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how many games would a team like this win?
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fishmike
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9/28/2006  7:41 AM

A team with a $100mm payroll of active players (doesnt include retired or bought out players)
A team that will feature a backcourt of 2 guards in their prime who have combined for 5 all star appearances
A team featuring one of the up and coming big men in the league with 5 years of NBA experience
A team with size and length
A veteran team that also has a young and talented back end of the rotation

Sure sounds like a 48-50 win team to me. I just wonder why some of the guys that credit all the failures to Larry are predicting 35 and 38 win seasons.

oohah, crzy, et all... shouldnt anything less than 45+ and the 2nd round be a pretty big failure?
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
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jazz74
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9/28/2006  8:10 AM
but it is not about talent and payroll. you of all people should know that, fish. you have watched basketball for years and have seen some talented teams do nothing. example, portland trailblazers from 99-04. that was a team brimming with talent from scottie pippen, raheed wallace arvetis sabonis, etc. you would be hard pressed to find a weakness inany position and sometimes when i watched them i would say, "oh, they have him too?!" however they were either an 8th seed knockout or in the lottery. all because of the makeup of the team. no balance. no one wanted to be the role player so they suffered. this looks like our case without the arrest charges. reading different magazines, no one said that the knicks are devoid of talent. they have plenty in avery position. however there are two things to overcome: chemistry issue and the one thing that i thought was very important: losing mentality. we have all seen it. atlanta and golden state has suffered with it for years. it is a hard thing to break. teams start to get into losing like habits. i remember when jeff van gundy said that when derek harper came, a class gut and player, they had to break him out of losing habits. well, this is a team that pretty much all of them suffer from that mentality. i hope isiah can establish a winning mentality next month because with the hard schedule in november ( i am convince that the nba office hates the knicks) we need every advantage.
fishmike
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9/28/2006  9:38 AM
those Portland teams won every year... they just didnt win a title. I'm not talking about the Knicks winning the East, just about getting into the playoffs and competing there and either getting to the 2nd round or losing against a tough team like the Bulls did last year.

In 8 years from 95-2002 the Blazers won 44,49,46,35 (.700 win% in lockout year), 59,50,49 and 50 wins. Thats averaging 50 over those 8 years. Have the Knicks sniffed anything like that? Thats good example because those guys all hated each other. They had bad chemistry, a solid coach and a lucrative payroll. If they proved anything its that talent alone can win you 50 games.

If this team has half the talent that guys around here like to think why isnt 50 wins a fair bar to set?

Frye, Lee and Nate are the only "young" guys sniffing rotation minutes. JJ, JJ, Crawford, Curry, Franbury, Jalen, Q all have 5 years plus NBA exp.

This is a veteran team
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
franco12
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9/28/2006  9:52 AM
fish- you bring up an excellent point- this team should be in that area of wins- that would be a fair measure and if they aren't there, the final analysis is probably going to boil down to isiah buying terrible assets (JJ, Francis, Marbury, Curry) and Marbury being a team cancer.

There will be no doubt that Marbury is a diva cry baby.

And I assume your $100m includes Mo T & Jalen- so even if you take them out, its still $70m-80m+ and that amount and 'talent' should still get you those kinds of wins.

I still think if you see improvement in chemistry, team play and some results - 40 wins +-4, we should be happy.
Panos
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9/28/2006  10:00 AM
fish, I agree.
If they don't make it to the playoffs and at least compete and battle in the first round, no excuses will be accepted. Isiah will have had his 3 years here, had
free reign to spend as much as he liked, and even installed a like-minded coach -- himself.
Even injury is not an excuse this year. Why not?

If Marbury goes down, Francis can step in. Francis goes down, JC steps in, etc. We have so much depth at guard that it won't matter.

If JJ2 goes down, well I don't expect him to have such a big impact anyway,
JRose, Balkman and Q can cover.

If Frye goes down, Lee can step in.

If Curry goes down, its Isiah's own damn fault for not having a backup, because
a) he was the one that signed that worthless pig, JJ, and b) he let Jackie Blue go
this summer fully aware that he was our best servicable backup center.

Bottom line -- this is it for Isiah. Put up or ride into the sunset.

