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Queeniepop
Posts: 20640
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Joined: 12/29/2006
Member: #1233
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2006-07 Recap
Just because the Ringling Brothers aren't in town doesn't mean you can't see a circus at Madison Square Garden. While on the court the Knicks actually resembled a professional basketball team for large stretches of the season, off it they were more screwed up than ever.
In the wake of the disastrous tenure of Larry Brown a season earlier, team president Isiah Thomas moved down to the sidelines and tried to clean up the rubble. However, he didn't make it through a third of the season before becoming embroiled in controversy. In late December his suspicious comments to Denver's Carmelo Anthony just before teammate J.R. Smith was clubbed by Mardy Collins had some wondering if he ordered a "code red," and he was fortunate to avoid suspension. Regardless of Thomas' guilt or innocence, the indefensible actions of Collins and Nate Robinson set off a fight that got both players lengthy suspensions.
More weirdness enveloped the team as the season went on. Steve Francis was ready to be bought out with an alleged bad knee, one that magically healed once Jamal Crawford was pronounced out for the season. Channing Frye regressed badly from a promising rookie season while his backup, David Lee, exploded onto the scene to be the Knicks' most effective player; yet Thomas never appeared to consider changing the lineup. And behind the scenes, a sexual harassment lawsuit against Thomas and the Knicks caused continued embarrassment that lasted through the offseason.
Then there were the strange goings-on with the team's injuries. Crawford was thought to just have a sore ankle and kept playing on it, then found out weeks later it was a stress fracture and he was done for the season. Similarly, Lee was diagnosed with a sprained ankle and listed as day-to-day; then got a second opinion and found out he had a deep bone bruise that would keep him out the rest of the season.
But the one that took the cake was the contract extension team owner James Dolan proudly announced for Thomas --a reward for leading the Knicks to a 28-35 record through 63 games. Apparently Dolan was beaming because New York momentarily had possession of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race; the fact that the Knicks were seven games under .500 with the league's highest payroll didn't appear to be on his radar. At least it gave us the quip of the year, when amidst all the handshakes and smiles our Chad Ford noted that the only thing missing was a "mission accomplished" banner.
Dolan and Thomas' moment in the sun was brief, however, as a rash of late-season injuries left the Knicks well out of the money at 33-49. Lee, Crawford and Quentin Richardson all missed the stretch run, losses which even New York's deep bench couldn't handle.
But the main problem wasn't injuries, it was the same organizational blunders that have plagued this team for half a decade. Start with the decision to give the full midlevel exception to swingman Jared Jeffries, who was a misfit in the Knicks' system and badly needs to relocate to a running, trapping team like he played for in Washington.
Then there were the early-season buyouts for Maurice Taylor and Jalen Rose. Though neither player had value on the court, their expiring contracts could have been used to acquire Allen Iverson or Pau Gasol later in the year. Instead they were set free early on for reasons that never have been made clear.
So in the end Thomas never used Rose, after trading for him in the middle of 2005-06 and getting a first-round pick from the Raptors. Factoring in Rose's salary and the luxury tax, Thomas paid close to $30 million for the 21st pick in the first round; the going rate for picks in that range is $3 million. Leave it to the Knicks to pay 10 times the market value for an asset.
Through it all, Isiah kept smiling and saying the Knicks were making progress. Run-of-the-mill optimists see the glass as half full ... this guy sees the Amazon. At least this time he had a few reasons to back up his outlook. Lee emerged as a force on the glass, especially offensively, making him the perfect antidote to the guards' dribble blindness. Curry had a big season as well, learning to stay out foul trouble long enough for his scoring prowess in the post to be a factor. And Thomas continued his strong drafting, getting huge production off the bench from Renaldo Balkman.
Most Possessions Ending In TOs: 2006-07
TEAM Pct.
Orlando 18.3
New York 18.1
Boston 17.2
Indiana 17.0
Atlanta 17.0
League average 16.4
Offensively, Isiah slowed the Knicks down and focused on pounding the ball into Curry, making New York one of the league's most extreme offensive teams. The Knicks were at the very top or the very bottom in several categories as a result of their offensive strategy -- all those dump-ins produced an incredibly high rate of free throws (fourth in the league in free-throw attempts per field goal attempt), for instance, and the Knicks' overpowering frontcourt provided the league's second best offensive rebound rate.
