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Revisiting Jennings v. Hill
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Paladin55
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1/23/2010  5:31 PM    LAST EDITED: 1/23/2010  5:49 PM
As is usually the case in UK land, the fan favorites are lauded when they have a good game or a good run of games, but rarely, if ever, do we hear about them when they are not playing well.

Some stats for folks to chew on:

_______Jan______Season

FG%:___.296_____.381

3pt%___.316_____.387

TO_____2.5______2.73

APG____6.1______6.1

PPG____13.5_____17.9

Foul shots taken/game:
3.45 in January
3.8/season

Perhaps he has hit a wall, but his game has gone down steadily over the season, and if you were to take out some of his early monster games, his stat line would be downright terrible. And this is not just January. Look at his offensive stats after his first 10 games and you will be quite surprised.

The most positive thing for him is that his turnover rate has not gotten out of hand, and his assists have stayed steady, but the other stats make you question whether he has hit a wall, or if teams have simply learned how to deal with his game.

I also wonder why he is not going to the hoop and drawing more fouls, given his quickness.

I had come to terms with the idea that Walsh made a mistake in taking Hill, who I never thought about taking in the draft, over Jennings, but I think you can potentially make a case, especially with some of the glimpses we have had of Hill recently, that drafting Hill MAY, at some point, be seen as the smarter move.

Still too early to make any real conclusion on Jennings or Hill, and I sure as hell wish we had gotten Curry, but down the line we MAY end up calling Walsh a genius for taking Hill and bypassing Jennings.

This is especially true if we somehow land Lebron, who would be doing much of the ball distributing himself if we had him. If you use the Jordan Bulls as a model, you may not want a guy like Jennings, who needs the ball to be effective,(or so it would seem)as your compliment to Lebron, but rather a guy like- dare I say- Douglas, who can shoot, play D, and do some of the ball handling chores for the team. The Jordan/Kobe/Lebron/Wade model does not seem to call for a dominant PG, but rather a complimentary player.

Nobody can predict the future careers of Hill and Jennings, but things don't seem as cut and dry as they did earlier in the season, when Jennings had his 55 and was given god-like status by some.

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FireIsiah
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1/23/2010  5:40 PM
We still dont have a point guard and that is a problem. Jennings hit a wall but after watching Duhon all year he would have been a piece to the puzzle.

I like Hill alot but we need a PG badly.

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Paladin55
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1/23/2010  5:45 PM    LAST EDITED: 1/23/2010  5:45 PM
FireIsiah wrote:We still dont have a point guard and that is a problem. Jennings hit a wall but after watching Duhon all year he would have been a piece to the puzzle.

I like Hill a lot but we need a PG badly.

Hard for me to disagree about needing a PG, but...

the type of PG we will ultimately need will be determined after next year's FA frenzy, though.

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TMS
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1/23/2010  6:12 PM
Jennings didn't have the right mindset to co-exist w/MDA... he would be another score first mentality PG & MDA is looking for someone to get everyone involved in the flow of the offense... Jennings is a tremendous talent & would have made a great pick but Jordan Hill fills a huge need in the frontcourt as we've seen when he gets the minutes... i had absolutely no problem w/us taking Jordan Hill & still don't, i think he's gonna make a lot of people eat crow soon enough & everyone who booed him on draft night will owe him an apology... already seeing some eyes being opened around here on the kid.
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AnubisADL
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1/23/2010  6:16 PM
Box score analyzing?

What is the point if you aren't actually watching games. Teams arent giving him wide open shots. Just like teams have adjusted to Gallo and get up in his chest. When Jennings shoots he has a hand in his face. Plus he is driving more and is being forced to shoot off the dribble. For those who watch games you would have noticed he was killing teams from the top of the key. Teams have taken away his spots and his FG% has plummeted. He has also added the floater to his game but seems to brick 4-5 of those a game. I think he should add moves during the summer not mid-season but whatever.

Jennings biggest concern is his piss poor D against big guards and his inability to get over screens.

