This is a work in progress, but if I were scripting for 2010, I would bet on getting Lebron and Wade as a package deal, each at the league maximum (in any event, we should get two of the top 5 guys--Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Stoudemire and JJohnson-- my thoughts are the same).

In preparation of that, I would try and clear cap space using Lee, Robinson, Chandler and our drafted player in the 2009 first year player draft because we cannot trade the pick (unless it is a franchise-type player, i.e. Blake Griffin). I wouldn't trade guys solely for the sake of trading them, but my premise is that each dollar of additional cap space in 2010 is exponentially more...

This means that under all circumstances, we need to have approximately $38.4M available in the 2010 offseason if there is a $64M cap. I previously posted my math on the Knick's current cap considerations for 2010:

Curry ($11M)
Jeffries ($6.8m)
Chandler ($2.1m)
Gallo ($3.3M)
2009 1st Rd Pick (Approx 2.5M)
2009 2nd Rd Pick ($500k)
2010 2nd Rd Pick ($500k)
and place holders for 3 minimum contracts at $400K each ($1.2)M.
= $27.9M of total salary.

So, my thoughts are that we should package Lee with Curry to any team (like Portland, who covets Lee but will never have cap space again for the next 10 years if their players pan out). I think a trade of Lee and Curry for Raef Lafrenz (expiring) and Sergio Rodriguez makes sense for both teams. Lee would have to agree to an extension to make this work. The Miles situation makes Portland more likely to trade for Lee outright now that they cannot sign him. [DISCLAIMER- I THINK DAVID LEE IS A GREAT PLAYER AND FITS IN OUR SYSTEM, IT IS JUST THAT THE TIMING ON HIS CONTRACT IS HAMPERING OUR PLANS. THIS IS A TOUGH DECISION, BUT WE ARE BETTER OFF WITH CAP SPACE-- I am happy trying to get more for Lee, but cap space is my primary concern].

I would also try and move Jeffries and Nate Robinson and a 2nd round pick to Sacramento for Kenny Thomas. I am not sure that they do this though... Jeffries is harder to move, we might have to give something up to be rid of him.

BUT, this is my logic on the first two trades and why we should overpay to be rid of them... when trading Lee and Robinson (or even Chandler or Gallo, as necessary)-- the cap space you acquire is worth a lot more after signing two stars. After signing the top two free agents, having an extra 10m or 15m of cap space can translate into several playoff-experienced veterans looking to get a ring (I will now refer to this as the Kidd Effect). If $10m of cap space turns into Jason Kidd at the MLE and, say, Jerry Stackhouse or Ben Wallace seeking a ring at $3M or $4M... even if they are past their primes, then LEE + CURRY FOR KIDD, LAFRENZ, RODRIGUEZ + STACKHOUSE is a bit more fair.

Due the Kidd Effect, I think the price of these veterans will drop once a couple stars call the garden home. So, after dropping Lee, Nate, Curry and Jeffries I would investigate Jason Kidd's interest in a 2-year MLE contract during the offseason. If he doesn't take it, maybe Nash does in 2010. Either way:

KIDD (5.4M)
WADE (18.2M)
JAMES (18.2M)
PF--
C--
CHANDLER (2.1M)
GALLO (3.3M)
2009 1st Rd Pick (Approx 2.5M)
2009 2nd Rd Pick ($500k)
2010 2nd Rd Pick ($500k)
_______________________
$45.3M under contract for 2010 = $18.7M of remaining cap space.

Embracing the Kidd Effect, we clearly still need a starting PF and C, but we have 18.7m of cap space to fill 4 required roster spots. If Duhon is playing well, resign him. If Harrington figures out his place on this team, give him a contract. Instead of filling up on rookies and players without playoff experience, you can look for bargain deals on veterans with added cap space.

Waiting for Curry and Jeffries to expire does nothing for us because the max contract increases and rookie contract increases will ensure that we will not have cap space after 2010.

In addition, consider the idea of the Kidd Effect in 2011 when we have the LLE and the MLE again- what types of players will be willing to take less money to play for a ring?

I love Lee and I like Robinson, but that cap space is worth so much more than what we get back... we need to drop more salary, at least, it is in our best interest to do so.

