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An interesting statistic
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OldFan
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12/20/2009  10:26 AM    LAST EDITED: 12/20/2009  10:32 AM
I was thinking about what made a good point guard and decided to play with some stats. A PG can end a possesion by making an assist, making a turnover, making a shot or missing a shot (if we count an offensive rebound as a "new" possesion). So a good point guard would have a good ration of assists+ made shots/TO + missed shots. Because of the three point shot I think we need to adjust for made three pointers - we can count a made 3 pointer as 1.5 made shots. I ran this formula on a number of point guards using this years stats:

2.1 paul
2.1 Rondo
2.0 nash
1.9 kidd
1.6 D.williams
1.4 M. Bibby

I also ran it against the career stats of a few players:
1.8 Magic
2.1 Stockton
1.3 Thomas

You can see from the above that the statistic clearly favors pass first point guards. Which makes sense as Assist to turnover ratios are going to be higher then made shots/ missed shot ratios. So I think this stat is more valuable when comparing "Pass First" point guards rather then shoot first point guards.

I then made an adjustment for foul shots as that is another way a point guard can end a possession. I have no way of knowing how a foul shot ame about - in the bonus, technical foul, shooting foul - so a rough estimate I added into the made shots category an addition shot for every two made foul shots. To make this statistic more useful I think you'd have to adjust for number of shots as this clearly favors passers over shooters and for comparing old timers you 'd have to adjust for not having a three point shot. But in general most of the truly great point guards who took a lot of shots still managed a good ratio (well except Isiah). First column is without adjustment for foul shots second column is with adjustment for foul shots.

2.14 2.36 Stockton career
2.13 2.36 paul 09-10
2.07 2.15 Rondo 09-10
1.92 2.30 O. Robertson career *- Pre 3pt shot
1.96 2.12 nash 09-10
2.01 2.12 Bogues career
1.79 2.05 Magic career
1.83 2.00 Cheeks career *- Had one year Pre 3pt
1.71 1.97 W Frazier Career -* Pre 3pt shot
1.90 1.95 kidd 09-10
1.52 1.88 west career *- Pre 3 pt shot
1.71 1.87 nash career
1.70 1.82 Jackson Career
1.61 1.80 D.williams 09-10
1.45 1.66 Rivers Career
1.17 1.63 Bayless 09-10
1.45 1.56 duhon career
1.41 1.52 duhon 09-10
1.42 1.51 sparrow career
1.44 1.51 Bibby 09-10
1.33 1.49 I.Thomas career
1.39 1.47 ward career
1.31 1.43 Rose 09 08-09
1.19 1.41 T Parker 09-10
1.22 1.39 B. Davis 09-10
1.21 1.32 Felton 09-10
1.18 1.32 M.williams 09-10
1.11 1.32 T Evans 09-10
1.18 1.27 S Curry 09-10
1.11 1.25 A .Brooks 09-10
1.12 1.24 Rose 09-10
1.04 1.22 westbrook 09-10
1.05 1.22 G. Arenas 09-10
1.08 1.20 Jennings 09-10
1.01 1.15 Flynn 09-10
1.11 1.15 Douglas 09-10
0.90 1.09 R.Stucky 09-10

AUTOADVERT
OldFan
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12/20/2009  10:31 AM
Note Duhon comes in well behind Walt Frazier and Mark Jackson, Slightly behind Doc Rivers and slightly ahead of Rory Sparrow and Charlie Ward amongst the former knicks guards on this list.
OldFan
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12/20/2009  10:32 AM
I also think it's pretty amazing that oscar Robinson who played before the three point shot and took a lot of shots still managed to have such a high ratio.
orangeblobman
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Nauru
12/20/2009  10:33 AM
There you have it, Duhon is NOT the worst point guard in the world . Nice statting, Oldfan.
WE AIN'T NOWHERE WITH THIS BUM CHOKER IN CARMELO. GIVE ME STARKS'S 2-21 ANY DAY OVER THIS LACKLUSTER CLUSTEREFF.
arkrud
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12/20/2009  11:10 AM
So finally it's a truth - Isiah sucks on everything, including playing bbal.
Not a surprise that he selected Steph - another loser (by the way - what are his carier stats in your system?).
And clearly players in your nubers above 2 and close to 2 are the best PGs in the game.
Good job getting to the bottom of it...
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
arkrud
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12/20/2009  11:13 AM
orangeblobman wrote:There you have it, Duhon is NOT the worst point guard in the world . Nice statting, Oldfan.

