2009 NBA Draft: Just lousy or all-time terrible?
By Nick_Prevenas
Sat, 06/20/2009 - 12:00am
By now, I’m sure you’ve heard that some people don’t think too highly of this year’s NBA draft.

People expect franchise-altering talent to be available at every turn — especially those teams consistently trapped in the lottery.




Jrue Holiday


Unfortunately, the real world simply doesn’t work that way.

Last year’s draft was surprisingly excellent — one of those rare drafts that featured a franchise talent (Derrick Rose), a handful of legitimate NBA starters with All-Star potential (OJ Mayo, Brook Lopez, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, even Courtney Lee) and even more players who showed flashes in limited playing time (DJ Augustin, Anthony Randolph, Jason Thompson, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, JJ Hickson, Marreese Speights, Ryan Anderson, DeAndre Jordan, George Hill, Jerryd Bayless, Mario Chalmers).

This year’s draft pales in comparison. It’s highly unlikely that it’ll match last year’s draft in terms of quality depth, and it will have an impossible time measuring up against any of the other terrific drafts of this era (the Durant-Oden 2007, the Roy-Aldridge 2006, the Paul-Williams 2005, the Dwight Howard 2004, and of course the James-Melo-Wade class of 2003).

Twenty years from now, hoops scholars will look on that six-year stretch as one of the most pivotal eras in NBA history. The amount of quality talent came into the league during that stretch boggles the mind. Surely, the league was due for a down year eventually, right?

Well, it appears as if this is that down year.

Outside of Blake Griffin, every prospect in this year’s draft comes attached with some serious question marks. Heck, even Griffin’s NBA future is murky, thanks to the perpetually horrible Los Angeles Clippers winning the lottery. It’s one thing to toss up 30/20 on a regular basis in the Big 12; quite another to keep your sanity as a potential All-Star trapped in Clipperdom. Before too long, the word “Clipper” will become shorthand for “horrifying, franchise-crippling injury,” as in “Adrian Peterson was set to lead the Minnesota Vikings’ rushing attack, but he suffered a Clipper and he’s out for the year.”

But at least we know Griffin has All-Star potential. What about the rest of these guys?

The 2009 draft frequently draws comparisons to the 2000 draft — otherwise known as the worst draft in NBA history. Kenyon Martin (a player eerily similar to Griffin) went No. 1 overall, but never developed into the dominant power forward we expected to see after his career at Cincinnati was stopped short by a broken leg. He turned into a key cog in the Denver Nuggets’ run to the Western Conference Finals, but injuries have held back a potentially promising career.

The rest of that draft was just dreadful. Marcus Fizer? Keyon Dooling? Jerome Moiso? Courtney Alexander? Lottery picks. Seriously.

Without Hedo Turkoglu (No. 16) and Michael Redd (No. 43), that draft would’ve been a total lost cause.

Is this year’s draft that bad?

At this point, I’m leaning no. However, it is the type of draft where a team would much rather pick in the 15-25 range than from 4-13.

Given the current economic climate, most teams would rather take a flier on a decent prospect in the second half of round one than guarantee a high-dollar lottery salary to someone who may or may not become a real NBA contributor.

This year, it’s really easy to talk oneself into a “workout warrior” or fall in love with a prospect’s potential.

For example, Jrue Holiday could go as high as No. 4 to the Sacramento Kings. He should have to give 10 percent of his salary to Russell Westbrook as a commission, because Holiday would never be considered a top-five pick without Westbrook’s eye-opening rookie season in Oklahoma City.

On paper, Holiday makes sense. He has excellent size and athleticism for the point-guard spot, and Sacramento desperately needs a playmaker. Holiday had a predictably strong showing at the NBA draft combine and has a lot of scouts on his size, thanks to his stellar showings in those high school AAU tournaments.

But I honestly can’t remember a single play Holiday made last year at UCLA.

Some say Ben Howland’s system hides players, who then go on to achieve NBA success (pointing toward Mbah a Moute and Westbrook as examples). However, what exactly did Holiday show to deserve his draft standing?

It’s nothing against Holiday. Any other year, he’d be flying under the radar and he could become a pleasant surprise for someone. But Holiday — along with guys like Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan, Stephen Curry, Jordan Hill, Jeff Teague, and so on — are seeing their stock artificially inflated because of the lack of competition.