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tkf
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1/23/2010  6:16 PM    LAST EDITED: 1/23/2010  6:17 PM
TMS wrote:Jennings didn't have the right mindset to co-exist w/MDA... he would be another score first mentality PG & MDA is looking for someone to get everyone involved in the flow of the offense... Jennings is a tremendous talent & would have made a great pick but Jordan Hill fills a huge need in the frontcourt as we've seen when he gets the minutes... i had absolutely no problem w/us taking Jordan Hill & still don't, i think he's gonna make a lot of people eat crow soon enough & everyone who booed him on draft night will owe him an apology... already seeing some eyes being opened around here on the kid.


I argued with some posters on this site regarding this pick.. and my main defense was to just wait and see before we deem hill a bust and the draft a mistake... but no, instead, some people wanted to jump the gun. maybe out of anger, or just impatience... But what could it have hurt to just sit back and let Hill play before we labeled him as a bust... Now Hill wasn't the pick I wanted, but I was willing to give him time, because I knew he would be a good player down the road.... Sometimes the moves that may look bad at first sometimes work their way out down the road...and the good GM's can sometimes look through all the flash, and glitz... that is why most of us are not making professional basketball decisions..

Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
tkf
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1/23/2010  6:22 PM
AnubisADL wrote:Box score analyzing?

What is the point if you aren't actually watching games. Teams arent giving him wide open shots. Just like teams have adjusted to Gallo and get up in his chest. When Jennings shoots he has a hand in his face. Plus he is driving more and is being forced to shoot off the dribble. For those who watch games you would have noticed he was killing teams from the top of the key. Teams have taken away his spots and his FG% has plummeted. He has also added the floater to his game but seems to brick 4-5 of those a game. I think he should add moves during the summer not mid-season but whatever.

Jennings biggest concern is his piss poor D against big guards and his inability to get over screens.


good point.. but the difference is.. gallo has made adjustments. he is now driving the ball.. giving little juke moves, and he is still hitting over 40% of his shots... jennings is now shooting 38%, that is a HUGE drop from where he was before.. He is not adjusting that well... I wish him the best tho.. that kid seems to be a hard worker, and wants to do the right thing out there...

Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
AnubisADL
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1/23/2010  6:29 PM
TMS wrote:Jennings didn't have the right mindset to co-exist w/MDA... he would be another score first mentality PG & MDA is looking for someone to get everyone involved in the flow of the offense... Jennings is a tremendous talent & would have made a great pick but Jordan Hill fills a huge need in the frontcourt as we've seen when he gets the minutes... i had absolutely no problem w/us taking Jordan Hill & still don't, i think he's gonna make a lot of people eat crow soon enough & everyone who booed him on draft night will owe him an apology... already seeing some eyes being opened around here on the kid.

That is another misconception about Jennings. When he played next to Redd his stats dropped because he took less shots and focused on running the offense more.

You think Scott Skiles would let him throw up 20+ shots a game if he didn't want him too? Jennings is playing the way Scott Skiles instructs him too. Just like at the end of games Scott Skiles puts the ball in Jennings' hands. Jennings creates easy scoring opportunities for his teammates which is why he is playing extensive minutes. A perfect example being Friday against Toronto where he played the entire 3rd quarter. He gets rest in the 4th because they have a back to back and the offense totally collapses. He also didn't take a single shot when he came back in the fourth and instead facilitated the offense.

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Paladin55
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1/23/2010  6:36 PM
AnubisADL wrote:Box score analyzing?

What is the point if you aren't actually watching games. Teams arent giving him wide open shots. Just like teams have adjusted to Gallo and get up in his chest. When Jennings shoots he has a hand in his face. Plus he is driving more and is being forced to shoot off the dribble. For those who watch games you would have noticed he was killing teams from the top of the key. Teams have taken away his spots and his FG% has plummeted. He has also added the floater to his game but seems to brick 4-5 of those a game. I think he should add moves during the summer not mid-season but whatever.

Jennings biggest concern is his piss poor D against big guards and his inability to get over screens.