[Edited by - panos on 09-28-2006 10:01 AM]
arkrud
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9/28/2006  10:47 AM
Posted by fishmike:


A team with a $100mm payroll of active players (doesnt include retired or bought out players)
A team that will feature a backcourt of 2 guards in their prime who have combined for 5 all star appearances
A team featuring one of the up and coming big men in the league with 5 years of NBA experience
A team with size and length
A veteran team that also has a young and talented back end of the rotation

Sure sounds like a 48-50 win team to me. I just wonder why some of the guys that credit all the failures to Larry are predicting 35 and 38 win seasons.

oohah, crzy, et all... shouldnt anything less than 45+ and the 2nd round be a pretty big failure?

You mentioned all the positives but never mention the flaws of each player we have.
I will not going to repeat it as was mentioned million times on this forum.
And unfortunately our players have the flows in element which are major for their positions and role on the team.
We have stars which are not leaders, SG who cannot shoot, PG who cannot pass, SG who cannot defend, PF who has no post game, and centers who cannot rebound, defend, and block shots. That's why most of our players have questionable value around the NBA and the team results are what they are.
If you have a talent in math but working in the barber shop this is not helping much to do a good job.
The reality is a clear proof of incompetence of the GM and scouting stuff and luck of passion for the team and the Game from owners and MSG/Cablevision officials.













"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
oohah
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9/28/2006  11:10 AM
oohah, crzy, et all... shouldnt anything less than 45+ and the 2nd round be a pretty big failure?

Only if you have not been watching ths team for the past 5 years.

You have to realize that this team was a new squad last year, and should have gotten the 38-44 doldrums out of their system last season. Working on their chemistry, developing cohesion, getting the rookies consistent playing time and experience, developinga game plan and identity, etc.

You seem to think they can skip all that because they are talented. Or maybe you don't think the aspects I just listed are important, or are not even real?

Sorry fish, it only works the way you described in goading-sarcasm world.

oohah



Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
Bippity10
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9/28/2006  11:22 AM
So ooh aah if this team wins 32 games it will be because of prior seasons????

The point Fish makes to me is obvious. It is pointing out the flaws of the team clear as day. We have all the talent in the world and yet are hoping for mediocre results. Even the optimists are hoping for mediocre results. This is not optimism. This is understanding the roster that we have put together. We have 50 win talent but because of their own inability to function as a team and a lack of leadership then mediocrity has come what we expect(check out my signature). We have begun to settle. IT's okay for our team to underacheive. We even call ourselves optimists when we predict underachievement. Can anyone dispute my theory of settling is in full effect.

My question is if we are building a young team. Why are we waiting. Why are we still placing the team in the hands of our older backcourt. If they lead this is fine. But if they fail to be leaders why wait to move on? Start a full rebuild. No more vets to save jobs.
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Bippity10
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9/28/2006  11:24 AM
IF we win 50 games it's "I told you so". If we win 32 games it's because LB didn't give us a chance to win 38 games last year. Possibly the most "interesting" theory I've ever heard.
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fishmike
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9/28/2006  11:29 AM
oohah, good teams with the talent you think this team has dont take years to find cohesion... months maybe. I guess the way Isiah is constantly making trades you have that built in excuse all the time for the players to continue failing and its all ok.

Where's the sarcasm?

Akrud, I'm well aware of the team's numberous flaws. Its the GM that isnt aware of them and thats the problem.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
oohah
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9/28/2006  11:39 AM
oohah, good teams with the talent you think this team has dont take years to find cohesion... months maybe.

First of all, that's total bs. But second, let's say it does take a few months. That means they have to take their lumps during that time. That probably menas less than 45 wins.

But that's okay with me. I am not applying a totally new and ridiculous standard because I don't like Isiah. I am expecting this team to improve to mediocre respectability and then we will take it from there.

Why don't you drop the cynical view and jump on the reality train with me?
I guess the way Isiah is constantly making trades you have that built in excuse all the time for the players to continue failing and its all ok.

Where's the sarcasm?


??? I don't follow you. I am just looking at the situation and making my prediction. You've already stated that you expect the team to be bad, I expect them to be okay, but not great.

That is my assessment. If the team is worse than okay (around 38 wins) I don't think Isiah did a good job, and the players have some explaining to do as well.

I have explained why in much detail. You have granted me my point when you stated that it may take a few months for the team to come together.

I don't need to hedge. I don't make excuses when I am wrong. I am very willing to hang my ass out there and speak my mind.