Unfortunately, those pluses were offset by an equally high rate of turnovers. New York had the league's second-worst turnover rate, giving it away on 18.1 percent of its possessions, and that was why the team only ranked 17th in offensive efficiency despite good numbers in other facets. New York led the league in this category a season earlier, but this time they can't blame it on Larry Brown. Instead, three factors contributed to the rash of turnovers. First was the fact that nobody except Crawford could throw an entry pass -- an absurd number of attempts to feed Curry down low ended with a deflection. Second was Curry himself -- blissfully unaware of double-teams and prone to running over defenders planted in front of him, he had one of the worst turnover ratios in basketball.
But the other factor was the roster itself. Thomas has focused his offense on feeding the frontcourt, but hasn't acquired the perimeter players to provide enough spacing to make it work. The Knicks weren't a good 3-point shooting team, making 34.6 percent of their tries last season, so opposing defenses felt free to send extra defenders to slap at the ball in the post. If New York got rid of the slashers and picked up a couple deep shooters to really complement Curry's game, it could help both the 3-point percentage and the turnover problem.
Fewest Opp. Poss. Ending In TOs: 2006-07
TEAM PCT.
New York 14.5
New Orleans/Oklahoma City 14.6
L.A. Clippers 14.8
Minnesota 15.0
Portland 15.0
League average 16.4
Improving the defense is another key task. While Curry was the focal point of the Knicks' offense, he was often the focal point of the opponent's too. New York was a terrible defensive team, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency, and the frontcourt was a big reason -- opponents either ran Curry ragged on high pick-and-rolls or mercilessly beat on Frye in the low post.
Those two and Lee also failed to protect the basket -- the Knicks were 29th in blocks, sending back only 3.96 percent of opponents' attempts. Moreover, New York was vulnerable to the 3-pointer (37.6 percent, ranking 28th in the league), another classic sign of a team whose big guys aren't getting it done on D.
Finally, turnovers were as big a problem for the defense as they were for the offense. The Knicks were the league's worst team at forcing turnovers, creating miscues on just 14.5 percent of opponent possessions (see chart), so between offense and defense New York had the worst turnover disadvantage in basketball. Turnovers alone put the Knicks at nearly a four-point-per-game disadvantage to its opponents -- a massive hole to try digging out of in the other phases of the game.
Moves
It was very quiet after draft day, as the Knicks didn't sign a single free agent. That bummed out a few columnists who were salivating over the possibilities for this year's midlevel exception disaster, but was a prudent move for a team whose roster already is bursting at the seams. Instead they pulled the big deal for Zach Randolph and called it a summer.
However, New York's wagon is still too full. By rule the Knicks can only keep 15 players, but they have 17 guaranteed contracts. It would seem cutting Jared Jordan is one easy step, but the identity of cut No. 2 -- Malik Rose? Jerome James? Wilson Chandler and Demetris Nichols? -- remains undetermined.
Randolph
• Traded Channing Frye and Steve Francis to Portland for Dan Dickau, Fred Jones and Zach Randolph
You can question many elements of this trade -- Randolph's contract and attitude, how he fits in with Curry, what it means for the defense, etc. What you cannot question is that on talent, this is about as one-sided as it gets. Neither the Knicks nor the Blazers had any use for Francis, who was bought out almost immediately by Portland, while Randolph was an All-Star caliber performer for the Blazers last season.
Jones is a defense-first guy who could help the Knicks as a wing reserve if he can find some daylight in the crowded backcourt.
Chandler
• Drafted Wilson Chandler and Demetris Nichols
Isiah has done extremely well in his past few drafts, but I'd like the Chandler pick better if he didn't replicate so much of what Balkman does.
Pardon me while I digress, but this is a major problem up and down the Knicks' roster. Isiah's eye for talent only seems to include three types of players -- shoot-first guards who don't defend, athletic small forwards who can't shoot, and huge, lumbering post players. This is why Richardson was so valuable to them last season even though he's not a great player -- on this roster, seeing a guy who both defends and makes 3s is like finding a unicorn. At some point one hopes Isiah will trade from his excess and balance things out, but it hasn't happened yet.
Nichols departs from the trend -- he's a long-range shooter who plays small forward. But looking at the roster situation, it appears he can only make the team if Isiah swallows his pride and cuts James.
