Larry Coon and NBA teams are projecting the cap number to be 53mm next years. With our salary structure and capholds for the remaining slots[all minimum] our salary cap number is 21.7mm which would give us basically 31.3mm to spend. The max salaries would for 2 players would be 33,137,816. As of today we would be short nearly 2mm $ to sign to max FA. We can try to buyout EC[but then there would be an additional minimum cap hold] so the buyout would have to be in the 2.5mm $ range. Is Eddy Curry going to take 2.5mm less? I don't know about that. So just getting to the two max contracts is not in our hands right now--it's in Eddy Currys hands.

As an FYI, this is what basketball related income is composed of.

Regular season gate receipts
Broadcast rights
Exhibition game proceeds
Playoff gate receipts
Novelty, program and concession sales (at the arena and in team-identified stores within proximity of an NBA arena)
Parking
Proceeds from team sponsorships
Proceeds from team promotions
Arena club revenues
Proceeds from summer camps
Proceeds from non-NBA basketball tournaments
Proceeds from mascot and dance team appearances
Proceeds from beverage sale rights
40% of proceeds from arena signage
40% of proceeds from luxury suites
45% - 50% of proceeds from arena naming rights
Proceeds from other premium seat licenses
Proceeds received by NBA Properties, including international television, sponsorships, revenues from NBA Entertainment, the All-Star Game, the McDonald's Championship and other NBA special events.

BRIGGS wrote:

VDesai wrote:The cap is 51% of basketball related income from the past year. This year the cap was $57.7 million, meaning basketball related income was $113.1 mil. For the cap to reduce to $53 million, basketball related income would have to fall to $103.9 mil- that's about 8.2% drop. The economy was down in 2008-2009 but I'm not 100% sure that BRI is falling that much. While it consumer related, this income tends to grow every year because of NBA expansion. As an example, the basketball related income dropped 1.7% last year. Even if we assume a 5% drop, which is more than double what happened last year, the Cap is still about 56.5 mil.

As an FYI, this is what basketball related income is composed of.

Regular season gate receipts
Broadcast rights
Exhibition game proceeds
Playoff gate receipts
Novelty, program and concession sales (at the arena and in team-identified stores within proximity of an NBA arena)
Parking
Proceeds from team sponsorships
Proceeds from team promotions
Arena club revenues
Proceeds from summer camps
Proceeds from non-NBA basketball tournaments
Proceeds from mascot and dance team appearances
Proceeds from beverage sale rights
40% of proceeds from arena signage
40% of proceeds from luxury suites
45% - 50% of proceeds from arena naming rights
Proceeds from other premium seat licenses
Proceeds received by NBA Properties, including international television, sponsorships, revenues from NBA Entertainment, the All-Star Game, the McDonald's Championship and other NBA special events.

I'm going to go with Larry Coon on this one.

VDesai... excellent post (the guy works for a bank crunching #s).

So while some use a pretend cap # for next year you actually put thought and insight into what defines that #. Thank you for that.

Should we ignore Stern's statement earlier this season about how the NBA revenues were exceeding expectations so far for the year?

The $53mm was a worst case scenario. Pretty clear thats not the case

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/16/behind-the-numbers-the-knicks-mcgrady-and-the-cap/#more-1769

fishmike wrote:also the original article isnt from Coon. Its from Joe Schmoe.

"but there is much less breathing room if the cap falls below 53 million. "

That is a direct quote. Nowhere does it say that is his prediction, nor is there any evidence that the cap will drop at all, much less to $53mm

and from Des's post, the BRI would have to severely drop for it to even be 53 million. I think it's a safe bet that the cap is going to be right where we thought it would be... somewhere in the 55-57 range.

fishmike wrote:http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=mc-sternallstar021210&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Q: With ticket sales and sponsorship revenue down because of the recession, are there some owners who could actually benefit from a lockout? How does the current situation differ from [the last lockout] in 1999?