My only question is what it would take to realistically get rid of Curry and Jeffries because of their trade kickers...

Personally, and this wouldn't be 'get these guys or bust' of course, I'd like any one of these combos the best (in order): LeBron/Bosh, LeBron/Amar'e, Bosh/Johnson, Amar'e/Johnson. I'd love Bron/Bosh the most - in my mind, Bron's the elite-level star/do-it-all player and Bosh is the best/youngest big man available - both of these guys basically have no injury concerns and both are about 2 yrs. younger than the other guys. When we're talking about the best investment the Knicks could possibly make for max. dollars on a 2010 FA combo. package, it's Bron and Bosh - best all-around player, best big man. Something's telling me to stay away from Wade although he's a great player and we couldn't go wrong if we got him either I suppose. I just like the other guys a little more for us myself.

In the meantime, I'd definitely look to grab this kid Jeff Teague in the draft (I already talked about possibly guaranteeing him our pick this summer if we're between 5-8 -- this could be the Dwayne Wade type right here and for controlled money for the forseeable future) & continue to load up on inexpensive talent to round out this roster until 2010 - next yr. grab a Morris Almond, Gerald Green and Marcus Williams all for sensible deals to improve the roster talent base and improve roster flexibility (we might only be talking league minimum money for these 3 guys), look into getting a Josh Boone-type cost-effective defensive big maybe, acquire a 2nd rounder somehow and draft Taj Gibson for more frontcourt depth. Stuff like that. That's what I'd be looking to do. We get the proper cost-effective role players in place and continue to cut payroll like you're saying at all costs - even if it meant going a different direction with Lee and Robinson as a last resort. Both of those guys are our guys/homegrown talent and I'd love to have them here when we turn this around in a yr. and a half, but not if their demands hinder our cap flexibility and what we'd be able to add in 2010. Think about it - what's the better buy - Lee at $10+ mil. per or Bosh starting at $15-16 per? The answer's clearly Chris Bosh in my mind (by comparison Bosh is clearly the superior all-around talent who's actually younger than Lee to boot). As effective as Lee is, I'd bet anything that the top FAs would want to play with Bosh over Lee any day of the week, gun to their head (and don't discount the probability that they'd also love to play with a dynamic little player like Nate as well - Nate might really be worth keeping fellas - said it before, Nate and D'Antoni are huge pluses that might actually help us attract & secure the FAs we LOVE & WANT, not merely the ones we LIKE and have to settle for). As good as Lee's playing, and I love him, he's no Chris Bosh. Donnie will figure this out and John Gabriel will be there to help him - after all, we're gonna be looking to do pretty much exactly what Orlando attempted to do a few yrs. ago when they opened up a boatload of cap room and courted guys like Duncan, McGrady, Grant Hill, etc.. It didn't work out for Gabriel in Orlando exactly - Duncan decided to stay in SA and Grant Hill was still hurt and they got damaged goods - but come on, the dude had the right idea no? Say what you want about Gabriel, I think his experience might really come in handy.


[Edited by - finestrg on 01-20-2009 11:58 PM]

I keep going back between Lebron/Bosh and Lebron/Wade as my top choices... Wade's injuries are a real concern and I chose to overlook that, favoring Wade's higher reina value...even though he doesn't beat Bosh by much... what I like the most about Wade is his ability to get into the paint and draw the foul or kick it out to the open man... his FT% and his 3PT % are both suspect. But the end of the story is that any two of the top five guys give the Knicks a great starting position... especially if Kidd or Nash sign up at or around the MLE.

This 2009 offseason will be telling. Basically, the wheels have to be put in motion this offseason... that means making long term decisions on Lee and Nate, making a solid run at someone like Kidd... in order to do any of this without jeopardizing the 2010 plan Curry and/or Jeffries needs to be gone by this summer. AND, making a decision to spend 2.5m on a first year player is important. Unless our draft position can deliver a high percentage of success player who can contribute immediately, I would rather trade the rights to the player in the effort to clear salary.

Just to repeat $10M for Lee may be a bargain... who knows... but I think that same $10m could get a much better bargain basement player after signing two superstars...

