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Pacers back on top of the East
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Last summer, more than 90 players changed teams. Two of the top-five players in the league -- Shaquille O'Neal and Tracy McGrady -- were traded. And several top free agents, including Kenyon Martin and Steve Nash, bolted for greener grass elsewhere.
This summer, things have been much quieter. Just over 50 players have changed teams. The most prominent free agent to bolt for a new team? Joe Johnson. The most notable player traded? Antoine Walker.
But the relative quiet this summer doesn't mean the status quo will prevail next season. Insider breaks down how this summer's moves will likely reshuffle the standings in the East.
Ford's Projected 2005-06 Standings in the East
2005-06 Eastern Conference Forecast
1. Indiana Pacers
Major additions: Ron Artest, Sarunas Jasikevicius, Danny Granger
Major subtractions: Reggie Miller, Dale Davis, James Jones
The skinny: Placing the Pacers at No. 1 has little to do with what they did this summer. It has everything to do with what they didn't do last season. With major suspensions for Ron Artest, Jermaine O'Neal and Stephen Jackson, the Pacers still managed to make a heroic run into the second round of the playoffs. The loss of Miller will be a major blow. But the Pacers are hoping that Jasikevicius (who has anchored three straight Euroleague title teams) will bring with him some of Reggie's fourth quarter swagger. The Pacers are also crossing their fingers that their last two first-round picks, David Harrison and Granger -- as well as the immensely talented and always injured Jonathan Bender -- will play big roles. But just like last year, the season hinges on Artest. If he's focused, the Pacers have a chance to be the best team in the league. If he flips out one more time, he'll do irreparable damage.
2. Miami Heat
Major additions: Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, James Posey, Wayne Simien
Major subtractions: Eddie Jones, Keyon Dooling, Rasual Butler
The skinny: The Heat know they have about two, maybe three, more years of the semi-dominant Shaquille O'Neal left (despite giving him a five-year extension this summer). So Pat Riley took a major gamble by bringing in talented (and troubled) scorers such as Walker and Williams to put around Shaq and Dwyane Wade. We'll see whether it works. It reminds me a lot of what Kevin McHale and the Timberwolves did two seasons ago when they traded for Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell to help Kevin Garnett. It almost worked the first season and then blew up in year two. Will it take a full year for this one to backfire in Miami? There aren't enough basketballs in the East for Shaq, Wade, Walker and Williams, let alone Miami. If Michael Finley comes aboard, it will even be more ridiculous. Meanwhile, the team will be filled with players (Wade and Posey excepted) who have no interest in playing defense or team ball. It may work in the regular season, but I don't think the Heat are any closer to winning a title.
3. Detroit Pistons
Major additions: Dale Davis, Jason Maxiell
Major subtractions: None
The skinny: The Pistons are well positioned to keep up their dominant ways. Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton are in their primes. Tayshaun Prince continues to improve. Ben and Rasheed Wallace, along with Antonio McDyess, still have plenty of gas left in the tank. The ugly departure of Larry Brown provides the motivation for the veteran Pistons players to prove that it was them, not Brown, who fueled the Pistons' engine. But if the Pistons are going to get past the Pacers and Heat, they will have to get something from at least one of their young players. Darko Milicic, Carlos Delfino and Carlos Arroyo were all disappointments last season. Some blame Brown. Others wonder if the players themselves were at fault. This year Darko and company have no excuses. Pistons president Joe Dumars and new head coach Flip Saunders agree they need more depth and would like their young guys to provide it. If Darko, Delfino or Arroyo can't deliver, the Pistons will have to start talking about trades.
4. New Jersey Nets
Major additions: Jeff McInnis, Marc Jackson, Antoine Wright
Major subtractions: Brian Scalabrine, Ron Mercer
The skinny: Had the Nets not scuttled the trade for Shareef Abdur-Rahim over a questionable physical, they would've been right in the scrum with the Pistons, Heat and Pacers for the Eastern Conference crown. Without him, they slip to the second tier of teams in the East. The additions they've made, along with a healthy Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson and an improving Nenad Krstic, should make them a very dangerous team.
