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Picture of a healthy cap/Reality check
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JohnWallace44
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3/14/2009  3:00 PM
Knicks - 2010
Eddy Curry ----------$11,276,863 (player option)
Jared Jeffries ------$6,883,400 (player option)
Danilo Gallinari ----$3,304,560 (team option)
Wilson Chandler -----$2,130,481 (team option)
2009 #1 pick --------$2,143,080 *estimated 2nd year salary of #11 pick

Totals:
$20,303,343 - Estimated Cap - $54 Million


*Max starting salary for 7 year player in 2010 estimated at $16,000,000
In theory, if we leave room for a LeBron type, there would be about $12 million left for any other commitments.


Here's an example of a salary structure for a team that's under the current cap. What you'll notice here is that all but three of these salaries are below the mid-level exception level. In 2010, the mid-level will be around $5.5 million.

Memphis 2008/09
Antoine Walker ------$8,854,475
Darko Milicic -------$7,000,000
Marko Jaric ---------$6,575,000
OJ Mayo -------------$3,875,040
Greg Buckner --------$3,759,259
Mike Conley ---------$3,630,480
Marc Gasol ----------$3,000,000
Steve Francis -------$2,634,480
Rudy Gay ------------$2,579,400
Chris Mihm ----------$2,500,000
Damon Stoudamire ----$2,325,000
Hakim Warrick -------$2,119,101
Hamed Haddadi -------$1,572,221
Adonal Foyle --------$1,262,275
Mike Wilks ----------$998,398
Darrell Arthur -----$977,160
Darius Miles --------$875,409
Quinton Ross --------$797,581
Shaun Livingston ----$370,000

TOTALS:
$55,705,279 (NBA Cap - $58 Million)


I post this to bring some structure to the Nate and Lee resigning debates and the Sessions UFA debate.
There is an extremely small amount of room for error under the cap when you're trying to make room for a Max player or two and you already have two relative duds eating up your cap dollars.

If you want to give Sessions the mid-level... it's not like the Isiah days. There are ramifications if we do that.
If you want to give Lee $10 million... that takes up almost all of your remaining space and does not allow you to do things like buying a couple of draft picks.
If you want to resign Nate because he's a "superstar", well we can't pay him like a superstar unless we know that he's worth sacrificing a chance at a "superstar" that has a winning track record down the road.

Since we passed the last trade deadline, my thought is that you almost have to trade Nate and Lee for picks that will cost us a couple of million a piece against the cap. The way the numbers break down, that just seems like the reality.

You can at least see why I've been saying that, if you resign Nate or Lee, you just have to believe that they can be a piece to a championship team. Otherwise, the only purpose of signing them would be as a gate attraction.
Alan Hahn: Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
AUTOADVERT
TMS
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3/14/2009  4:04 PM
thanks for that JW... i think the cap situation's been explained to these guys a ton of times already but i like how u outlined it here.

it's unfortunate but Knick fans have become conditioned not to think in realistic terms over the years... they're only concern seems to be on just making the playoffs every year, no matter what... long range vision is sacrificed for the quick short term fix almost every time... i'm glad to finally have a GM who seemingly so far has a long range plan in mind.
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
JohnWallace44
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3/14/2009  4:34 PM
I thought Donnie could have considered using the expirings to get big-time players and shortcut the rebuilding...maybe it was considered.

Looking at it positively though, we control some decent assets. The best use of them to me is going to be to trade them for picks unless we can get Nate to sign for a $5-$6 million type deal.

You have to be disciplined to pull this off. You can't project, you have to know.

We have to use Portland as a model and build pieces while we wait for a proved star to hit the market.


Logically, this draft should be packed because of the coming CBA and economic problems. We have to hit on whoever we end up picking this year.
Alan Hahn: Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
TMS
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3/14/2009  4:39 PM
i think this draft is very deep & we really should be looking to gain an extra pick w/a trade to acquire cheap young talent while freeing up cap flexibility in 2010 at the same time.
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
franco12
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3/14/2009  5:31 PM
TMS- there is no way that we shouldn't be able to buy at least 1 first rounder, if not 2.
fishmike
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3/14/2009  5:45 PM
that might represent the most backward thinking I have read here in a long time.