Duhon is as avarage as it gets.
The team of Duhons on all positions will win 35 games each year and never be in play-offs.
But he is not a minus, just 0 - no problems/no impact

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
OldFan
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12/20/2009  11:25 AM
arkrud wrote:So finally it's a truth - Isiah sucks on everything, including playing bbal.
Not a surprise that he selected Steph - another loser (by the way - what are his carier stats in your system?).
And clearly players in your nubers above 2 and close to 2 are the best PGs in the game.
Good job getting to the bottom of it...

1.26 1.45 Marbury - Slightly worse then Charlie Ward

arkrud
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12/20/2009  12:02 PM
OldFan wrote:
arkrud wrote:So finally it's a truth - Isiah sucks on everything, including playing bbal.
Not a surprise that he selected Steph - another loser (by the way - what are his carier stats in your system?).
And clearly players in your nubers above 2 and close to 2 are the best PGs in the game.
Good job getting to the bottom of it...

1.26 1.45 Marbury - Slightly worse then Charlie Ward

Thank You...
What a bust... and sadly he has so many followers. So sad that today NBA advrtising machine makes this types looks good.

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
SupremeCommander
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12/20/2009  12:08 PM
I like the idea of this equation. I think you need to tinker with it more. A possession can end with no output regarding a PG's stats. And the ball doesn't necessarily have to be controlled by a point during every possession. Ideally you'd like to reward a point for initiating the offense and the outcome netting points.

Good idea though

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
EwingsGlass
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12/20/2009  12:46 PM
SupremeCommander wrote:I like the idea of this equation. I think you need to tinker with it more. A possession can end with no output regarding a PG's stats. And the ball doesn't necessarily have to be controlled by a point during every possession. Ideally you'd like to reward a point for initiating the offense and the outcome netting points.

Good idea though

I was thinking the same thing. The PG can pass the ball and result in a missed shot by the recipient. On the otherhand, the PG pass it off to a player standing 27 ft from the basket who throws up a prayer (which goes in) and it counts as an assist. My thought is that the missed shots can be normalized over time if you give a FG% adjustment... the only issue there is whether the PG has a positive effect on the team's FG% or whether the team's FG% has a positive effect on the PG's output in this equation.

I think we can all agree that the quality of players surrounding Nash and Rondo are much better than the quality of players surrounding Chris Paul>

Also, there is an obvious bias against shoot-first PGs. Except for guys who drive more often than shoot (i.e. Rondo, Tony Parker), their FG% are going to be less than 50%. However, the Assist to Turnover Ratio is going to be a positive number for most PGs and should be around 3 o 3.5 for the best PGs. What happens is that the Assist to Turnover Ratio is skewed very negatively for guys who take a lot of shots (like Isiah Thomas did).

You know I gonna spin wit it
kam77
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12/20/2009  1:16 PM
SO Duhon is way better than Jennings. Interesting.
lol @ being BANNED by Martin since 11/07/10 (for asking if Mr. Earl had a point). Really, Martin? C'mon. This is the internet. I've seen much worse on this site. By Earl himself. Drop the hypocrisy.
kam77
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12/20/2009  1:18 PM
We should look at Bayless. Portland needs a big man. Lee for Bayless and their #1pick would be a fair trade for both sides.
lol @ being BANNED by Martin since 11/07/10 (for asking if Mr. Earl had a point). Really, Martin? C'mon. This is the internet. I've seen much worse on this site. By Earl himself. Drop the hypocrisy.
orangeblobman
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Nauru
12/20/2009  1:28 PM
Jennings ain't all that great. And his attitude concerns me. It's too early to say but he may be another Marbury in the making.

For example, after being fined the other day for tweeting within 45 minutes of game end, he says "it's not like I said anything bad, I was just happy we won", totally ignoring the fact that the reason he was fined was because he tweeted within 45 minutes of game end. And then he says "I'm about to get rid of my twitter, it cost me 7500$". No, IT didn't cost you anything, you cost yourself. This is proof of wrong-thinking. Given his early success, it doesn't look like he'll have much motivation to change his ways, which could lead to a Marbury-type ego. Is ok we didn't get him, I think.

WE AIN'T NOWHERE WITH THIS BUM CHOKER IN CARMELO. GIVE ME STARKS'S 2-21 ANY DAY OVER THIS LACKLUSTER CLUSTEREFF.
loweyecue
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12/20/2009  1:33 PM
Bouges(career) > Nash (career)? don't know about that.
TKF on Melo ::....he is a punk, a jerk, a self absorbed out of shape, self aggrandizing, unprofessional, volume chucking coach killing playoff loser!!
AnubisADL
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12/20/2009  2:20 PM
orangeblobman wrote:Jennings ain't all that great. And his attitude concerns me. It's too early to say but he may be another Marbury in the making.