I have watched a few of his games on League Pass- some good- some bad- but have not really taken the time to analyze what has happened to his game as the season has progressed. When I saw him hit his 55 GS did nothing to disrupt his game or even get a hand in his face. I will say that he does not go to the basket as well as I thought he could after watching other games he has played.

The stats may not always tell you WHY things are going as they are, but they can be used to document quality of play, and over an extended period, which is what we are looking at with Jennings' numbers, you can hypothesize that his game has deteriorated because of this reason or that.

My real issue is how people cherry-pick info which supports their position, but tend to overlook info which contradicts them. Guys are ready to throw Hill to the dogs without giving him a chance to show his stuff, just as people were doing with Gallinari last year, and during the pre-season this year, yet nobody has commented on the rather lengthy period of time during which Jennings' offensive production would have been Duhon-like if not for the fact that he hoists up 15-23 shots/game.

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1/23/2010  6:37 PM
tkf wrote:
TMS wrote:Jennings didn't have the right mindset to co-exist w/MDA... he would be another score first mentality PG & MDA is looking for someone to get everyone involved in the flow of the offense... Jennings is a tremendous talent & would have made a great pick but Jordan Hill fills a huge need in the frontcourt as we've seen when he gets the minutes... i had absolutely no problem w/us taking Jordan Hill & still don't, i think he's gonna make a lot of people eat crow soon enough & everyone who booed him on draft night will owe him an apology... already seeing some eyes being opened around here on the kid.


I argued with some posters on this site regarding this pick.. and my main defense was to just wait and see before we deem hill a bust and the draft a mistake... but no, instead, some people wanted to jump the gun. maybe out of anger, or just impatience... But what could it have hurt to just sit back and let Hill play before we labeled him as a bust... Now Hill wasn't the pick I wanted, but I was willing to give him time, because I knew he would be a good player down the road.... Sometimes the moves that may look bad at first sometimes work their way out down the road...and the good GM's can sometimes look through all the flash, and glitz... that is why most of us are not making professional basketball decisions..

i had Derozan #1 on my list, Jordan Hill was #2... didn't figure we'd have a shot at any of the guys that went before them... Jennings was #2 on my list for a while before he started showing signs of immaturity w/his comments, didn't think it would mesh well w/the team that Walsh was trying to build & had concerns about him meshing with MDA's coaching style... i ain't no draft guru but tried to make a point to watch as many college games as i could last season to get an idea of the draft prospects that people were talking about... at this point i really like what i see from Jordan Hill, kid is working hard out there... he just needs a fair chance to show what he can do & i think he'll be a staple of our rotation for years to come.

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1/23/2010  6:44 PM
AnubisADL wrote:
TMS wrote:Jennings didn't have the right mindset to co-exist w/MDA... he would be another score first mentality PG & MDA is looking for someone to get everyone involved in the flow of the offense... Jennings is a tremendous talent & would have made a great pick but Jordan Hill fills a huge need in the frontcourt as we've seen when he gets the minutes... i had absolutely no problem w/us taking Jordan Hill & still don't, i think he's gonna make a lot of people eat crow soon enough & everyone who booed him on draft night will owe him an apology... already seeing some eyes being opened around here on the kid.

That is another misconception about Jennings. When he played next to Redd his stats dropped because he took less shots and focused on running the offense more.

You think Scott Skiles would let him throw up 20+ shots a game if he didn't want him too? Jennings is playing the way Scott Skiles instructs him too. Just like at the end of games Scott Skiles puts the ball in Jennings' hands. Jennings creates easy scoring opportunities for his teammates which is why he is playing extensive minutes. A perfect example being Friday against Toronto where he played the entire 3rd quarter. He gets rest in the 4th because they have a back to back and the offense totally collapses. He also didn't take a single shot when he came back in the fourth and instead facilitated the offense.

i think Skiles is using his player to the best of his ability because that's the type of game he excels at... like i said i had my concerns how that would mesh w/the team oriented ball that MDA wanted to implement here... we all saw the writing on the wall last year how MDA & Nate would eventually come to a head this year & it did... i don't think Jennings & MDA would have seen eye to eye on things personally... MDA would have tried to make Jennings into Nash & that wouldn't have worked... Jennings is more AI than Nash, which isn't a knock on him in the least because everyone knows i respect AI a ton, but that's just the style of game he plays... playing Euro style ball Jennings struggled last year... he needs to be free to do his thing out there & use his quickness, speed & shotmaking ability to his advantage, just like Nate.