5. Cleveland Cavs
Major additions: Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall
Major subtractions: Jeff McInnis
The skinny: So far, so good for new GM Danny Ferry. He might have overpaid Hughes and missed opportunities to replace Zydrunas Ilgauskas with someone younger. But the major goal this summer was to put a team on the floor that should be able to compete in the playoffs. On paper, it looks like the mission has been accomplished. If Hughes plays anything like he did last season, LeBron James has a legit All-Star as a sidekick. Marshall remains one of the most underrated players in the league and the team also has high hopes for last year's rookie surprise, Anderson Varejao. If the Cavaliers get some good minutes from Luke Jackson, they might be dangerous. However, the lack of a solid starting point guard and great perimeter shooters should keep the Cavs from seriously challenging for the Eastern Conference title.
6. Washington Wizards
Major additions: Caron Butler, Antonio Daniels, Chucky Atkins
Major subtractions: Larry Hughes, Kwame Brown, Juan Dixon
The skinny: It's tough to get a great read on the Wizards. The loss of Hughes was huge, though it's tough to blame GM Ernie Grunfeld for refusing to give Hughes $70 million. Butler, Daniels and Atkins are all capable replacements for Hughes. Butler doesn't quite have Hughes' versatility, but he's a great addition who'll give head coach Eddie Jordan another potent scorer. The question mark is Daniels. He's coming off the best season of his career, but he just turned 30 years old. How much does he have left? If he can still play great defense and help Gilbert Arenas out at the point, the Wizards should be able to keep pace with what they did last season.
7. Chicago Bulls
Major additions: Eddie Basden
Major subtractions: None
The skinny: At first blush, it appears GM John Paxson hasn't done much to improve on a stellar season last year. But don't judge him too harshly. Paxson has been patiently waiting out restricted free agents Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry. He knows he has the upper hand at the negotiating table and has (rightfully) refused to overpay to keep either. More important, Paxson knows he has a young team that's going to need time to grow and mature. With tons of cap space coming to the Bulls next summer, he's keeping his options open and trying to make a big splash next summer on the free-agent market. It's the right call for a team with one of the brightest futures in the league.
8. Milwaukee Bucks
Major additions: Andrew Bogut, Bobby Simmons
Major subtractions: Zaza Pachulia, Calvin Booth
The skinny: The Bucks hit the jackpot in May when they won the draft lottery. Although I still think they should've taken Marvin Williams, Bogut was a very solid choice who should immediately contribute. GM Larry Harris' luck continued this summer. Re-signing Michael Redd and Dan Gadzuric and landing Simmons via free agency was huge -- as is the potential return of T.J. Ford at the point. The Bucks have athletes. They have depth. They have an inside-out game. If Terry Stotts is as good a coach as George Karl claims he is, the Bucks will make a serious run at a return to the playoffs.
9. Philadelphia 76'ers
Major additions: Steven Hunter
Major subtractions: Marc Jackson, Aaron McKie
The skinny: It looks like two teams will likely challenge the Bucks for the eighth seed in the East: the Sixers and Knicks. The Sixers didn't make any major moves this summer (though replacing Jim O'Brien with Mo Cheeks should extinguish a few fires in the locker room) but they didn't really need to. Allen Iverson is coming off an impressive season and Chris Webber should fit in better with Cheeks at the helm. But more important is the development of two of their key young players: Samuel Dalembert and Andre Iguodala. Dalembert was the leading rebounder in the first round of the playoffs against the best front line in the East (Detroit). Iguodala is the type of all-around player (he defends, rebounds, handles the ball and can score a little) that coaches covet. Toward the end of the season, it was clear several teams made a major mistake passing on Iguodala in the draft. If Dalembert and Iguodala continue to develop, the Sixers should be right back in the playoff hunt.
10. NY Knicks
Major additions: Quentin Richardson, Jerome James, Channing Frye, Nate Robinson
Major subtractions: Kurt Thomas, Jerome Williams
The skinny: Let the soap opera begin. Larry Brown's arrival has created a firestorm of expectations. Can Larry live up to them? Isiah Thomas did a decent job of getting Brown some more talent to work with. Richardson and Robinson, especially, could provide a big impact next year. But is the combo of Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford, Richardson, Tim Thomas, Malik Rose, James, Fyre and Mike Sweetney enough to put the Knicks over the top? There are way too many players on the Knicks' roster who aren't Larry Brown type players. Can he get Marbury and Crawford to play his way? If he can, the Knicks should be a strong playoff contender, a feat that would be among Brown's greatest. If he can't, Brown will want changes -- quickly. Will Isiah swallow his pride and dump his two biggest acquisitions since taking over the Knicks? Either way, the Knicks will be the biggest story of 2005. That may be all Isiah was looking for in the first place.