• Signed Randolph Morris
This technically happened at the end of last season, but since it was so late in the year I threw it in here. Morris played for Kentucky last year, but through a weird loophole in the draft rules was eligible to sign with a team right away once his college season ended. New York nabbed him at a very reasonable price and will see if he can develop behind Curry this season.
• Bought out Dan Dickau, traded for Jared Jordan
These two moves appear to be related. The Knicks sent money to L.A. for Jordan even though he's unlikely to make the team, because it essentially allowed them to buy a roster opening that Dickau can now fill once he clears waivers. Having done that, they could buy out his remaining $3 million for $2.3 million and pocket the difference, a difference that doubles with luxury tax. And who knows, maybe Jordan will even make the team -- he does give the club a pure point guard.
Biggest Strength: Low-Post Scoring
New York was an extreme low-post team last season, so one can only imagine how extreme the Knicks will play now that Randolph is around. Both he and Curry are overwhelming forces on the blocks who crush smaller defenders and require constant double-teams to keep them in check.
Some wonder how they'll mesh offensively since only one of them can play the block at any given time, but this pairing might actually work. Randolph has a feathery touch from 20 feet and can play high while Curry is down low. Theoretically he could also enter the ball to Curry from up high, but Randolph is a notoriously unwilling passer -- another weakness that's replicated up and down the roster.
Behind Randolph and Curry are several other post options. Richardson kills smaller wing players on the blocks, and though he hasn't been asked to do it much in New York it's an option that can be exploited when matchups allow. Morris is another potential post threat; many scouts thought he had first-round talent and developed nicely in his final year at Kentucky. And while Lee hasn't showcased much game on the blocks as of yet, one can envision him being very effective when he catches on the move.
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Biggest Weakness: Interior Defense
People are worried about how Curry and Randolph will mesh on offense, but they're focusing on the wrong side of the court. I'm very interested to see how this combo will work on defense, and I'm afraid the answer is "it won't."
Curry is a horrible defender. He doesn't move his feet well, is slow to react to the weak side, he's lazy on the ball and he's beaten routinely in transition. Yet Randolph might be worse. He has many of the same weaknesses as Curry, primarily because it doesn't appear that he cares.
Having one player like that is survivable, because the other four players can do things to cover for some of the weaknesses. Having both on the court together, however, seems almost masochistic. It's absolutely inconceivable that this team could finish outside the bottom five in defensive efficiency if these two are in the starting lineup all season; New York has a great chance to finish last in both blocks and fast-break points allowed.
I'm not sure the bench offers much for solutions. Lee is the best option, not because he's anything great but because he's not nearly as pathetic as the other two. However, he might not play much. Although starting him and bringing Curry off the bench makes all kinds of sense, there's no way Isiah makes Curry a reserve after trading two high lottery picks to get him and pontificating numerous times on his rising stardom.
Beyond Lee all they have are more plodders -- Morris, Rose and the comically ineffective James. The Knicks could also consider playing small and using Balkman at power forward, but again it requires ditching the Curry-Randolph pairing they seem so intent on using.
Outlook
The Knicks won't be terrible, simply because Randolph gives them such an offensive force that it should make up for all the nights he mails it in on defense (the Vegas over/under is 81.5). Otherwise, it's hard to see how this outfit is much of an improvement on last season's lottery team. Youngsters like Balkman and Robinson might make a bigger impact with more minutes, but at the same time Richardson -- in some ways their most important player -- is coming off serious back surgery and point guard Stephon Marbury is fading as he gets into his 30s.
Moreover, this roster still fits together poorly. New York doesn't have the shooters to protect its post players offensively, nor does it have an interior defensive ace to control the paint on that end. The one hope is that after years of spending freely and getting little return, Thomas' drafts have given the Knicks a dollop of young talent. From here it's possible they could trade themselves into having a real basketball team.
But hasn't that always been the problem? Isiah can't bring himself to pull off the sensible, no-nonsense trade when a flashier, high-profile deal can get him on the front page instead. That's how he ended up with all these overrated shoot-first guards in the first place. And when it's all said and done, Isiah and his well-paid minions again will have plenty of free time to count their money this spring.
Prediction: 38-44, 4th in Atlantic, 11th in Eastern Conference
[Edited by - queeniepop on 10-03-2007 09:43 AM]
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