39-43 made the playoffs last season so we will use that as a bench mark here.
Format is: Current place, team, record, last 10, rec %, L10 %, record needed to go 38-44 (allowing NYK to get in with 39 wins), rec % to go 38-44.
8th. Detroit, 9-12, 4-6, .429, .400, 29-32, .475
9th. Toronto, 10-14, 4-6, .417, .400, 28-30, .482
10th. Wizards, 7-12, 5-5, .368, .500, 31-32, .492
11th. Chicago, 7-13, 1-9, .350, .100, 31-31, .500
12th. Pacers, 6-13, 1-9, .316, .100, 32-31, .507
13th. Knicks, 7-15, 4-6, .318, .400, 32-28, .533 (we need 39 wins to win 8th outright)
Yes, we are 13th, Pacers 12th, because we are 10.5 games out of 1st, the Pacers 10.0 games out.
As you can see, the Pistons, Pacers, Wizards are all playing equal to better than us even over just the last 10 games, the same games we were playing much better in. We made no ground here.
Keep in mind that 40 or 41 wins to make the playoffs would compound our problems quite a lot. Every year the 4-10 east teams start off slow it seems and then they get going and raise their win percentages as time goes forward. Every year it seems 35-37 wins will make the 8th seed early on but it ends up being 39-41 wins as those win percentages rise with teams playing better.
For the Knicks:
Record -- Needed wins % win Percentage of remaining games.
39-43 - 32-28, .533
40-42 - 33-27, .550
41-41 - 34-26, .566
42-40 - 35-25, .583
As you can see it goes from slim chance to no chance in a hurry.