Texas forward Kevin Durant is expected to declare for the NBA today, ending weeks of hand-wringing by NBA executives who feared he might pull a Joakim Noah and return to Texas for his sophomore season.



Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images
Kevin Durant's game is NBA ready, but he may not be ready for the NBA lifestyle.
According to the sources I've spoken with, Durant actually wanted to return to Texas, mostly because of lifestyle and maturity issues. But once it became clear that Nike was going to offer him upward of $20 million in endorsements to go along with that guaranteed NBA contract, the pros of going pro outweighed the merits of returning to school.

Now, if Greg Oden will declare soon, NBA execs like Jerry West and Danny Ainge can sleep better at night. And at that point we can rekindle the best debate in sports this year -- who's a better NBA prospect, Durant or Oden?

For most of the past 18 months, the conventional wisdom was that Oden was a no-brainer as the No. 1 pick. Although Durant's spectacular play this season has reshaped that thinking among the media and fans, very few NBA GMs have changed their minds.

Oden's dominant performance in the NCAA title game versus Florida seemed to put the question to rest for NBA folks. Anytime an athletic, 7-foot freshman can put up 25 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks against the best front line in college basketball, you take him -- that's the conventional wisdom in NBA circles.

But thanks to the amazing talents of Durant, there are good arguments to be made against the conventional wisdom this year. In fact, after spending the weekend in Memphis probing some of the best minds in the NBA scouting universe, I see at least five reasons it might be wise to take Kevin Durant at No. 1.


1. He's a better basketball player
All the emphasis on Oden's defense tends to obscure his relative rawness on the offensive end. Naturally, a player of Oden's size should have the ability to rebound, block and alter shots.

But what Durant does on the offensive end is arguably a much rarer, more valuable commodity.

Durant's a unique basketball talent who can get his shot off from anywhere. No defense we've seen will stop him.

In the NBA, the defensive game plan is always to take away what a player does best and make him move on to Plan B. But Durant doesn't need a Plan B because every option is Plan A in quality.

If you crowd him on the perimeter, he'll take you to the basket. If you lay off, he'll nail a jumper. If you put a smaller, quicker defender on him, he'll go down to the block. If you put a big guy on him, Durant will fly by him.

Add Durant's versatility -- passing, rebounding, ability to play and defend multiple positions -- and there's no question Durant has Oden beat by a mile in skill level.

2. He has the potential to be a lockdown defender, too
Much of the argument against Durant has been that he seems to lose interest on the defensive end of the floor. Although that was true some of the time, don't forget that Durant was named to the All-Big 12 Defensive Team this year.

Durant does several things right on the defensive end.

Let's start with his work on the boards, where Durant, despite not having Oden's height or physique, outrebounded Oden this season, 11.1 to 9.6.

Durant also proved to be a strong shot-blocker (averaging almost two blocks per game) and racked up an impressive 1.9 steals per game compared with Oden's 0.6.

With a little added strength and coaching, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that Durant could be a Kevin Garnett-type defender in the pros.



Jamie Squire/Getty Images
KD posters could one day grace the rooms of many youngsters.
3. He has the intangibles to be a superstar
Focusing solely on physical attributes and skills obscures a greater truth about Durant: He plays every game with a ferocity and passion that rivals that of Kobe, KG and, yes, even Michael Jordan.

Durant has the demeanor of a stone-cold killer when he gets on the basketball floor. He wants to drop 40 points on every opponent. He's unafraid to take the last shot or put his teammates on his back.

And his competitiveness is infectious. He has proved, as an 18-year-old freshman, to be a great leader on the floor.

Said one respected GM, "The best player on your team sets the tone for everyone else. If he's laid-back, your team will take that persona on. If he's aggressive and driven, your team will be too unless you really have a coach with a huge personality that can overcome that. I think Durant's ability to lead and the passion with which he plays the game are his most underrated strengths."

4. Not everyone needs a center
The scarcity of truly dominant big men in the league has pushed most GMs into the Oden camp. How can you pass on a center like Oden if you have a gaping hole in the middle?

Guys like Oden come along barely once every decade. He immediately would rival Yao Ming as the most talented big man in the NBA.

That seems to be the big argument driving the debate because centers are seen as scarce and versatile small forwards are seen as relatively plentiful. Therefore, Oden -- even if he isn't quite as good as Durant -- is considered more valuable.

A couple of points, however:

First of all, it's not necessarily true that there are more good small forwards than centers in the league right now, as discussed earlier in my blog.

Second, not every team in the lottery needs a center more than it needs a player like Durant.

