No this is not an I hate Melo thread.
His shots per game vs points per game is similar to Lebron and Kobe.
Worst guy on the list Monta Ellis who shot as much/more than Melo but scored less.

It is interesting to note who sticks out on this list as needing less shots to score. Wondering what it is? Maybe the system they play in? The teammates around them?

One theory I have is as the go to guy on a team, you're more likely to have the ball passed to you with time ticking down on the clock and expected to take the shot.

Here are some of the best to ever lace em up

MJ:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordami01.html

Magic:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnsma02.html

Bird:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/birdla01.html

Interesting to note that '84-'85 Bird was similar to Melo last season in terms of FGA vs PPG.
Point guards in general seem to have pretty good ratios.

Top scorers from last season:

Kevin Durant 20.3 FGA/30.2 PPG = 1.49 points per attempt
Lebron 20.1/29.7 = 1.48 PPA

Melo = 21.8/28.2 = 1.29

Again this is close to Larry Bird's 6th season. In his 8th season Bird improved slightly by scoring 28.1 per but only taking 20.2 shots for 1.39 PPA.

Melo's best season to date was '05-'06 when he scored 26.5 PG with 19.7 attempts, good for 1.35 PPA. Similar to Wade last season and no one was publishing articles about how inefficient Wade was.

He actually had a pretty sick stretch from 2005-2008 where he scored 26.5, 28.9 and 25.7 per while shooting 48%, 48% and 50% from the field.

Kobe 21.5/27.0 = 1.26
Wade 19.6/26.6 = 1.36
Monta Ellis 22.0/25.5 = 1.15 YUCK
Dirk 18.5/25 = 1.35
Danny Granger 18.4/24.4 = 1.32
Chris Bosh 16.5/24/0 = 1.45
Amare 15.4/23.1= 1.50 Booya
Joe Johnson 18.2/23.1 = 1.27
Derrick Rose 17.6/20.8 = 1.18
Zach Randolph 16.5/20.8 = 1.26
Stephen Jackson 17.5/20.6= 1.18
David Lee 15.5/20.3 = 1.30
Tyreke Evans 16.2/20.1 = 1.24

That's everyone over 20 per

Full list here: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/stats/bycategory?cat=Fielding&sort=25

Other players of note:

Chauncey Billups = 1.48 effect of playing WITH Melo and getting wide open looks?
Paul Pierce = 1.5

As you see above, he's an inefficient scorer (though you might make the argument he's not much worse than other players). The problem is that he's an inefficient scorer AND he's not a particularly good passer AND he turns the ball over AND he doesn't block particularly well AND he commits fouls at a relatively high rate. This adds up to a player that is decent at scoring the ball, but net-net isn't a great positive for a team in terms of possessions.

You can think of possessions as the basketball equivalent of on base percentage, which was what the book Moneyball was all about. Basically, OBP was an underutilized stat before the Oakland A's used it to good effect to recruit players on reasonable contracts, and guess what, they were in a small market and played winning baseball even though their team salary was a fraction of other teams. This is because OBP was under appreciated and under utilized as a screen for players. This is no longer the case.

Possessions are the key to winning basketball, so things like steals, offensive rebounds, blocks, turnovers, missed free throws, deflections, etc all tie into wins and are frequently overlooked. Teams like Houston, Portland, and Dallas do use advanced statistics and you can see it in their teams. But most of the NBA still hasn't caught on (see Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, the interest in Carmelo, etc as examples). To me, using advanced statistics is one of the few ways a cap strapped team with little to no draft picks can improve (you just need to hire the right people and listen to their advice). The Knicks draft situation is borked for the forseeable future, and we don't really have many desirable trade chips. With advanced statistics we can give ourselves a chance to find and amass undervalued talent even with our limited picks and limited talent.

knickstorrents wrote:It's a start into why Melo is inefficient. The whole premise around advanced statistics in basketball is that possessions are the key. The players that net you more possessions, and are most efficient in using possessions, will net you the most wins.

As you see above, he's an inefficient scorer (though you might make the argument he's not much worse than other players). The problem is that he's an inefficient scorer AND he's not a particularly good passer AND he turns the ball over AND he doesn't block particularly well AND he commits fouls at a relatively high rate. This adds up to a player that is decent at scoring the ball, but net-net isn't a great positive for a team in terms of possessions.

