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knick rooks' PT justified?
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tomverve
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7/18/2006  12:39 AM
Not to beat this into the ground-- just thought this info was interesting.

Channing Frye:
24.4 MPG, 18.1 PER

averages for all rookies within 3 mpg of Frye (21.4 - 27.4 mpg), w/ at least 60 games played:
23.4 MPG, 13.1 PER



Nate Robinson:
21.4 MPG, 12.6 PER

averages for all rookies within 3 mpg of Nate (18.4 - 24.4 mpg), w/ at least 60 games played:
20.8 MPG, 11.8 PER



David Lee:
16.8 MPG, 15.4 PER

averages for all rookies within 3 mpg of Lee (13.8 - 19.8 mpg), w/ at least 60 games played:
17.3 MPG, 11.2 PER


While this is a simplistic analysis, it's useful for getting a pulse on how our rooks' PT-to-performance ratio compared to other rooks who got similar PT. Nate basically fit the PT-to-performance ratio of other rookies within his MPG range. But both Frye and Lee had *much* better performances, at least statistically, than did other rookies within their respective MPG ranges. This suggests that both Frye and Lee were significantly undervalued, playing-time wise, relative to their peers. In short, going by the standard set by NBA coaches around the league, Frye and Lee both deserved more PT than they got.

(Of course, a more complete analysis should take into account rookies' production in comparison with their veteran teammates-- a hotshot rookie might not get as much PT as he would otherwise if he were backing up an All-Star, for example. But I take it I don't need to do the work to show that neither Frye nor Lee should have had any real significant roadblocks to playing time in the form of great teammates at the forward slots who simply commanded court time in their place.)
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nyk4ever
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7/18/2006  12:45 AM
Very interesting Tom. I still think that the rookies were played enough. You shouldn't be handed anything and you have to work for your minutes, especially under a coach like Brown. Frye playing 23+ minutes, Lee playing 16+ and Nate playing 20+ is more than most rookies played last year. Also, remember that Lee and Frye were eating each others minutes since they play the same position atleast until Frye got hurt.

[Edited by - nyk4ever on 07-18-2006 12:57 AM]
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tomverve
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7/18/2006  12:47 AM
By the way, none of the 4 rookies within Frye's MPG range came close to sniffing his PER. Of the 9 rookies within Lee's MPG range, only two posted comparable PERs-- Sean May and Ike Diogu-- and both of those guys missed substantial time due to injury. Those injuries might have factored into their relatively low MPG as well-- not to mention the high quality of their PF-playing teammates (Okafor, Murphy).
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nixluva
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7/18/2006  12:49 AM
Well its definitely something that would go to support my belief that these guys should've gotten a bigger role last year. I like the young players on this team. They came in with a positive attitude and they play like a team. You could see it from day one last year that these guys had something special. I'm so looking forward to watching more of them this year.
oohah
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7/18/2006  12:52 AM
While this is a simplistic analysis, it's useful for getting a pulse on how our rooks' PT-to-performance ratio compared to other rooks who got similar PT. Nate basically fit the PT-to-performance ratio of other rookies within his MPG range. But both Frye and Lee had *much* better performances, at least statistically, than did other rookies within their respective MPG ranges. This suggests that both Frye and Lee were significantly undervalued, playing-time wise, relative to their peers. In short, going by the standard set by NBA coaches around the league, Frye and Lee both deserved more PT than they got.

(Of course, a more complete analysis should take into account rookies' production in comparison with their veteran teammates-- a hotshot rookie might not get as much PT as he would otherwise if he were backing up an All-Star, for example. But I take it I don't need to do the work to show that neither Frye nor Lee should have had any real significant roadblocks to playing time in the form of great teammates at the forward slots who simply commanded court time in their place.)

I'm totally with you on this one TV. What I'd like to see in addition to average MPG is total minutes played. Of course Channing Frye would be further down the list because of his injury, but I think it would be the most interesting in Lee's case.

Any chance you can turn that information up?

oohah

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tomverve
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7/18/2006  1:07 AM
I'm not sure total minutes would be the best thing to look at, because then you're introducing the confound of number of games played. And different players miss games for different reasons (broadly, either because of injury-- "we would've liked to get this guy more total minutes but we couldn't"-- or DNP-CD-- "we could've given this guy more total minutes but we didn't want to").