Currently, I think two of the five worst teams in the league would take Durant No. 1: Milwaukee and Charlotte. Both teams have a good, young starting center (Andrew Bogut and Emeka Okafor) and a big hole at the 3 spot. I also think Boston would seriously consider Durant.

5. He might be the next Michael Jordan
I know it's blasphemy to compare anyone to Michael Jordan. We learn this every time someone compares Kobe Bryant to MJ.

But I think Durant is the guy with the best chance of duplicating Jordan's influence on and off the court.

At his size and with his unique skill set, he's capable of doing things no one in the NBA is able to do. He's driven. He's relentless. And some folks (including those at Nike) believe he has the potential to be the MJ-style face of the game in ways LeBron, Kobe and others have not quite done.

The last time we had a similar draft dilemma was in 1984, when everyone believed that Hakeem Olajuwon, not Jordan, was the best prospect. No one can fault the Rockets for taking Olajuwon No. 1 -- he won two NBA titles and is considered one of the five greatest centers of all time.

But MJ brought six titles home to the Bulls and is considered the greatest ever to play the game.

So, which one would you take if you had the chance to redo the draft?

Well... on top of everything, he's been listed as having a 7'4" or 7'5" wingspan. It's the same asset that makes Elton Brand deceptively impressive as a rebounding/shotblocker. You just don't expect his reach to extend quite that far.

Durant sounds like a fabulous all-around talent. There's a major dearth of options at center in the NBA right now - so if you have the #1 overall pick, you could trade down to #2 and get a little extra along the way.

If my team needs a center, I am going with Oden no doubt, I don't care how much Durant can score. Oden is going to be dominate on a Yao Ming and Shaq type level. His offense is raw, but I see signs that he can score effectively, and he is easily going to become no worse than second best defensive center in the league. Like the article says, if the Bucks or Bobcats get the pick, they might pass but even the bobcats should take him b/c Okafor is really a PF. Imagine a defensive frontline of Wallace, Okafor, and Oden. No team would be able to score on them.

Wow, I'm actually in a position to defend SAR. WTF, I hate that guy. Led the league in getting his shot blocked something like 5 out of 6 years and didn't play much defense.

BUT... he played more defense than Eddy and rebounded, and he didn't have good players around him for most of his career. I would probably take SAR over Eddy and that's f'n scary. :(

Posted by franco12:

in curry's defense- I don't think opposing teams ever collapsed on SAR like they have on Curry.

That's because it was much less likely to be a turnover when collapsing on SAR and more likely to be an assist to another teammate.

[Edited by - bonn1997 on 04-10-2007 4:55 PM]

Posted by Solace:

Wow, I'm actually in a position to defend SAR. WTF, I hate that guy. Led the league in getting his shot blocked something like 5 out of 6 years and didn't play much defense.

BUT... he played more defense than Eddy and rebounded, and he didn't have good players around him for most of his career. I would probably take SAR over Eddy and that's f'n scary. :(

It's really depressing. I mean hasn't Reef been considered amongst the biggest loser in basketball?

I'd say a double team on Curry does help the team. Maybe this particular team isn't able to take advantage of it, but any team that has a player that is focused upon defensively has an advantage.

When it comes to scoring the total isn't the whole story. There's the way the points are achieved and the efficiency as well. In terms of a team concept the fact that teams sag in to slow down Curry is a significant advantage if you have the players to take advantage of it.

On the Knicks the best 3's come from Q, but he hasn't been able to stay on the floor. Tho he shoots a very nice 37% from 3, he's only taken 258 on the season.

Then you have Jamal who isn't a high % shooter, only shooting 32% from 3, so that takes away a little of his effectiveness. He took the 2nd most 3's a likely would've been near the top if he stayed healthy.

You also have steph who took a LOT of 3's and at least has a decent % at 35%, still you really don't want him taking as many as he's taken. He made 123 of 345 threes.

Nate can shoot very well from 3, but his overall game hasn't allowed him to be on the floor enough to take advantage of his good shooting. He's also at 37% like Q, but he only has taken 192 on the season.

To me it's crystal clear that we need to add a couple of guys who can consistently hit from 3. That would allow us to always have a deep threat on the floor and that should open up things for Curry or give us more high % shots from the perimeter. In addition we need for those guys to be of good size and able to play some D. We can't keep allowing teams to shoot 37% from 3 against us. So we need to shoot better from 3 and defend better against the 3.

That would help to take advantage of what Curry does for us inside.

[Edited by - nixluva on 04-10-2007 10:34 AM]

You guys are the worst, really.

And Durant is too Skinny, he is going to take a pounding.

[Edited by - anji on 04-10-2007 6:02 PM]