If you resign Nate or Lee they are either a gate attraction or you believe that they are part of a title contender.

Typical impatient Knick fan thinking. I guess we should not have drafted them in the first place if we didnt believe back then that they would be part of a title team? Or are we just renting until the next crop like the Clippers have done for 25 years

Knicks have never BUILT anything so its no wonder to see this kind of thinking.

Since only one team has ever gone out and bought a max FA that delivered them a title I consider that path to a title being at best a longshot. And the case with that team was a bit unique as everyone knew he was going to one place and one place only.

The goal should be to build the best team you can, improve each year while maintaining as much flexibility as circumstances dictate.

Give me one good example in NBA history where a team let their own drafted good players walk to clear cap space which resulted in the kind results Knick fans are expecting in 2010.

To add to that please show me the superstar FA that has left their team to go somewhere else via FA. Baron Davis? Gilbert Arenas? Elton Brand? Lamar Odom? Is that the level of elite championship caliber player we are shooting for in 2010?

Do tell.

The great thing about the cap space arguement is your never wrong. Until of course you dont sign anyone and win 23 games the next year and let your best players walk. But until then its Lebron and Amare in 2010.

If Walsh can move Curry and JJ for expiring contract thats a different story. Letting two guys go that are 24-25, getting better every year and averaging 18/4/4 and 17/12/56% for something that has about a 2% chance of happening is worse than any move Isiah made.

PS. Ramon Sessions is an overrated backup on a team playing .300 basketball. Hey, maybe he could be the next Jamal Crawford
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
TMS
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3/14/2009  6:04 PM
Posted by fishmike:

The goal should be to build the best team you can, improve each year while maintaining as much flexibility as circumstances dictate.

as far as i know that's the goal that JW is trying to address w/his line of thinking... not everyone feels the way u do that building a team around players like Nate & Lee will lead us to an NBA championship fish.

one could easily counter your arguments by asking u to give examples of teams that have won championships when their best players were guys like D Lee & Nate Robinson... u need superstars to win championships in the NBA... it's been proven year after year... no one says u gotta dump guys like Lee & Nate for nothing but u gotta keep the big picture in mind here... the goal should be to build a championship team, not just another playoff also ran.

[Edited by - TMS on 03-14-2009 3:08 PM]
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JohnWallace44
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3/14/2009  6:12 PM
Here's an unstoppable scorer who doesn't distribute and didn't lead his initial team to wins so they let him go...

Gilbert Arenas

He won't lead Washington to anything down the road. Injuries or not.

Another similar player that's a perfect 6th man, but won't lead you to a championship is...

Ben Gordon

The Bulls won't sign him to a long term deal. They know that's not the right move.
Alan Hahn: Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
nyk4ever
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3/14/2009  6:13 PM
I think Lee and Nate have done an incredible job for us. They have played well and now you have to look at it the team as presently constructed. If you make a trade and bring in some players, will it be enough to lead us to a championship?

I would say if you go on that line of thinking, Carmelo Anthony would be the best possible player to add to this team via trade since anyone who seems to "subscribe" to this line of thinking doesn't think we will be able to sign one of the big FA's in 2010. Is Melo, Lee, Nate, Hughes, Harrington enough to win a championship? And that is going on the fact that we wouldn't have to trade Lee or Nate to get Melo. What is left after we do trade for him?

I think at this point we have to sell high on BOTH Lee/Nate. You can't start building a team by paying guys like Lee/Nate before you pay the guy that's going to bring you the championship. I say we trade them both for a young stud or two and some draft picks and collect our assets to either ADD to the 2010 FA signing(s) or trade those assets along with the capspace in a Garnett type deal in 2010.
"OMG - did we just go on a two-trade-wining-streak?" -SupremeCommander
fishmike
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3/14/2009  6:19 PM
Posted by JohnWallace44:

Here's an unstoppable scorer who doesn't distribute and didn't lead his initial team to wins so they let him go...

Gilbert Arenas

He won't lead Washington to anything down the road. Injuries or not.