I won't do a total regrouping by total minutes played, but for the groups defined above:

Frye: 1588 total minutes played (MP)
rookies w/in Frye's MPG range: 1653 MP (on average)

Robinson: 1543 MP
rookies w/in Nate's MPG range: 1418 MP (on average)

Lee: 1128 MP
rookies w/in Lee's MPG range: 1003 MP (on average)


By the way, made a mistake for Lee's group-- should have excluded May and also Monta Ellis on account of too few games played. But the numbers still shake out more or less the same (17.1 MPG, 10.7 PER).
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oohah
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7/18/2006  1:18 AM
I'm not sure total minutes would be the best thing to look at, because then you're introducing the confound of number of games played. And different players miss games for different reasons (broadly, either because of injury-- "we would've liked to get this guy more total minutes but we couldn't"-- or DNP-CD-- "we could've given this guy more total minutes but we didn't want to").

The reason I think TMP is interesting is that it does take into account DNP CD's, which I believe MPG does not. A stat guru like yourself can take MPG and multiply that by games missed by injury, add that to TMP and come up with the RMI (Rookie Minutes Index).

Shouldn't take but 5 minutes for a statistician of your caliber.

Righto!

oohah



[Edited by - oohah on 07-18-2006 01:20 AM]
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joec32033
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7/18/2006  5:40 AM
Posted by tomverve:

I'm not sure total minutes would be the best thing to look at, because then you're introducing the confound of number of games played. And different players miss games for different reasons (broadly, either because of injury-- "we would've liked to get this guy more total minutes but we couldn't"-- or DNP-CD-- "we could've given this guy more total minutes but we didn't want to").

I won't do a total regrouping by total minutes played, but for the groups defined above:

Frye: 1588 total minutes played (MP)
rookies w/in Frye's MPG range: 1653 MP (on average)

Robinson: 1543 MP
rookies w/in Nate's MPG range: 1418 MP (on average)

Lee: 1128 MP
rookies w/in Lee's MPG range: 1003 MP (on average)


By the way, made a mistake for Lee's group-- should have excluded May and also Monta Ellis on account of too few games played. But the numbers still shake out more or less the same (17.1 MPG, 10.7 PER).


Minutes played is a misleading stat for Frye because of the injuries he had at the end of the year, IMO.
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franco12
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7/18/2006  7:49 AM
Posted by joec32033:
Posted by tomverve:

I'm not sure total minutes would be the best thing to look at, because then you're introducing the confound of number of games played. And different players miss games for different reasons (broadly, either because of injury-- "we would've liked to get this guy more total minutes but we couldn't"-- or DNP-CD-- "we could've given this guy more total minutes but we didn't want to").

I won't do a total regrouping by total minutes played, but for the groups defined above:

Frye: 1588 total minutes played (MP)
rookies w/in Frye's MPG range: 1653 MP (on average)

Robinson: 1543 MP
rookies w/in Nate's MPG range: 1418 MP (on average)

Lee: 1128 MP
rookies w/in Lee's MPG range: 1003 MP (on average)


By the way, made a mistake for Lee's group-- should have excluded May and also Monta Ellis on account of too few games played. But the numbers still shake out more or less the same (17.1 MPG, 10.7 PER).


Minutes played is a misleading stat for Frye because of the injuries he had at the end of the year, IMO.


Also Frye's mpg and other numbers are misleading since Brown stopped playing him in the second half.

I'd be curious as to how many minutes they should have played based on PER as compared to both other rookies and other players.
joec32033
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7/18/2006  8:37 AM
For some leaderboards on different measures, you'll find:
[Minimum 15% of team minutes played]

PER
23.8 - Paul
19.0 - Frye
18.3 - Villaneuva
16.1 - Bogut
15.8 - Lee

Opp Production
10.7 - Garcia
14.0 - Stoudamire
14.1 - Felton
15.0 - Gomes
15.5 - Frye, Jack

PER Difference
+7.5 - Paul
+3.5 - Frye
+0.9 - Villaneuva
+0.6 - Gomes
+0.5 - Garcia