We have guys like DaJuan Blair — a guy who would’ve been a nice sleeper in the 20s — being talked about as a lottery pick, thanks to guys like Paul Milsap proving that you don’t need to be tall to know how to rebound. We’re seeing guys like Tyler Hansbrough — an ideal role player and energy guy — rumored to go as high as No. 11 to New Jersey, just because there aren’t many prototypical “tough guys” in this draft.

Even guys I really like (James Harden, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington) have question marks surrounding them, too. I think Harden has a lot of Brandon Roy in him, but will he be able to shake off his dreadful showing in the NCAA Tournament? Lawson’s speed makes him nearly impossible to defend in today’s handcheck-free NBA, but will his low line-drive jumper find enough clearance against bigger defenders? Ellington has everything you want in a 2-guard, but does he have the leaping ability and strength to battle the Jason Richardsons of the world?

And we haven’t even discussed Hasheem Thabeet yet. Some think he’s the next Dikembe Mutombo, others swear he’ll be out of the league in less than five years. It’s true that you can’t teach 7-foot-3, but whichever team drafts him better be prepared to go four-on-five on offense until Thabeet learns a post move or two. That’s not something you want to hear about the potential No. 2 pick.

What about Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio? His high-profile success in the 2008 Olympics and his uncanny resemblance to a young Steve Nash helps his cause, but his off-and-on jumper and the serious buyout issues with his professional team make him a risky proposition in the 2-4 range.

Ultimately, I think the 2009 draft will yield a handful of solid pros, putting it ahead of the 2000 class. But anybody expecting a replica of the 2008 draft will need to lower those expectations.

If this draft doesn’t quite pan out, we still have John Wall to look forward to in 2010.

If everyone is off the board and the Knicks are left with Jrue Holiday, I pray to God the Knicks pass him up and take Teagues, Maynor or even Ty Lawson. I just don't see this guys game translating to the NBA.

How could they say its the worse if the players never played a game?

Didn't Mike Miller win the Rookie of the year? How bout the Bogut/Marvin Williams draft? Enough is enough.

Say what you want about the draft from the 2-5 positions but is loaded at point... maybe not many top tier prospects but many quality starters/rotation players, which is something the league needs

Geeze, if the Knicks pick Jrue it would really ruin my summer Holiday ;)

I don't know if this draft is better than 01...01 had Gasol, Battier, Richardson, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry. 00, maybe...no one stands out in 2000. Maybe Kenyon Martin but he has that lip tattoo on his neck.

Not as bad as the 2000 draft but the worst draft since then. I think 2001 was pretty bad at the top, but ended up with a lot of star level players taken later.

Would it be that bad to pick Holiday if Rubio, Curry, Hill and Evans are gone? I've read he is one of the prospects with most potential...

Posted by orangeblobman:

I don't know if this draft is better than 01...01 had Gasol, Battier, Richardson, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry. 00, maybe...no one stands out in 2000. Maybe Kenyon Martin but he has that lip tattoo on his neck.

Griffin will be better than any of those guys IMO, & plenty of guys in this draft will be better than guys like Richardson & Battier... & u seriously wanna include Eddy Curry in that list at this point?

Jennings will be the guy who adds talent depth to this draft. Him and Griffin are going to be more than solid pros... I'm talking 12+ year career players in the NBA. A couple other decent players too who may make it to their third contract.

not really, because i thought gallo looked good when he played.

an article that doesn't list him at this point, when he was barely healthy all last year isn't something i'm too worried about.

let's see if he can recover from his injury and how he plays over the next few years.

it's a bit early to start clamoring over players who were rookies last year.

remember, channing frye was on the all-rookie 1st team.

Posted by franco12:

Does anyone else get sick when reading these articles where they talk about all the great talent drafted last year, and players after Gallo are mentioned, but not Gallo?

I just hope Walsh & MDA don't screw this up!

Why let a reporter determine how you feel about your team and its players. I echo what PresIke said. Can't get too worked up over Gallo at this point. He was injured. If he shows potential this year then who cares about last year. If he stinks, then I'll get worked up. For now, it's basketball. People get hurt in basketball. Can't get upset over 1 year.