You can think of possessions as the basketball equivalent of on base percentage, which was what the book Moneyball was all about. Basically, OBP was an underutilized stat before the Oakland A's used it to good effect to recruit players on reasonable contracts, and guess what, they were in a small market and played winning baseball even though their team salary was a fraction of other teams. This is because OBP was under appreciated and under utilized as a screen for players. This is no longer the case.

Possessions are the key to winning basketball, so things like steals, offensive rebounds, blocks, turnovers, missed free throws, deflections, etc all tie into wins and are frequently overlooked. Teams like Houston, Portland, and Dallas do use advanced statistics and you can see it in their teams. But most of the NBA still hasn't caught on (see Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, the interest in Carmelo, etc as examples). To me, using advanced statistics is one of the few ways a cap strapped team with little to no draft picks can improve (you just need to hire the right people and listen to their advice). The Knicks draft situation is borked for the forseeable future, and we don't really have many desirable trade chips. With advanced statistics we can give ourselves a chance to find and amass undervalued talent even with our limited picks and limited talent.

make sense. the problem I find is when you try to present these new statistics that are really just new ways of looking at the ones we're used to (pts, reb, assists, TOs, etc) people can always just come back and say

i don't need no stat geek. i can count. i got 2 eyes and my 2 eyes tell me.. yadda yadda yadda

my hope is that Melo isn't anywhere near his ceiling yet. If we get him. If the Nets get him I hope he's already peaked

However Melo is super talented and basketball is not mathetmatical for one reason. What happens at the end of games is different from what happens during the first 40 minutes.

Now thats a great list up there, and thats good work putting it together. Thanks for that. This is the kind of stuff that makes this forum great imo.

Now take another look at that list and tell me how many of those guys are going to get you crunch time points better than Melo.

1) he's going to get his shot off
2) he's going to draw contact
3) he's going to hit FTs

He's a lot like Iverson that way. You can focus on shooting %s, TOs, lots of things like that and they are ALL valid factors when looking at a player. But there are only a handful of true finishers in this league and Melo is one of them. Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Pierce, you know the cast. Guys who win you games in the last 2 minutes.

GodSaveTheKnicks wrote:

fishmike wrote:Now its no secret I have been in favor of not trading guys for Carmello, but my reasoning has been that we will have cap space to sign him, and ADD him to a deep roster is much prefered to over using that deep roster to add HIM.

However Melo is super talented and basketball is not mathetmatical for one reason. What happens at the end of games is different from what happens during the first 40 minutes.

Now thats a great list up there, and thats good work putting it together. Thanks for that. This is the kind of stuff that makes this forum great imo.

Now take another look at that list and tell me how many of those guys are going to get you crunch time points better than Melo.

1) he's going to get his shot off
2) he's going to draw contact
3) he's going to hit FTs

He's a lot like Iverson that way. You can focus on shooting %s, TOs, lots of things like that and they are ALL valid factors when looking at a player. But there are only a handful of true finishers in this league and Melo is one of them. Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Pierce, you know the cast. Guys who win you games in the last 2 minutes.

yeah that's what i've come to realize.

even if the statheads have a valid point, he can still take this team to great places I think and there is TONS of room for Melo to cut down on TOs, be more consistent defensively, etc.

It would be frikkin awesome if we could sign him outright though and let the Yoots play to see who can be that 3rd banana.

To me THATS the how to make the Knicks and elite team scenario.

For what it's worth Melo beats out Kobe and the richest man in the NBA Joe Johnson.

1  Dwight Howard 0.627
2  Paul Pierce 0.615
3  Amar'e Stoudemire 0.615
4  Corey Maggette 0.612
5  Kevin Durant 0.609
6  LeBron James 0.604
7  Carl Landry 0.603
8  Chauncey Billups 0.602
9  Carlos Boozer 0.600
10  Chris Bosh 0.594
11  David Lee 0.587
12  Gerald Wallace 0.585
13  Dirk Nowitzki 0.577
14  Deron Williams 0.573
15  Jamal Crawford 0.571
16  Brook Lopez 0.569
17  Stephen Curry 0.568
18  Danny Granger 0.564
19  Dwyane Wade 0.563
20  David West 0.561
21  Tim Duncan 0.559
22  O.J. Mayo 0.554
23  Andrea Bargnani 0.552
24  Jason Terry 0.552
25  Aaron Brooks 0.551
26  Carmelo Anthony 0.548
27  Zach Randolph 0.547
28  Kobe Bryant 0.545
29  Al Harrington 0.545
30  Joe Johnson 0.540
31  Rudy Gay 0.536
32  LaMarcus Aldridge 0.535
33  Andre Iguodala 0.535
34  Derrick Rose 0.534
35  Luol Deng 0.531
36  Tyreke Evans 0.527
37  Chris Kaman 0.527
38  Al Jefferson 0.523
39  Stephen Jackson 0.518
40  Monta Ellis 0.517
41  Rodney Stuckey 0.478

If your efficiency is not above average, then scoring a lot of points is not adding a lot of value to the team.