11. Boston Celtics
Major additions: Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Brian Scalabrine, Curtis Borchardt
Major subtractions: Antoine Walker, Gary Payton
The skinny: Danny Ainge has drafted well the last two seasons ... maybe too well. The Celtics currently have 10 players on their roster with two or fewer years of NBA experience. Paul Pierce is good, but he and Ricky Davis can't carry the team by themselves. For the Celtics to make the playoffs again this season, they're going to have to get major contributions from players who might not be ready to make them. Of all the young players on their roster, Al Jefferson, Delonte West and Tony Allen have the best chance of having breakout years. But given the steep competition in the East this year, will it be enough to put the Celtics over the top? In two more years, we might be referring to the Celtics as the best young team in basketball. But this year might be tough.
12. Orlando Magic
Major additions: Keyon Dooling
Major subtractions: Doug Christie
The skinny: Never let a hockey guy run an NBA team. That was the lesson owner Rich DeVos learned the hard way last season. Former GM John Weisbrod traded away Tracy McGrady and promising rookie Anderson Varejao just when the Magic's fortune was beginning to turn. Grant Hill was finally healthy. The Magic finally landed their big man with No. 1 pick Dwight Howard. Instead, the Magic are now treading water with an unhappy Steve Francis and with a first-round pick who has decided he prefers Spain to Orlando. To be fair, the last mistake, taking Fran Vasquez at No. 11 despite some serious evidence that he didn't want to play in the NBA, wasn't Weisbrod's decision. But it was the latest in a long line of bad luck moves for the Magic. With no major additions this summer (Dooling's 5.2 ppg don't count) it's tough to see the Magic doing anything special in the East this season.
13. Toronto Raptors
Major additions: Charlie Villanueva, Joey Graham, Jose Calderon
Major subtractions: Donyell Marshall
The skinny: New GM Rob Babcock got off to a rocky start in Toronto last season. He blew the draft (selecting Rafael Araujo over Andre Iguodala, Al Jefferson and Josh and J.R. Smith) then gave away the only star the Raptors had ever known in Vince Carter. This summer hasn't been much better. Babcock inspired gasps for a second straight draft when he selected Villanueva at No. 7 (and Graham at No. 16 over Granger and Green) and then failed to get a top-flight free agent to Toronto for the second straight season. The team still has major holes at center and the point, which is never good news. If Villanueva doesn't pan out, it's hard to imagine Babcock lasting the year in Toronto.
14. Atlanta Hawks
Major additions: Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Zaza Pachulia
Major subtractions: Boris Diaw
The skinny: Johnson is a nice, complementary player. But is he really worth invoking divorce proceedings over? Steve Belkin might have been a lousy, cheap, inflexible owner (at least that's how his enemies portray him) but he was right, on principle, to hold up the Johnson deal. Seventy million dollars was too much for Johnson, let alone two protected future first-round picks and a former first rounder. Will Johnson help the team? Yes. But not as much as he helped the Suns last season. Changing positions and becoming the focus of opposing teams' defensive efforts may just be too much for the laid-back Johnson to handle. The good news is that the Hawks landed Williams in the draft and still have lots of money to spend in the future. Now, if they could just find a way to swap Al Harrington or Josh Childress for a legit center.
15. Charlotte Bobcats
Major additions: Raymond Felton, Sean May, Jake Voskuhl
Major subtractions: Jason Hart
The skinny: Despite a few bad bounces of the ping-pong balls (either Chris Paul or Marvin Williams would've been perfect in a Bobcats uniform) the plan remains unchanged in Charlotte. The Bobcats will continue to build slowly through the draft, maintain their cap flexibility, and prepare to make a big splash next summer in the free-agent market. Felton and May were nice draft pick-ups, but I think the Bobcats made a major mistake letting Granger slip away. Everyone in Charlotte is crossing their fingers that Felton and May provide more of a draw and that the team gets luckier in the lottery next season. Given the improved competition in the East, the Bobcats should have the best chance of landing the top pick in the draft.
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