Another similar player that's a perfect 6th man, but won't lead you to a championship is...

Ben Gordon

The Bulls won't sign him to a long term deal. They know that's not the right move.
Ben Gordon still on his current team. Arenas was lost because GS could not match, which prompted a change in the CBA known as the "Arenas" rule. So far very bad examples

TMS... stop putting words in my mouth. Where do I say build around Lee and NAte. Where do I say Lee and NAte are our best players. I never typed those words you did.

Lee and Nate are very good players we cannot afford to lose for nothing and should resign. Lee and Nate are players in their prime who are both productive and still improving. Lee and Nate have shown they can win games.

Signing Lee and Nate doesnt = we are done and thats our team.

Signing Lee and NAte = having a healthy cap. A not healthy cap is winning 30 games and paying max money to players your better without. A not healthy cap is being committed to a group of players with limited upside because their contracts are too hard to move.


"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
TMS
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3/14/2009  6:21 PM
Posted by franco12:

TMS- there is no way that we shouldn't be able to buy at least 1 first rounder, if not 2.

it seems that way every year & yet we never ever do it... i can't understand it.
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TMS
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3/14/2009  6:25 PM
Posted by fishmike:
TMS... stop putting words in my mouth. Where do I say build around Lee and NAte. Where do I say Lee and NAte are our best players. I never typed those words you did.

i didn't have to put those words into your mouth, it's just the way it is... if u extend Lee & Nate to the contracts they're going to get, u'r sacrificing any & all cap space to sign up a max FA in 2010... so u have to make a choice here... do u want to hold onto Lee & Nate & forego the 2010 plan, or do u want to try & trade 1 or both of them while their value is at its peak, gain some cap space in 2010, & build up w/younger, cheaper talent through the draft... i personally don't think it's a disaster if we pursue the latter... i think having flexibility in 2010 is the most important thing in Donnie's mind right now, & i see several good young talented prospects in this year's draft that i wouldn't mind adding to this team at all & who i think could eventually grow into players just as good if not better than David Lee & Nate Robinson... just MHO.
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JohnWallace44
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3/14/2009  8:38 PM
Fish - Nate and Lee are clearly our best players. That's not the point.

These two are ideally bench players on a championship team, I think most people would agree if they were honest with themselves.

These guys are putting up huge huge numbers for the Knicks.

I look at it the way Brian Cashman would.

If you look at the Knicks and their opponents by position.

Position  FGA   eFG%    FTA    iFG       Reb    Ast     T/O     Blk     PF      Pts     PER*
PG
1.1 +.011 0.6 3% -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 2.4 +0.8
SG
-3.6 -.024 -0.7 2% -0.2 1.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -5.2 -4.1
SF
-3.4 -.042 -1.9 -1% -0.8 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 -1.5 -6.3 -6.9
PF
3.6 -.026 -0.5 -8% -3.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8 2.4 -3.5
C
2.8 +.014 1.0 0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 -1.8 0.7 4.7 +3.5


A team like Utah has significant + ratings at PG, SF, PF, and C by comparison.

What this tells me is that we need to get a lot better to be winning games at the LeBron position(SF), the Bosh position (PF), and the Nate position (SG).

It also tells me that we have overall defensive problems, and you look at the pivot and we're playing a combo forward every night. We're getting beat on blocks by 1.8 per night at the center position.

If we had the key parts in place now, we could sign Nate and Lee and use them in the positions they are most efficient in and everyone would be happy.

Unfortunately, we don't have the parts, so we need to acquire them like Portland, OKC, New Orleans, and Utah have and then add the pieces to fill in, or sign guys who we develop ourselves to add to the mix.
Alan Hahn: Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
JohnWallace44
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3/14/2009  8:51 PM
Here's another analogy. Imagine the Phoenix Suns had Diaw and Barbosa on their team before Nash became a free agent.

They both performed well, they both earned a shot at a contract, but they wouldn't have signed Barbosa and Diaw if that was going to prevent them from signing Nash.

You get the star first, and then you can go over the cap to build around them.

