I hear a lot how superior Bosh is than Lee. Bosh is better. I'm not going to argue that, but he's not like Jordan vs. Starks better. What I hear over and over again is that Bosh is 100x better than Lee defensively, its a fair point and an important point as we discuss which guy makes more sense to commit to over the next 5-6 years.
First some points on the data:
both players are in the same division
both players played almost all their minutes at center: Bosh 60% at C, 3% at PF while Lee played 72% at center and 3% at PF
Here's the breakdown:
How they score
Shot selection (BOSH) Shot selection (LEE)
Shot Att. eFG% Ast'd Blk'd Pts Shot Att. eFG% Ast'd Blk'd Pts
Jump 54% .444 52% 4% 8.0 Jump 49% .430 74% 4% 6.5
Close 32% .553 45% 11% 5.9 Close 42% .624 56% 14% 8.1
Dunk 9% .873 71% 3% 2.5 Dunk 6% .971 85% 3% 1.7
Tips 5% .527 0% 0% 0.8 Tips 4% .543 0% 2% 0.6
Inside 46% .612 48% 9% 9.3 Inside 51% .656 58% 12% 10.4
Bosh takes more jumpers but at a slightly higher rate than Lee.
Lee does more of his scoring 'close' or around the basket as you would want your center to do, and does so at a substantially higher rate than Bosh
Bosh gets more of his own offense as 10% more of Lee's shots are assisted.
Winner: PUSH When they score:
Shot clock usage (BOSH) Shot clock usage (LEE)
Secs. Att. eFG% Ast'd Blk'd Pts Secs. Att. eFG% Ast'd Blk'd Pts
0-10 31% .568 47% 5% 5.9 0-10 37% .602 51% 10% 6.9
15-Nov 31% .554 56% 6% 5.7 15-Nov 30% .514 71% 8% 4.9
16-20 25% .460 50% 8% 3.7 16-20 24% .542 75% 7% 4.0
21+ 13% .448 42% 8% 2.0 21+ 9% .429 73% 6% 1.2
Crunch 38% .456 48% 8% 5.7 Crunch 33% .511 74% 7% 5.2
Lee has higher FG%s almost across the board. Lee's is also more efficient in knocking down that shot as the clock expire
More of Lee's shots are coming off assists and in the flow of the offense.
Winner: PUSH Free Throw Shooting and Foul Drawing (BOSH)
FTM FTA FT% FTA48 PTS48 FGA Fouled DrawF
470 590 79.7 11.2 8.9 1440 281 19.50%
Free Throw Shooting and Foul Drawing (LEE)
FTM FTA FT% FTA48 PTS48 FGA Fouled DrawF
268 330 81.2 5.2 4.3 1434 176 12.30%
No contest here… Bosh gets to the line more.
Winner: BoshPassing Stats (BOSH)
3-Pt Jump Close Dunk Total Passing Assist/ Passing AST48
Assists Assists Assists Assists Assists T/O's Bad Pass Rating
56 42 51 17 166 46 3.6 3.3 3.2
Passing Stats (LEE)
3-Pt Jump Close Dunk Total Passing Assist/ Passing AST48
Assists Assists Assists Assists Assists T/O's Bad Pass Rating
148 61 60 26 295 87 3.4 4.1 4.7
No contest here either. Lee's passes create more of every kind of score. 3's, dunks, jumpers and close shots.
Winner: LeeRebounding (BOSH)
Off Off.Reb Off.Reb TeamOff Def Def.Reb Def.Reb TeamDef Player TeamFT
Rebs Chances Pct Reb% Rebs Chances Pct Reb% Rating Rating
206 2281 9.00% 27.10% 553 2471 22.40% 71.10% 31.4 98.2
Rebounding (LEE)
Off Off.Reb Off.Reb TeamOff Def Def.Reb Def.Reb TeamDef Player TeamFT
Rebs Chances Pct Reb% Rebs Chances Pct Reb% Rating Rating
228 2931 7.80% 25.00% 720 2855 25.20% 70.60% 33 95.7
These are good numbers. Neither player is next to a guy who rebounds well so both Bosh and Lee dominate the glass on their team.
Bosh gets a slight edge on the offensive boards, Lee has a bigger edge on the defensive glass.
Both are excellent rebounders.
Winner: PUSHShot Blocking (BOSH)
Jump Close Dunk Jump Close Dunk All BLK48 Block Shoot Blocks/ Block
Blocks Blocks Blocks Pct Pct Pct Blocks Pct Fouls Foul Rating
12 54 2 0% 4% 1% 68 1.3 1.60% 89 0.76 4.3Shot Blocking (LEE)
Jump Close Dunk Jump Close Dunk All BLK48 Block Shoot Blocks/ Block
Blocks Blocks Blocks Pct Pct Pct Blocks Pct Fouls Foul Rating
7 32 0 0% 2% 0% 39 0.6 0.80% 132 0.3 2
You would expect the long athletic Bosh to have an impact here. He doesn’t. Bosh is not an impact player blocking shots. However Lee is even worse, and Lee's higher foul total takes this from a push to a winner for Bosh
Winner: Bosh
Player 48-Minute Production by Position
player FGA eFG% FTA iFG Reb Ast T/O Blk PF Pts PER*
BOSH 22.3 .521 11.2 45% 14.5 3.1 3.2 1.4 3.3 32.2 28.4
LEE 19.9 .546 5.3 51% 15.3 4.7 3.0 .6 4.0 26.0 25.1
Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production
player FGA eFG% FTA iFG Reb Ast T/O Blk PF Pts PER*
BOSH 15.4 .537 5.7 62% 13.1 2.3 2.6 1.8 6.7 20.3 18.6
LEE 15.6 .560 4.8 59% 14.5 2.3 2.9 2.2 4.5 21.0 22.2
Here is what we see:
Lee is a more efficient scorer (beating Bosh by 2.5%)
Bosh holds his opponents to a lower FG% (beating Lee by 1.4%)
Lee holds the edge in assists, Bosh in blocks.
BOTH players are allowing their opponents to score at a high % then they are scoring and by exactly the same amount
Because Bosh is the primary scorer on his team and gets less scores on assisted plays he is the winner
Overall:
Bosh's numbers are impressive but not impressive enough. Lee is an equally effiecient player, and more suited to be a #2 guy next to Lebron than Bosh is. Lee is a better player in the flow of the offense both scoring the basketball and passing the basketball.
Bosh's scoring has a bigger impact than Lee's because of his ability to draw fouls and create his own shot.
Both players are less effecient than their opponents, and by exactly the same %. As good as Bosh is, he's proven to be exactly the same liability on defense that Lee critics have labeled him.
Winner: Bosh
Project cost:
Bosh 5 years $100mm, salary year by year: 17.0, 18.4, 19.8, 21.4, 23.1
Lee 6 years $74mm salary year by year: 9.5, 10.5, 11.6, 12.8, 14.2, 15.7
Winner: Lee
Impact on cap:
If you sign a max FA wing like Lebron or Wade and give Bosh the max to be the #2 you have nothing left. Not even enough to give Earl Barron a deal. Your looking at filling the roster with 2nd rounder and veteran min players.
If you sign Lee you have almost $8mm left which you can spread around to add depth, or use on one impact guy. Tyrus Thomas is one option. You can beat other teams with only the MLE to offer so you could outbid for guys like Artest and Ariza last year. You can make trade and take salary back with that cap space. You have more flexibility with cap holds if you buy first rounders.
Winner: Lee
Well... here it is. You guys tell me who makes more sense for the 2nd max guy... Bosh or Lee?
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
5/18/2010 1:29 PM