would need to make.
- Knicks don't have a lot of talent to offer. Not if, ands, or buts about it. Certainly not comparable to what Utah just got or the Nuggets got. They cannot overwhelm NO with picks or players.
So how do they pull it off?
The Blueprint.
Chris Paul, again, freed from the uncertainly of the new CBA, tells New Orleans new ownership group that unless traded to NY, he WILL leave somewhere as a free agent in the off season. No if, ands or buts. He will not extend with another team in season.
At that point what can the Knicks give to entice New Orleans? It's not what they can give, it's what they can take.
Knicks could conceivably take back Emeka Okafor AND Trevor Ariza in a Paul deal. Here's the math:
Paul (16.4), Okafor (12.5), and Ariza (6.8) make $35.7 between them next season, with Okafor and Ariza are due $44m between then in the subsequent two seasons.
How can the Knicks match $35.7m?
First you chop off 25% due to the 125% trade rule, which brings you down to $28.5m. if the Knicks can find that in 2011-12 salary, a trade can be made and that saves New Orleans another $8.2m, bringing their running total up to $52.2m in savings while they rebuild.
Do the Knicks have that? They can.
Billups (14.2), Turiaf (4.4), Balkman (1.7) get you up to $20.3m, leaving you another $8.2m to find. The first two are expiring, but Balkman has 1 more year, so subtract his $1.7m off what you're saving NO. But Knicks throw in $3m and the savings now jump back up to $53.5m.
The other $8.2 comes from a variety of sources
Douglas (1.1) and Walker (.9) are $2m.
Rautins is $800k. Williams, Shelden, Carter can all be signed to 1-year minimum deals and traded 2 months into the season. Anybody can really.
Azubuike can be signed for whatever the Knicks want to give him to a one-year deal. Giving him more money than he rightfully deserves would give the Knicks an extra expiring for the season. Would be up to the Knicks to find the number that makes sense.
And there is Brewer at a $5m QO.
A word about this - Brewer likely will NOT going to command more than this on the open market, so the Knicks would be doing him a favor just to extend him the QO. What do they ask for in turn? Assurance he will waive his right to block a trade should the opportunity present itself.
So the money, if the Knicks prepare correctly, could be there. Brewer and Azubuike could conceivably let you take out Balkman too.
Then of course you have Fields, and the 2011 first (making around $1.25m) as the talent sweeteners.
So the outstanding questions are these?
Would the new ownership of a borderline team who IS lottery bound without their star, at risk of losing him for NOTHING and would certainly have to rebuild without him, trade their star for not a heck of lot of talent or picks back, but for $53.3m (maybe $55m) in payroll savings?
I can't say the answer is yes, but I think it's a legitimate question to ask... and again I’d suggest fans look at the payrolls and needs of other contenders and near contenders. I don’t think you’ll find a lot of options that make sense other than the Clips.
2/23/2011 6:32 PM