On Court +/- per 48 minutes
+1.0 - Gomes
+0.7 - Garcia
-0.1 - Head
-0.3 - Villaneuva
-0.8 - Frye, Bogut

On/Off Net +/-
+10.2 - Frye
+6.4 - Robinson
+4.6 - Villaneuva
+3.9 - Felton
+3.3 - Gomes

So is Chris Paul the runaway rookie of the year? You could argue that Channing Frye has the better Roland Rating to this point, but we like to take into account the playing time, and if you multiply the Min% by the Roland Rating, it looks like this:

+3.0 - Chris Paul
+2.7 - Channing Frye
+1.1 - Charlie Villaneuva
+0.5 - Raymond Felton
+0.3 - Ryan Gomes

Steal of the draft to this point? That would appear to be Ryan Gomes who sports the fourth best rating, and fifth best "impact" above, while being drafted #50! On the other hand it's hard to talk of busts at this stage since a number of guys were picked with the understanding that it might be several years before any kind of payoff.

Still if you're looking at the four college seniors taken with Roland Ratings of -6 or below, and also 15% of the playing time, then you're perhaps concerned about their prospects of sticking in the league:

Joey Graham -7.4
Hakim Warrick -8.2
Daniel Ewing -8.8
Orien Greene -10.0

As alluded to at the start, follow ups to this will look at how past draft classes are shaping up a few years down the road...

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Bonn1997
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7/18/2006  8:39 AM
Posted by nyk4ever:

Very interesting Tom. I still think that the rookies were played enough. You shouldn't be handed anything and you have to work for your minutes, especially under a coach like Brown.
It's quite clear the rookies did (work for their minutes) and the vets playing ahead of them did not.

You shouldn't be handed anything
You're right that if you're a VET you're not handed *anything* under Brown; you're handed *everything*!
VDesai
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7/18/2006  9:15 AM
Great stuff Tom. When you compare this to the relative underperformance from some of the vets taking away the minutes, and add the fact that this was an awful team that had no business doing anything else but developing its young talent at the end of the year, its a compelling argument for saying the rookies should've played more.
martin
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7/18/2006  10:04 AM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by nyk4ever:

Very interesting Tom. I still think that the rookies were played enough. You shouldn't be handed anything and you have to work for your minutes, especially under a coach like Brown.
It's quite clear the rookies did (work for their minutes) and the vets playing ahead of them did not.

You shouldn't be handed anything
You're right that if you're a VET you're not handed *anything* under Brown; you're handed *everything*!

excellent Bonn, no one starts cause no one earned the minutes. Thanks for adding that possibility.
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Allanfan20
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7/18/2006  11:09 AM
tomnerve, you're post is well researched and well thought of and you deserve 2 thumbs up, but there's some flaw to it, as well as JoeC. The way I see it (And I think there's a few posters here who would agree) that using purely stats does not tell the story. YES, the rookies certainly did get their fair share of playing time. Maybe Lee got snubbed a little, but Frye and Nate got enough. Plus, in dealing with Lee, you could tell frequently, on the court, why he was getting snubbed. I'm not getting into those reasons, but his inexperience and rawness was clear as daylight to me.

In terms of that PER stuff, I don't really understand it, but I hear it's just an indicator of your general on court performance. THat's a stat I really cannot buy into. You'd have to actually watch the games to judge the impact a player has on his team. Frequently, the 3 guys played real well and always worked hard, but like I said, inexperience was the big factor. 3 years from now, I don't care who the coach is, all 3 of them will be getting big minutes.

This is why I find it hard to really criticize Brown for this area. No matter what, with or w/o the rookies playing, the Knicks would have been awful. So why not make them earn the playing time, and I'm not talking about earning it over the vets already on the Knicks. I'm talking about earning it by passing the standard the Brown has set. I am pretty sure that passing the standard Brown sets is a lot more difficult than doing better than the vets, regardless of how well they are playing. I am pretty sure Bonn is ignoring this paragraph b/c he usually does when I try to make this arguement to him.