Join me please.

oohah


Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
Bippity10
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9/28/2006  11:55 AM
Posted by oohah:
oohah, good teams with the talent you think this team has dont take years to find cohesion... months maybe.



But that's okay with me. I am not applying a totally new and ridiculous standard because I don't like Isiah. I am expecting this team to improve to mediocre respectability and then we will take it from there.



Enough of this nonsense. I have documented again and again that most of us are within the same ballpark when it comes to wins predicted. This is such a fallacy that some are predicting way more than others. We all are predicting mediocrity.

But you are missing the point of the post. The point is that we assume that we have 50 win talent but we are all still just prying for a .500 record and some playoffs. This should point out the flaws that we have. Flaws that we are all aware of and admitting and it's guiding all of us in our predictions. The disconnect is that most on the board say we have flaws and that is why we will be mediocre. The other set says we are great and don't have flaws but we will be mediocre because we haven't experienced mediocrity yet(because LB wouldn't let us). And we have to experience mediocrity first before we can be better. Nonsense!!! If you fix the flaws and focus on team first players instead of building around guys that are worried about themselves you will skip right by mediocrity.



[/quote]



[Edited by - bippity10 on 09-28-2006 11:56 AM]
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fishmike
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9/28/2006  11:57 AM
the reality train... thats funny man.

Look man, I'm open to new things, and when I see some I will be happy sip your kool aid, I really will be. But I'm jaded, and talk of how great things are "going" to be carries no weight. Seeing is believing. When I see that Curry and Jerome have come into camp in shape I will consider buying one of your tickets.

If Isiah can make it through a trade deadline without doing something totally stupid I might even come on board. If we can make it through November without guys crying about minutes it will be a miracle. Thats the reality I see.

I think that light at the end of the tunnel you see is your reality train speeding towards you about to turn you into pulpy red kool aid.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
oohah
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9/28/2006  12:01 PM
Posted by fishmike:

the reality train... thats funny man.

Look man, I'm open to new things, and when I see some I will be happy sip your kool aid, I really will be. But I'm jaded, and talk of how great things are "going" to be carries no weight. Seeing is believing. When I see that Curry and Jerome have come into camp in shape I will consider buying one of your tickets.

If Isiah can make it through a trade deadline without doing something totally stupid I might even come on board. If we can make it through November without guys crying about minutes it will be a miracle. Thats the reality I see.

I think that light at the end of the tunnel you see is your reality train speeding towards you about to turn you into pulpy red kool aid.


It's funny that you characterize me as a kool-aid drinker, when I am predicting normal steps of improvement for the team, while you declare that nothingless than doubling last year's win total is acceptable. Never have I said how great things are. Never.

While I am definitely not drinking kool-aid (On this one), you have gone to the other extreme.

The reality train stops in the middle platform. I'll check you out there.

oohah

Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
Bippity10
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9/28/2006  12:19 PM
Posted by oohah:
Posted by fishmike:

the reality train... thats funny man.

Look man, I'm open to new things, and when I see some I will be happy sip your kool aid, I really will be. But I'm jaded, and talk of how great things are "going" to be carries no weight. Seeing is believing. When I see that Curry and Jerome have come into camp in shape I will consider buying one of your tickets.

If Isiah can make it through a trade deadline without doing something totally stupid I might even come on board. If we can make it through November without guys crying about minutes it will be a miracle. Thats the reality I see.

I think that light at the end of the tunnel you see is your reality train speeding towards you about to turn you into pulpy red kool aid.


It's funny that you characterize me as a kool-aid drinker, when I am predicting normal steps of improvement for the team, while you declare that nothingless than doubling last year's win total is acceptable. Never have I said how great things are. Never.

While I am definitely not drinking kool-aid (On this one), you have gone to the other extreme.

The reality train stops in the middle platform. I'll check you out there.

oohah

Who's saying that nothing less than doubling the win total is acceptable. Ooh ahh I think you are missing the point entirely. Noone is saying that. What we are saying is that the fact that we have 50 win talent and yet are hoping for 35-40 wins just goes to show how flawed we are. We are all willing to accept 50 win talent to win 35-40 games. We are on the same page with you. We will actually be satisfied with 35-40 wins and consider it normal. Some people are doing that and calling themselves optimists???? What does that say about the situation here??? That is the point. We are a talented team. We have everything Fish mentioned in the original post. If you gave a stranger off the street Fish's post without saying what team it is or giving names they would predict 45-50 wins. Yet we are all going to be satisfied with less. That just goes to show why the "pessimsists" are so "pessimistic". It's time to rid the roster of guys that have made us accept underachievement and build a team of players were a natural progression from 35-40-45-50 wins actually fits and makes sense.
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fishmike
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9/28/2006  1:30 PM
Posted by oohah:
Posted by fishmike:

the reality train... thats funny man.