For example, after being fined the other day for tweeting within 45 minutes of game end, he says "it's not like I said anything bad, I was just happy we won", totally ignoring the fact that the reason he was fined was because he tweeted within 45 minutes of game end. And then he says "I'm about to get rid of my twitter, it cost me 7500$". No, IT didn't cost you anything, you cost yourself. This is proof of wrong-thinking. Given his early success, it doesn't look like he'll have much motivation to change his ways, which could lead to a Marbury-type ego. Is ok we didn't get him, I think.

The guy is 20 yrs old and would be a college sophomore. He is young and was venting about losing $7,500 bucks. I suspect Kobe and other star players make similar comments behind closed doors. Do you remember Kobe's comments about Bynum? We would have never known if it were not for the digital information age.

NY Knicks - Retirement home for players and GMs
TMS
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12/20/2009  3:11 PM
OldFan wrote:Note Duhon comes in well behind Walt Frazier and Mark Jackson, Slightly behind Doc Rivers and slightly ahead of Rory Sparrow and Charlie Ward amongst the former knicks guards on this list.

any stat where Duhon comes out over Isiah Thomas has to be misleading

After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
arkrud
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12/20/2009  3:25 PM
TMS wrote:
OldFan wrote:Note Duhon comes in well behind Walt Frazier and Mark Jackson, Slightly behind Doc Rivers and slightly ahead of Rory Sparrow and Charlie Ward amongst the former knicks guards on this list.

any stat where Duhon comes out over Isiah Thomas has to be misleading

This stats are about PG skills not about bbol/player skills in general.
Isiah was not a pure PG by any streach. And it is nothing wrong about it.
LA has Fisher and still wins the Title(s). It's all about the system and players matching to each other.

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
OldFan
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12/20/2009  3:31 PM
EwingsGlass wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:I like the idea of this equation. I think you need to tinker with it more. A possession can end with no output regarding a PG's stats. And the ball doesn't necessarily have to be controlled by a point during every possession. Ideally you'd like to reward a point for initiating the offense and the outcome netting points.

Good idea though

I was thinking the same thing. The PG can pass the ball and result in a missed shot by the recipient. On the otherhand, the PG pass it off to a player standing 27 ft from the basket who throws up a prayer (which goes in) and it counts as an assist. My thought is that the missed shots can be normalized over time if you give a FG% adjustment... the only issue there is whether the PG has a positive effect on the team's FG% or whether the team's FG% has a positive effect on the PG's output in this equation.

I think we can all agree that the quality of players surrounding Nash and Rondo are much better than the quality of players surrounding Chris Paul>

Also, there is an obvious bias against shoot-first PGs. Except for guys who drive more often than shoot (i.e. Rondo, Tony Parker), their FG% are going to be less than 50%. However, the Assist to Turnover Ratio is going to be a positive number for most PGs and should be around 3 o 3.5 for the best PGs. What happens is that the Assist to Turnover Ratio is skewed very negatively for guys who take a lot of shots (like Isiah Thomas did).

Yeah - I noted this bias in my original post. That's why Oscar, West and Fraziers numbers really standout. They shot a lot, didn't have the advantage of the 3 pointer and still had good ratios.

I agree it needs some work. I think trying to account for possessions where the play didn't terminate in the PG getting assist, making a turnover or taking a shot would require watching film. Don't know how you'd account for that based on box scores.

OldFan
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12/20/2009  3:32 PM
loweyecue wrote:Bouges(career) > Nash (career)? don't know about that.

Nope he ain't. As specified it favors PGs who shoot less and I haven't made an appropriate adjustment for that. I'm wading thru the response for some help - if you have ideas.

TMS
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12/20/2009  3:42 PM
arkrud wrote:
TMS wrote:
OldFan wrote:Note Duhon comes in well behind Walt Frazier and Mark Jackson, Slightly behind Doc Rivers and slightly ahead of Rory Sparrow and Charlie Ward amongst the former knicks guards on this list.

any stat where Duhon comes out over Isiah Thomas has to be misleading

This stats are about PG skills not about bbol/player skills in general.
Isiah was not a pure PG by any streach. And it is nothing wrong about it.
LA has Fisher and still wins the Title(s). It's all about the system and players matching to each other.

anyone who watched Isiah play wanna tell me he didn't have better pure PG skills than Chris Duhon or Jerryd Bayless?

After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
An interesting statistic

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