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djsunyc
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How I project PER for the upcoming season
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
For the coming NBA season, I've projected the statistics for each player who played at least 500 minutes in the NBA last season (as well as a few who saw substantial playing time in Europe).
You'll see these projections on the pages that rank players by their projected PER (Player Efficiency Rating), and on their individual pages you'll see how their numbers project in the individual categories.
By this point some of you are probably wondering how I created the projections.
It's not, as some suspect, by pulling numbers out of the air. Nor was my secret yet pervasive bias against your favorite team a factor, much as commenters like to feel otherwise.
I base the projections on a tool called similarity scores.
For each player, I use as a comparison the players from the past 20 years who are the most similar, based on age, height and stats over the past three seasons. Some players will have more comparables than others, depending on how unusual they are -- guys with freak heights (Yao Ming, Earl Boykins), freak ages (Dikembe Mutombo) or freak stats (Andrei Kirilenko) will have relatively few, while a more generic player like Al Harrington or Devin Brown could have over a hundred.
From that point, I see what their most similar players did a year later, and project those changes onto the stats of the player being studied. So, for example, the reason that Yao Ming's PER is projected to rise sharply this year is because the most similar players also saw their PERs increase sharply at the same age; similarly, Andre Miller is expected to tank because a number of similar players hit the wall at his age.
Of course, any number of other factors can be relevant to a player's performance -- how hard he trains, for instance, and injuries, coaching, and so on. But consider these numbers a median estimate for what the player might be likely to do this coming season, other things being equal. And then, if other things aren't equal, apply your own logic from there. here's zach's write up: 2006-07 season: Out of the blue, Randolph lost 15 pounds and put together a monster year that made the Blazers surprisingly competitive. Had he been in the other conference, it would certainly have resulted in his first-ever All-Star appearance.
Two years removed from microfracture surgery, Randolph showed up in better shape and used his inside-outside combo to create oodles of shots. He ended up with the top usage rate among power forwards and his average of 26.7 points per 40 minutes was 11th in the league.
His improvement didn't only come in shot attempts, though. Randolph also had a career best 17.6 rebound rate, ranking seventh among power forwards and accounting for his main (some would say only) defensive contribution. He also shot the ball better than he had in the previous three seasons from both the field and the line.
Randolph shot jumpers much less than the previous season, when he routinely floated out to the perimeter; even when he caught the ball high, he often went to the rim. A year earlier 65.8 percent of his shots were close-in; last season that ballooned to 75.1 percent. That's a trade the Blazers gladly accepted -- while Randolph has a respectable outside touch (44.4 percent on long 2-pointers), the basket area is where he does the real damage.
Scouting report: Randolph is a tough cover because he has a wide body but a soft shooting touch, enabling the southpaw to dominate smaller players around the basket or pull bigger ones away from the rim. He's great in the post when he operates on the right block, but he's even better when he catches the ball on the move.
Because he was in better shape, Randolph showed a much more diverse off-the-dribble game last season. He has range out to 20 feet but can go to the basket with either hand; when he goes right, however, he invariably spins back to his left for the shot.
Randolph has gained a rep for selfishness because he rarely passes out of double-teams, and when he does it's often to the wrong player. But his biggest weakness is his defense, or rather the lack of it. He isn't particularly quick or nimble, and he plays with remarkably little enthusiasm on that end of the floor.
2007-08 outlook: Randolph was traded to the Knicks in the offseason, where he faces an interesting adjustment. New York already has a proficient low-block player in Eddy Curry, so Randolph might find himself facing up much more than he did last season. He's skilled enough to get his points from out there, but one has to think there will be some diminishment of his productivity in that role.
Of course, Randolph will be the go-to guy when Curry is on the bench or in foul trouble, something that happens fairly often, so his numbers might not suffer too much. He's 26 and now a couple years removed from microfracture knee surgery, which means the Knicks should be getting the best years of his career. Whether those years will include any attention to defense, not to mention any further scrapes with the law, is still to be determined.
Most similar at age: Gary Trent here's david's lee: 2006-07 season: Lee was a perfect complement for the Knicks' system -- so good, in fact, that he was their best player. Although he relied almost entirely on second shots and feeds from penetrators for his offense, Lee was so productive that his PER ranked seventh among all power forwards. As such, it was fairly baffling that New York wouldn't put him into the starting lineup, but Lee was a strong contender for the Sixth Man award until a late-season calf strain sidelined him.
Though nominally left-handed, Lee is an unbelievable finisher around the basket because he can shoot with either hand. Thanks to those skills, he shot 60.0 percent from the floor; combined with his excellent foul shooting (81.5 percent), Lee had the best true shooting percentage among power forwards and the third-best in all of basketball.
He's also a high activity guy with a great nose for the ball, allowing him to finish second among power forwards in rebound rate and fourth in the league as a whole. Those second shots provided a lot of his shot opportunities, as he rarely shot from the perimeter.
He was a good passer, too, ranking ninth among power forwards in assist ratio, but gave up much of the benefit by ranking 52nd in turnover ratio.
Scouting report: Lee is the quintessential high-efficiency big man, rarely needing the ball but putting away his shot opportunities with clinical precision. He has no post game and the Knicks never call plays for him, but he's incredibly active around the basket thanks to quick feet and good hops. He's also great at grabbing balls in midair and putting them up immediately -- a game-winning tip of an inbounds pass against Charlotte was the most prominent example, but he had many others and can do it with either hand.
Defensively, Lee's best asset is his rebounding. Although he moves well he isn't terribly strong and is not an elite post defender; surprisingly, he's not terribly active from the weak side either. While the Knicks played better with him on the court than off it, this had more to do with his being less slothful than Eddy Curry than anything special Lee did. However, his ability to run the floor does help the transition defense, and his quickness makes him far better on pick-and-roll defense than the Knicks' other bigs.
2007-08 outlook: Lee's role is likely to diminish as the result of the trade for Zach Randolph, which seemingly only leaves 20 minutes or so in the frontcourt for Lee to come off the pine. This is unfortunate, as Lee would make a very effective partner for Randolph because of his weakside rebounding and greater attention to defense.
While this would be considered heresy in New York, the Knicks should really consider starting Lee and making Eddy Curry the 20-minutes-off-the-bench guy. Isiah Thomas would never, ever do this, because he invested so much in trading for Curry in the first place, but if he did he'd end up with a much better team and eliminate the duplication of skills (and weaknesses) in his frontcourt.
Most similar at age: Chris Wilcox |
10/10/2007 4:26 PM