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AnubisADL
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1/23/2010  7:02 PM
Paladin55 wrote:I have watched a few of his games on League Pass- some good- some bad- but have not really taken the time to analyze what has happened to his game as the season has progressed. When I saw him hit his 55 GS did nothing to disrupt his game or even get a hand in his face. I will say that he does not go to the basket as well as I thought he could after watching other games he has played.

The stats may not always tell you WHY things are going as they are, but they can be used to document quality of play, and over an extended period, which is what we are looking at with Jennings' numbers, you can hypothesize that his game has deteriorated because of this reason or that.

My real issue is how people cherry-pick info which supports their position, but tend to overlook info which contradicts them. Guys are ready to throw Hill to the dogs without giving him a chance to show his stuff, just as people were doing with Gallinari last year, and during the pre-season this year, yet nobody has commented on the rather lengthy period of time during which Jennings' offensive production would have been Duhon-like if not for the fact that he hoists up 15-23 shots/game.

I watch all the Buck games. He doesn't seem to have the ability to break his man down one on one in half court sets. He tends to use a screen then just blow by the defender. I will have to watch some more because he stopped wearing his knee brace since Wednesday and has exhibited more explosion off the dribble.

Jennings got the looks Duhon usually gets early in the season and produced. He no longer gets those looks. Team know if you defend Bogut and Jennnings the Bucks cannot score. This is where having guys like Chandler, Gallinari, and Lee would have helped Jennings. Take a peek at Carlos Delfino's, Charlie Bell's, Hakeem Warrick, and Ersan Illyasova's stats. Their shooting is all over the place. They get the same shots night in night out too. It has gotten to the point where they have signed Jerry Stackhouse and played 20 minutes the first day they acquired him. Hakeem Warrick actually collected a DNP-CD on Friday. Jennings has pretty much no consistent help outside of Bogut and Ridnour.

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AnubisADL
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1/23/2010  7:26 PM
TMS wrote:i think Skiles is using his player to the best of his ability because that's the type of game he excels at... like i said i had my concerns how that would mesh w/the team oriented ball that MDA wanted to implement here... we all saw the writing on the wall last year how MDA & Nate would eventually come to a head this year & it did... i don't think Jennings & MDA would have seen eye to eye on things personally... MDA would have tried to make Jennings into Nash & that wouldn't have worked... Jennings is more AI than Nash, which isn't a knock on him in the least because everyone knows i respect AI a ton, but that's just the style of game he plays... playing Euro style ball Jennings struggled last year... he needs to be free to do his thing out there & use his quickness, speed & shotmaking ability to his advantage, just like Nate.

I disagree, Skiles has Jennings on a short leash. Early in the season Jennings would get yanked early if he started free lancing. Are you saying Scott Skiles is an easy coach to get along with? Scott Skiles reportedly didn't care for Ramon Sessions who D'Antoni reportedly liked. If Skiles hasn't killed Jennings yet I'd have to say people made the wrong assumptions about Jennings. This is the same guy who bought a Ford Edge as his first vehicle with his NBA money.

I suggest you watch more games because Jennings seems to be trying to emulate Nash's play except his jumper is nowhere near Nash's. People forget Nash is a very ball dominate guard.

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TMS
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1/23/2010  7:35 PM
AnubisADL wrote:
TMS wrote:i think Skiles is using his player to the best of his ability because that's the type of game he excels at... like i said i had my concerns how that would mesh w/the team oriented ball that MDA wanted to implement here... we all saw the writing on the wall last year how MDA & Nate would eventually come to a head this year & it did... i don't think Jennings & MDA would have seen eye to eye on things personally... MDA would have tried to make Jennings into Nash & that wouldn't have worked... Jennings is more AI than Nash, which isn't a knock on him in the least because everyone knows i respect AI a ton, but that's just the style of game he plays... playing Euro style ball Jennings struggled last year... he needs to be free to do his thing out there & use his quickness, speed & shotmaking ability to his advantage, just like Nate.