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Solace
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7/18/2006  11:54 AM
Originally posted by martin:
Originally posted by Bonn1997:
Originally posted by nyk4ever:

Very interesting Tom. I still think that the rookies were played enough. You shouldn't be handed anything and you have to work for your minutes, especially under a coach like Brown.
It's quite clear the rookies did (work for their minutes) and the vets playing ahead of them did not.
You shouldn't be handed anything
You're right that if you're a VET you're not handed *anything* under Brown; you're handed *everything*!
excellent Bonn, no one starts cause no one earned the minutes. Thanks for adding that possibility.

HAHAHA
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newyorknewyork
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7/18/2006  1:05 PM
Posted by Allanfan20:

tomnerve, you're post is well researched and well thought of and you deserve 2 thumbs up, but there's some flaw to it, as well as JoeC. The way I see it (And I think there's a few posters here who would agree) that using purely stats does not tell the story. YES, the rookies certainly did get their fair share of playing time. Maybe Lee got snubbed a little, but Frye and Nate got enough. Plus, in dealing with Lee, you could tell frequently, on the court, why he was getting snubbed. I'm not getting into those reasons, but his inexperience and rawness was clear as daylight to me.

In terms of that PER stuff, I don't really understand it, but I hear it's just an indicator of your general on court performance. THat's a stat I really cannot buy into. You'd have to actually watch the games to judge the impact a player has on his team. Frequently, the 3 guys played real well and always worked hard, but like I said, inexperience was the big factor. 3 years from now, I don't care who the coach is, all 3 of them will be getting big minutes.

This is why I find it hard to really criticize Brown for this area. No matter what, with or w/o the rookies playing, the Knicks would have been awful. So why not make them earn the playing time, and I'm not talking about earning it over the vets already on the Knicks. I'm talking about earning it by passing the standard the Brown has set. I am pretty sure that passing the standard Brown sets is a lot more difficult than doing better than the vets, regardless of how well they are playing. I am pretty sure Bonn is ignoring this paragraph b/c he usually does when I try to make this arguement to him.

The way I see it. Mo Taylor & M.Rose have just as much flaws as Lee. But Taylor & Rose are who they are. Lee has WAY more room to grow as a player. Lee is already improving his jumpshot which Rose will never improve. Plus he already was a better rebounder/defender than Taylor, And can get up and down and provides more energy than Taylor or Rose. The only justification for not playing Lee was that he isn't a half court type of player unless your running a lot of motion and cutting. Which Brown refused to run.

Frye has his flaws to. But again so do Taylor (who can't guard anyone either) & Rose (who can't guard anyone quick). Frye though is way more effective on the court than either of them. Plus was our lottery pick and the future of the team. Any other coach would have played Frye 29-30mins a game no problem after he proved he was cappable. I don't buy that Frye & Lee didn't earn getting more mins or didn't out work Taylor & Rose. And were already better. The only thing Rose has on them was locker room leadership which earns him some time even if he can't keep up.

Nate's mins only boosted up to 21 because of the injury to Marbury which landed him 30mins a game for April. Which would drop him to 19.66 without it. I could deal with Frye & Nate getting the mins they got. Its not that big a deal to me. But Lee should have gotten an lot more. He symbolized the effort on defense and rebounding that Brown preached. Yet didn't even get the burn he deserved.
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crzymdups
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7/18/2006  1:12 PM
nice work, tom. what's interesting to me is that Frye and Lee both have PERs of over 15, meaning they're above average at their position. Considering we had some of the worst players in the league ahead of them, that's particularly damning to old Larry face. Though I'm sure there will be people who try to blame it on Zeke.
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Allanfan20
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7/18/2006  1:12 PM
NY, I agree with everything you said, but read the last few sentences of my post. I said the standard should have been way higher than outworking Mo T and Rose and James and so and so. I have been saying that for quite sometime...
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newyorknewyork
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7/18/2006  1:13 PM
Posted by Allanfan20:

NY, I agree with everything you said, but read the last few sentences of my post. I said the standard should have been way higher than outworking Mo T and Rose and James and so and so. I have been saying that for quite sometime...

Im sorry. I completely missed that.
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Allanfan20
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7/18/2006  1:16 PM
I understand the frustration though. It's hard thinking just what Brown's plans were with this team. Hard to make any arguement, but I'm just thinking that's the most logical reasoning behind the rookies not getting more time.
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knick rooks' PT justified?

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