I disagree about Nate though. You have to enjoy how much he loves playing and his athleticism, but his lack of control and his affinity for bad shots/passes in clutch situations needs to be addressed before he is given any serious consideration for a 2010 roster spot. Without that control, he is pretty much a team mascot. Because he is undersized, he needs to make better decisions, especially before his feet leave the ground. I think I would rather have a more consistent role-player like Raja Bell in that roster spot at the same cost or less, who will give consistent 3 pt shooting and good defense with good length to close the passing lanes. I mean, winning the dunk competition is cool and seeing Nate putback a rebound on the Celtics is awesome, but how many dunk competitions would you trade for a championship ring? Nate isn't acting like a championship caliber player.

Posted by djsunyc:

imho, if the knicks don't get lebron or wade, then the 2010 plan wasn't necessary...

I would then adopt the 2012 Paul/Howard plan... this would entail signing all of the Harlem Globetrotters to a two-year deal using our 2010 cap space and enjoying the show for two years until CP3 and Superman are available.

Posted by TMS:

Posted by djsunyc:

imho, if the knicks don't get lebron or wade, then the 2010 plan wasn't necessary...

getting Bosh, Amare or Dirk wouldn't have made the 2010 plan necessary?

No. While I like all 3, they weren't what I was sold. It's like being told that you are about to get a Porshe but instead leave the showroom with a Miata. Still a nice affordable car but it ain't a Porshe.

Bosh, Amare and Dirk represent 3 of the best talent at the 4 spot in the league....I'd be happy to get anyone of them....still they are going to need help.

Posted by Pharzeone:

Posted by TMS:

Posted by djsunyc:

imho, if the knicks don't get lebron or wade, then the 2010 plan wasn't necessary...

getting Bosh, Amare or Dirk wouldn't have made the 2010 plan necessary?

No. While I like all 3, they weren't what I was sold.

You mean, the 3 are not what you *chose to buy from the media*

Posted by djsunyc:

imho, if the knicks don't get lebron or wade, then the 2010 plan wasn't necessary...

Can you please outline an alternative......

Posted by djsunyc:

Posted by Uptown:

Posted by djsunyc:

imho, if the knicks don't get lebron or wade, then the 2010 plan wasn't necessary...

Can you please outline an alternative......

my fear...well not exactly fear, but i can see how anybody that comes here in 2010 will be looked upon as the savior. and when that player doesn't deliver, the fanbase will start turning on him/them much like how they turned on ewing. and outside of lebron + wade, i'm not sure anybody else can come in here and turn it around that drastically in 2010. and it will probably take another 2-3 years AFTER that guy is acquired in 2010 to get pieces to put them in a contender category (and most likely w/o walsh as the gm).

it's a plan...and they're sticking to it. so it's best to see it out. but it's not the only plan. isiah had a decent plan, he just botched it up with his own ego, mismanagement and his poor judge of character/talent in his acquisitions.

[Edited by - djsunyc on 01-21-2009 11:30 AM]

The Knicks are bascially going down the Magic path of Grant Hill (Lebron) and T-Mac (Wade).

That move didn't turn out well for the Magic but I will take my chances if I'm the Knicks. It beats the alternative.

Posted by fishmike:

the Magic plan was good. If Hill's ankle didnt end his career they have a contender for a decade with those two guys. I mean if Lebron comes here and blows out his knee in November and becomes Danny Manning part II its not a bad plan its bad luck.

I agree 100% with DJ on the Wade/Lebron point. Bosh is on a decent team playing like .380 basketball. Use what labels you want but he's an all star and not a franchise guy. You can collect talent and trade for all stars. Wade, Lebron, Kobe are a lot harder to trade for so you have to wooo them.

And weren't the Magic really targeting Hill & Duncan?

If we can't get Lebron, then I think we're better off holding off and waiting. 2012 and CP3 & D Howard & whatever pieces we can add in the meantime.

The top FAs will have a lot of choices.
They will consider offer (it will be max anyway), market size, endorsements, the competitiveness of the team to join, the public image of the organization, coaching level, and who knows what else. Teams will not pick and choose, FAs will.
So the only one way to get stars we want (outside having the opportunity) is to create no-bull**** culture, assemble good positive supporting cast, and quality coaching team.
All the rest is naturally in favor of NYC anyway.