Also, you should probably look at both current and long term trends because a guy like Kobe for example was hurt all year last year and had a down year relative to his norm.

GodSaveTheKnicks wrote:My friend put this together for me.
Top scorers in the league, ranked by true shooting %age, which takes into account 3s and FTs

For what it's worth Melo beats out Kobe and the richest man in the NBA Joe Johnson.

1  Dwight Howard 0.627
2  Paul Pierce 0.615
3  Amar'e Stoudemire 0.615
4  Corey Maggette 0.612
5  Kevin Durant 0.609
6  LeBron James 0.604
7  Carl Landry 0.603
8  Chauncey Billups 0.602
9  Carlos Boozer 0.600
10  Chris Bosh 0.594
11  David Lee 0.587
12  Gerald Wallace 0.585
13  Dirk Nowitzki 0.577
14  Deron Williams 0.573
15  Jamal Crawford 0.571
16  Brook Lopez 0.569
17  Stephen Curry 0.568
18  Danny Granger 0.564
19  Dwyane Wade 0.563
20  David West 0.561
21  Tim Duncan 0.559
22  O.J. Mayo 0.554
23  Andrea Bargnani 0.552
24  Jason Terry 0.552
25  Aaron Brooks 0.551
26  Carmelo Anthony 0.548
27  Zach Randolph 0.547
28  Kobe Bryant 0.545
29  Al Harrington 0.545
30  Joe Johnson 0.540
31  Rudy Gay 0.536
32  LaMarcus Aldridge 0.535
33  Andre Iguodala 0.535
34  Derrick Rose 0.534
35  Luol Deng 0.531
36  Tyreke Evans 0.527
37  Chris Kaman 0.527
38  Al Jefferson 0.523
39  Stephen Jackson 0.518
40  Monta Ellis 0.517
41  Rodney Stuckey 0.478

no offense (& i appreciate the effort you took in comprising these lists), but things like this are not really worth much when it comes to judging a players' value... for instance, do you honestly think any GM in his right mind would value guys like Maggette, Landry, David Lee, G Wallace, Crawford, Jason Terry, etc. over Melo or Kobe based on a list like this?

you say you have a problem with guys who disagree w/the statgeeks but offer no #'s to back it up, yet you're in essence doing the same thing with comments like this:

Iverson wasn't exactly Mr. Efficiency but he still took his team to a Finals and took a game from the Lakers.

how is that any different from the counter arguments i presented to you about Melo & how he played Kobe tough in the WCF? because i wasn't willing to lend any credence to a buncha statistics & faulty lists like the one you just presented means i have no basis for an argument? i have some info for you... people that don't agree with statgeeks aren't likely going to put together a bunch of convoluted stats to back up their argument... using basic rudimentary stats like scoring, rebounding & assists averages to rank a players' production is all fine & dandy, but to me watching these guys play is enough to formulate an educated opinion on how good a player is... watching someone play gives you a MUCH more informed way of judging a player's skills than just looking up a bunch of stats on the internet put together by a buncha guys with pens & calculators in their shirt pockets... #'s are not the be all & end all of judging a player's talent or value... stats are something you use to AID you in formulating an opinion, but to me there's really no substitute for watching these guys play firsthand to formulate your opinion on them.

If I was Camelo Anthony for the NY Knicks, my priorities might be different. I am not here to maintain my scoring average. I am here specifically to win a championship. Because teams can't double both Amare and me, my shooting percentage is likely to go up. Also, my passing is likely to improve, because now there is another guy who shoots it even better than me. Also because I am less likely to hung up with maintaining my scoring average, my defense is likely to improve since now it makes sense for me to play better defense.

My suggestion is that Carmelo Anthony's past numbers in Denver, are not necessarily his numbers when he is emotionally committed to playing winning basketball in NY. Do you buy that?