(Now you're going to tell me how Nate's a star player)

I just don't think he's a difference maker in terms of a starting guard. He's an ideal guard to be able to bring off the bench.
Alan Hahn: Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
JohnWallace44
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3/14/2009  8:55 PM
Posted by fishmike:

Signing Lee and NAte = having a healthy cap. A not healthy cap is winning 30 games and paying max money to players your better without. A not healthy cap is being committed to a group of players with limited upside because their contracts are too hard to move.


Fish, this is a good point. If we sign them to favorable deals, then they are assets that we can spin off, but that's a big risk, and you'd better hope they don't blow out a knee.
Alan Hahn: Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
newyorknewyork
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3/14/2009  8:58 PM
I think we should go with the plan of trying to sell Lebron that Lee, Nate, Chandler can be co-stars to helping him win in NY.

Using the healthy cap layout we would have 16mil in cap space if we signed Lee to 10 mil per and Nate to 8mil per.

We could probably even trade down to unload Jeffries as well as pay less to our draft pick.

In 2011 we would have another 11mil come off the cap to sign another free agent. We would be able to go after Lebron resign nate & lee and go after a free agent in 2011.




https://vote.nba.com/en Vote for your Knicks.
JohnWallace44
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3/14/2009  9:07 PM
NewYorkNewYork - We will only have about $12 million in cap room if the cap goes down as expected. That would make the Max deal go down too, but let's not get into the minutia of it.

An article was just posted on RealGM speculating that Shawn Marion, a 2-Way, difference making player will be lucky to get $8 million this year. So we're not giving Nate and/or Lee more than that IMO.

"League insiders believe that Shawn Marion will be fortunate to earn a contract worth $8 million annually on the open market.

Marion, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, realizes that the current economic conditions aren't going to help drive up his value.

"We do talk about stuff like that, but is the NBA going to fold?" Marion said. "You see people in baseball and football signing these big-ass contracts and I'm pretty sure their attendance went down a little bit. Everyone is taking a hit, but at the same time it's not stopping people spending money.""
Alan Hahn: Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
TMS
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3/14/2009  9:08 PM
Posted by newyorknewyork:

I think we should go with the plan of trying to sell Lebron that Lee, Nate, Chandler can be co-stars to helping him win in NY.

Using the healthy cap layout we would have 16mil in cap space if we signed Lee to 10 mil per and Nate to 8mil per.

We could probably even trade down to unload Jeffries as well as pay less to our draft pick.

In 2011 we would have another 11mil come off the cap to sign another free agent. We would be able to go after Lebron resign nate & lee and go after a free agent in 2011.


& what about the other 4-7 roster spots that need to be filled? even if we sign up veteran's minimum level players to round out the rest of the roster we'll still need another $2-3 mil to come off the cap for that to be a feasible plan... in other words, we will need to dump either Fishlips or Curry's contract, or trade Chandler and Gallo next season for expirings & draft picks, at which point we may come across the same exact argument we're having now about keeping Lee & Nate.
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arkrud
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3/14/2009  10:00 PM
There are a lot of monetary arguments are thrown around Lee and Nate future with the Knicks.
But the main question for me is what are we building?
What about loyalty, what about players and coaches believe that they are building something together, that this is not stop-gap situation when they can be let go any time regardless of how they work and what they achieve? Is this what makes team a Team, and organization an Organization?
Can we stop once to roll the dice and start working and building something?
I guess I am asking too much...
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
JohnWallace44
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3/14/2009  11:25 PM
Lee and Nate should be rewarded for their efforts and they're loyalty to this franchise, but I can't imagine a different answer now that we've passed the 09 trade deadline.

You need to bring in some serious players to compliment either Lee or Nate and if you have them both on the floor as much as we do, to win a championship you would need KG and LeBron, forget Bosh and Bron in order to make the other parts work.

We're playing a specific system, and Nate and Lee have specific deficiencies that require specific types of players to cover up the deficiencies while at the same time fitting into the system.

I think it's just time to rebuild. It seems like the stars are aligned for it.

I just worry that Donnie will let these guys walk without doing a sign and trade.
Alan Hahn: Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
Picture of a healthy cap/Reality check

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