Stern: A work stoppage doesn’t benefit anybody. I think what has happened is – I don’t remember precisely the numbers – we have 10 years of numbers to sort of confirm to us that we need to have a system that can be better sustained for the business of our league, that can continue to reward our players for their extraordinary talent but can also be a model for causing our owners to make the kinds of investments that are necessary to grow our sport.

Q: Is there any danger of the NBA contracting some teams?

Stern: We don’t have any plans for contraction. I would say we’re not going to be challenged from a revenue standpoint. But we are challenged from an expense perspective. Our expenses are too high and we have to find a way to moderate them.

Briggs... that "warning" was old, and was not backed by Stern. If you look at VDesai's post the cap is based on revenue.

The cap is going to be about the same or slightly less than last years. That $53mm estimate is a worst case. The #s arent there to suggest such a drop, they just arent.

Why ignore the evidence?

Fishmike--did you ready Larry Coons article from last week? So fishmike is right and Larry Coon is wrong?

Player 2010 Salary
Eddy Curry 11,276,863.00
Danilo Gallinari 3,304,560.00
Wilson Chandler 2,130,481.00
Toney Douglas 1,071,000.00
Second Rd Draft Pick 473,604.00
Second Rd Draft Pick 473,604.00
Cap Hold 473,604.00
Cap Hold 473,604.00
Cap Hold 473,604.00
Cap Hold 473,604.00
Lebron James 15,900,000.00
Chris Bosh 15,900,000.00



Total 52,424,528.00
Salary Cap 53,000,000.00
Cap Space Available 575,472.00


PG
SG Wilson Chandler
SF Lebron James
PF Danilo Gallinari
C Chris Bosh
PG/SG Toney Douglas
SF/PF
PF/C
Bench
Bench
Bench
Bench
IR
IR
IR

The predicted cap drop was based on revenue dropping as much as 8%. Its dropped 1%. Thats the data.

Coon is working off worst case scenario that was put out there last summer. That hasnt happened.

Coon didnt even say it was HIS prediction.

You believe everything from the internet as gospel? If Kramer tells you that a company is strong (like Bear) you take that as Gospel? Dont be scared to do a little research.

fishmike wrote:It has nothing to do with right or wrong. Its a prediction based on data. The data has changed.

The predicted cap drop was based on revenue dropping as much as 8%. Its dropped 1%. Thats the data.

Coon is working off worst case scenario that was put out there last summer. That hasnt happened.

Coon didnt even say it was HIS prediction.

You believe everything from the internet as gospel? If Kramer tells you that a company is strong (like Bear) you take that as Gospel? Dont be scared to do a little research.

A 1% drop in BRI would mean the cap would come in at about 57.1 mil.

fishmike wrote:

VDesai wrote:

fishmike wrote:It has nothing to do with right or wrong. Its a prediction based on data. The data has changed.

The predicted cap drop was based on revenue dropping as much as 8%. Its dropped 1%. Thats the data.

Coon is working off worst case scenario that was put out there last summer. That hasnt happened.

Coon didnt even say it was HIS prediction.

You believe everything from the internet as gospel? If Kramer tells you that a company is strong (like Bear) you take that as Gospel? Dont be scared to do a little research.

A 1% drop in BRI would mean the cap would come in at about 57.1 mil.

which could be the difference in picking up Sergio's QO

I think Sergio's cap hold is greater than the QO.

TheGame wrote:Basically, we need to cap to come in around $56 mil and hope that either Lebron or Bosh is willing to forego $1 or $2 mil. If we can work out a S&T with Lee going to Toronto and us signing Bosh for say $14.5 starting, we should clear about $4-$5 mil to resign Sergio and house and if McGrady is willing to do a vet mininum for 1 year, we would be set.

Its hard to imagine LBJ, Bosh, Chandler, Gallo and a bunch of guys making $500k. But who knows how Walsh and MDA sell this.