Look man, I'm open to new things, and when I see some I will be happy sip your kool aid, I really will be. But I'm jaded, and talk of how great things are "going" to be carries no weight. Seeing is believing. When I see that Curry and Jerome have come into camp in shape I will consider buying one of your tickets.

If Isiah can make it through a trade deadline without doing something totally stupid I might even come on board. If we can make it through November without guys crying about minutes it will be a miracle. Thats the reality I see.

I think that light at the end of the tunnel you see is your reality train speeding towards you about to turn you into pulpy red kool aid.


It's funny that you characterize me as a kool-aid drinker, when I am predicting normal steps of improvement for the team, while you declare that nothingless than doubling last year's win total is acceptable. Never have I said how great things are. Never.

While I am definitely not drinking kool-aid (On this one), you have gone to the other extreme.

The reality train stops in the middle platform. I'll check you out there.

oohah
whats the extreme? I say we have sucked before ISiah got here. That he made the situation worse and that we will continue to suck until a major change in philosophy takes place. Which about that is extreme? This organization doesnt need a tweeking, it needs a total do-over. What has our GM ever done that tells he's capable of that.

Thinking Frye is "threatening" to be an all star is kool aid material. Be happy he's a promising young player. To bad he's set up to fail here.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
franco12
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9/28/2006  1:58 PM
Here is one powerful argument against fishs post

Team USA this summer was loaded with talent and should have won it all.

Did they? No.

Does that mean Wade, Lebron and Carmelo are bad players, should be 'traded away' before the olympics.

Extreme example? Maybe giving the best players in the game just a short period of time to adjust to one another is different than giving some good players a season to learn one another, and suffer through the trials that was LB- record setting starting line ups, anuchagate and playing in NYC.
Bippity10
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9/28/2006  2:08 PM
Posted by franco12:

Here is one powerful argument against fishs post

Team USA this summer was loaded with talent and should have won it all.

Did they? No.

Does that mean Wade, Lebron and Carmelo are bad players, should be 'traded away' before the olympics.

Extreme example? Maybe giving the best players in the game just a short period of time to adjust to one another is different than giving some good players a season to learn one another, and suffer through the trials that was LB- record setting starting line ups, anuchagate and playing in NYC.


I think people have a different opinions of Wade, Lebron and Carmelo and the leadership associated with the US team as opposed to ours. It's not a 1 to 1 relationship. If the guys here showed a willingness to listen, lead and not constantly implode than I think fans would be more on board. You don't get the benefit of the doubt until you earn it. Our players want it before they earn it and that's just not how the world works. Lebron, carmelo and Wade have earned this. Stephon, Curry and Stevie have not. As a rational person you can at least understand this point of view. No?
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arkrud
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9/28/2006  3:48 PM
The TALENT issue is coming over and over again.
The SUCCESS in any individual sport is coming when TALENT is coming together with HARD WORK
An in team sport this also should be backed up by COMRADERY, PASSION, and GREAT COUCHING to make any team successful.

The TALENT is the gift of god and it is frustrating to see how it is wasted in Knicks organization in unbelievable proportions.

Dolan, IT, and company have enough money to buy the best TALENT and even GREAT COUCHING, but some things you cannot buy for any money in the world. You need to build GREATNESS and earn it.
They have no idea how to build greatness and frankly they are not deserve it.
People like Dolan, Mills, and IT will never bring GREAT players like KG, Nesh, Dunkin, Shaq, Dirk in NY.
You cannot have Lions and Monkeys in the teh team. So we have just monkeys.



"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
TemujinKnick
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9/28/2006  5:03 PM
I've said it before and I'll say it again. This is a 46+ win team. This is a team that should win in the first round of the playoffs. I think we are going to do it. If we do anything less, I'll join the fire Isiah bandwagon then. In the meantime I'm excited about the upcoming season and just want the damn thing to start already.
how many games would a team like this win?

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