I disagree, Skiles has Jennings on a short leash. Early in the season Jennings would get yanked early if he started free lancing. Are you saying Scott Skiles is an easy coach to get along with? Scott Skiles reportedly didn't care for Ramon Sessions who D'Antoni reportedly liked. If Skiles hasn't killed Jennings yet I'd have to say people made the wrong assumptions about Jennings. This is the same guy who bought a Ford Edge as his first vehicle with his NBA money.

I suggest you watch more games because Jennings seems to be trying to emulate Nash's play except his jumper is nowhere near Nash's. People forget Nash is a very ball dominate guard.

i think a big part of the reason why MDA liked Sessions is because he was looking for a ball distributor to run his offense, not a ball dominating G with a score first mentality... Nash is a ball dominate guard but he's a distributor first, a scorer second... u'r talking about a guy who's averaged 10 or more assists his past 5 seasons & only averaged 13 or less shot attempts per game over the same time span... a big departure from Brandon Jennings who's taking 17 per game... now u can argue that he needs to be taking that many shots because he doesn't have much help on his team, & in a sense i'd agree w/u, but i also don't think he'll ever be at his best trying to be like Steve Nash... for Jennings to be at his best, he needs to take an AI mentality & use his quickness & scoring ability to his best advantage... i think w/his skillset he should easily be getting to the FT line at least 8-9 times a game.

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1/23/2010  8:42 PM
TMS wrote:i think a big part of the reason why MDA liked Sessions is because he was looking for a ball distributor to run his offense, not a ball dominating G with a score first mentality... Nash is a ball dominate guard but he's a distributor first, a scorer second... u'r talking about a guy who's averaged 10 or more assists his past 5 seasons & only averaged 13 or less shot attempts per game over the same time span... a big departure from Brandon Jennings who's taking 17 per game... now u can argue that he needs to be taking that many shots because he doesn't have much help on his team, & in a sense i'd agree w/u, but i also don't think he'll ever be at his best trying to be like Steve Nash... for Jennings to be at his best, he needs to take an AI mentality & use his quickness & scoring ability to his best advantage... i think w/his skillset he should easily be getting to the FT line at least 8-9 times a game.

Deron Williams and Chris Paul are averaging 14 and 15 FGA's per game while Jennings is averaging 17 FGA's per game. I dont think anyone would call Williams or Paul shoot first guards. When you are the 1st-2nd best player on a team you are going to get shots.

Jennings has little in common with Iverson except for speed. He also isnt as good off the dribble as Iverson either. If Jennings tries to emulate Iverson he will be a massive bust.

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1/23/2010  8:54 PM    LAST EDITED: 1/23/2010  9:00 PM
AnubisADL wrote:
TMS wrote:i think a big part of the reason why MDA liked Sessions is because he was looking for a ball distributor to run his offense, not a ball dominating G with a score first mentality... Nash is a ball dominate guard but he's a distributor first, a scorer second... u'r talking about a guy who's averaged 10 or more assists his past 5 seasons & only averaged 13 or less shot attempts per game over the same time span... a big departure from Brandon Jennings who's taking 17 per game... now u can argue that he needs to be taking that many shots because he doesn't have much help on his team, & in a sense i'd agree w/u, but i also don't think he'll ever be at his best trying to be like Steve Nash... for Jennings to be at his best, he needs to take an AI mentality & use his quickness & scoring ability to his best advantage... i think w/his skillset he should easily be getting to the FT line at least 8-9 times a game.

Deron Williams and Chris Paul are averaging 14 and 15 FGA's per game while Jennings is averaging 17 FGA's per game. I dont think anyone would call Williams or Paul shoot first guards. When you are the 1st-2nd best player on a team you are going to get shots.

