http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704803604576078183871144402.html?KEYWORDS=carmelo+anthony

Considering the unending series of rumors these days, it almost feels inevitable that Denver superstar Carmelo Anthony will eventually be traded to either the Knicks or the Nets.

Statistically speaking, neither team's fan base should get too excited.

Mr. Anthony is on pace to finish this season worth the equivalent of 6.8 wins, using the metric "Wins Produced" that predicts how statistics correlate to winning. Developed by Southern Utah University economics professor David Berri, Wins Produced devalues scoring totals in favor of other stats, particularly shooting efficiency.

Essentially, Mr. Anthony scores like an elite player, but he requires more shots to put up his numbers than a true superstar. This season, Mr. Anthony holds an effective field goal percentage—a weighted statistic that takes 3-pointers into account—of 45.1%. By comparison, LeBron James's effective field goal percentage is 52%. A franchise player, Mr. Berri says, will produce between 25-30 wins a season. Chris Paul is on pace to have 25.8 Wins Produced this season. Last year, Mr. James had 27.2, and Dwight Howard had 22.3.

Mr. Berri concluded that New Jersey would win about 30 games over a full season if the latest reported 13-player, three-team deal goes through, which involves sending Derrick Favors and Devin Harris to Denver. The Nets would also acquire Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton.

Trading for Mr. Anthony could be even more devastating for the Knicks. Their proposed deal would force them to move two of their most productive players: Landry Fields (on pace for 17.6 Wins Produced) and Wilson Chandler (10.3). If the Knicks replaced Messrs. Fields and Chandler with Mr. Anthony, Mr. Berri predicts they would win roughly 29 games over a full year.
—Jared Diamond

In a Different Class

How Carmelo Anthony compares to other NBA superstars using the stat Wins Produced, which correlates a player's statistics to winning.

Wins Produced: 2008-09	2009-10	2010-11 (on pace)
LeBron James	27.8	27.2	21.6
Chris Paul	28.2	11.5	25.8
Dwight Howard	22.2	22.3	17.9
Dwyane Wade	22.2	17.8	19.6
Kevin Durant	10.5	19.7	11.6
Carmelo Anthony 5.9	6	6.8

he belongs on a team like the bucks. guy's who have trouble scoring on their own but all of a sudden things open up for them. it's the same effect amar'e has had on the knicks. he draws a lot of attention because he gets to the rim a lot.

melo would make us a little better. essentially he fulfills the same role as amar'e and having them on the court together would not have too much synergy as they are not great passers. on the nets he would be a whole lot better and make them very viable playoff contenders. they're best creator is devin harris and he is just not that good. if they keep morrow, brook lopez and humphries and you would have a very balanced team. things get even better if they manage to get billups.

in the end i think we can do without melo. let's get us a center.

Bonn1997 wrote:You do have to take into account that he's having a down season--he reminds me of Vince in the year he forced a trade. That said, Melo's adjusted field goal percentage has always been mediocre. I don't know what his wins produced numbers in previous years looked like but I'd be interested in them.

You can look here at the actual games won for each team and the games won that you'd expect based on the individuals' win produced scores using the formula. You can see it's not a BS formula but rather has good validity.
http://www.wagesofwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html

Looks like he had a very similar number last year too actually.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-berri/the-most-overrated-scorer_b_701408.html

It is also weighted by position, so that each position has an inherent break even point in terms of rebounds, points, steals, to's, etc where if you are below those thresholds then you are a detriment to your team. The breakeven point is determined by the other players in those positions that year.

That's how they come up with this statistic. This is not the only statistic that shows Carmelo to be not that great a player, but its the statistic that makes it clearest the wins he provides to a team.

Scroll 3/4 of the way down to the very last chart. It's a picture and not actual text because I don't think he wants people to cut and paste it (which I think is very lame).

i generally am a fan of advanced stats, but i still think that melo is worth more than these measures are valuing him, but they are worth taking into consideration.

Bonn1997 wrote:

TMS wrote:

knickstorrents wrote:Wins Produced is based on statistical analysis and regression based on stats that lead to wins. So what they do is analyze teams that win (e.g., Lakers, Jordan's Bulls, Celtics, etc) then analyze the players on those teams, and what stats those players had. They also look at losing teams and determine what types of players are on those teams, and the stats those players have.

It is also weighted by position, so that each position has an inherent break even point in terms of rebounds, points, steals, to's, etc where if you are below those thresholds then you are a detriment to your team. The breakeven point is determined by the other players in those positions that year.

That's how they come up with this statistic. This is not the only statistic that shows Carmelo to be not that great a player, but its the statistic that makes it clearest the wins he provides to a team.

so let me get this straight... Carmelo doesn't help teams win many games, but somehow he was just fortunate enough to catch on with a 17 win franchise on the severe upswing to 43 wins that same year & to a high of 54 wins & playoffs for 7 consecutive seasons & just sorta rode the coattails of his superstar teammates? wow. if y'all just don't like Melo, that's your choice but enough w/the ridiculous crap like this to try & justify it to the rest of us.

btw, if you could provide the full list of NBA players of this statistic, i would love to see it, just for entertainment purposes.

Unless Carmelo was the only addition and there were no subtractions to that team, we'd need a list of the two rosters to reach any judgment on why the team made that jump.

they also got nene and camby back from injury the same year. it wasn't just melo showing up on their team - it was a lot of factors, melo was a big part, but not the only part.