Jennings has little in common with Iverson except for speed. He also isnt as good off the dribble as Iverson either. If Jennings tries to emulate Iverson he will be a massive bust.

so u think Jennings has a pass first mentality? what evidence do u have to prove this? Deron Williams & CP3 are not averaging as many FGA's per game as Jennings & yet both are much more established players in this league & just plain better all around PG's... how does ur statement support your argument here? both those guys are clearly the best players on their respective teams... part of what makes them great players is their ability to create for others & get other guys involved in the flow of the offense... Jennings has not proven himself to be a pass first mentality PG, not at this stage... when he's at his best, he's looking to score first, pass second... i disagree when u say he has little in common w/AI... to me they play the same style of basketball... AI is an alltime greatest player to ever play the game, i don't expect Jennings to reach his level, but we're talking about style of game here... his rookie season AI averaged 20 FGA's per game & put up 24 & 8... yes, he got his share of assists but he was always a shoot first G... i view Jennings' career unfolding in that mold... i don't ever think Jennings will be a double digit assist player, i just can't see it.

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1/23/2010  8:59 PM
MDA doesn't have an issue with his PG shooting, in fact he needs that to be a serious threat so that the floor remains open, but the PG has to really be looking pass 1st and then if it's getting late in the clock or he's being given a wide open shot he should take it without hesitation. Remarkably we have done really well as a team passing the ball with Lee, Gallo, Jared and Chan out there. Duhon isn't a great ast/TO ratio guy, but we've been OK in terms of TO's despite his poor passing. We're avg'ing 20 assists and only 14.5 TO's. That's great for this team which had for years been horrible at assists and TO's. Just imagine what it would be like with a PG that takes great care with the ball and sets up his teammates well?
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1/23/2010  8:59 PM
TMS wrote:so u think Jennings has a pass first mentality? what evidence do u have to prove this? Deron Williams & CP3 are not averaging as many FGA's per game as Jennings & yet both are much more established players in this league & just plain better all around PG's... how does ur statement support your argument here? both those guys are clearly the best players on their respective teams... part of what makes them great players is their ability to create for others & get other guys involved in the flow of the offense... Jennings has not proven himself to be a pass first mentality PG, not at this stage... when he's at his best, he's looking to score first, pass second... i disagree when u say he has little in common w/AI... to me they play the same style of basketball... AI is an alltime greatest player to ever play the game, i don't expect Jennings to reach his level, but we're talking about style of game here... his rookie season AI averaged 20 FGA's per game & put up 24 & 8... yes, he got his share of assists but he was always a shoot first PG... i view Jennings' career unfolding in that mold... i don't ever think Jennings will be a double digit assist player, i just can't see it.

Im watching Minny versus Milwaukee now and Jennings has 3 or 4 assists. The announcer even stated if his teammates actually made shots he'd average 10 assists a game. He feeds the hot hand and creates wide open shots for teammate because of his speed and penetration ability.

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1/23/2010  9:04 PM
Jennings is a hell of a talent and has the potential to be a special player. To make matters worse, we needed a point guard. I want to see Hill succeed and all, but lets be real.

Im not seeing all these signs of immaturity either. He pops off at the mouth a lil' so what?

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1/23/2010  9:07 PM    LAST EDITED: 1/23/2010  9:08 PM
nixluva wrote:MDA doesn't have an issue with his PG shooting, in fact he needs that to be a serious threat so that the floor remains open, but the PG has to really be looking pass 1st and then if it's getting late in the clock or he's being given a wide open shot he should take it without hesitation. Remarkably we have done really well as a team passing the ball with Lee, Gallo, Jared and Chan out there. Duhon isn't a great ast/TO ratio guy, but we've been OK in terms of TO's despite his poor passing. We're avg'ing 20 assists and only 14.5 TO's. That's great for this team which had for years been horrible at assists and TO's. Just imagine what it would be like with a PG that takes great care with the ball and sets up his teammates well?

Duhon's A/TO ratio is 3.3 this year... that's 7th in the NBA... just for comparison Deron Williams is 12th in the NBA at 2.9 & Steve Nash is 13th at 2.8... taking care of the ball is not Duhon's problem... it's his inability to present a scoring threat at all.

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Revisiting Jennings v. Hill

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