Chad says Bynum is falling because of worries about his knee. Apparently, being a fat ball of lard during his teen years wasn't good for his knees. This was one of my concerns with the tubby little guy...anyway...

Updated: June 28, 2005, 12:05 PM ET
Round One tough to predictBy Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Archive

At 2:30 a.m., many NBA executives are still in their offices, sipping coffee and reviewing their mock drafts.

Millions of dollars worth of scouting, dozens of personal workouts and hours of breaking down film have come down to this.

When David Stern opens the draft for business today at 7:30 p.m. ET, teams are comfortable they know what's happening in the first five minutes. After that? Forget about it.

"Anyone who claims they know what's going to happen tomorrow is either a liar or a psychic," one NBA executive drafting in the mid-first round said Monday. "There are too many variables. Too much parity. Too many rumors floating around. We don't have a clue who's going to be on the board when we pick. And we get paid to do this."

That is the refrain around the league. The draft is deep. The gap between picks 10 and 30 isn't very large. The trade talk is rampant. Bad rumors are floating everywhere.

Throw some chicken bones on the floor and pass the Ouija board – here's our final mock draft with a look at who we think will be taken and a few alternatives should best laid plans go awry.


1. MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Andrew Bogut
UTAH | SOPHOMORE | CENTER
HEIGHT: 7-0 | WEIGHT: 250 | AGE: 20
This sounds like the only sure thing in the draft. The Bucks continue to maintain that they haven't made their decision but everyone believes that they'll select Bogut at No. 1. A mock draft is supposed to tell you who the Bucks are going to take … not who they should take. I still believe that Marvin Williams should be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Bogut's not a bad pick. He has the chance to be special and he's a low-risk player, but I'm still not convinced it's the right decision.

Alternate Pick: Marvin Williams

Scouting report on Andrew Bogut




2. ATLANTA HAWKS
Marvin Williams
NORTH CAROLINA | FRESHMAN | SMALL FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-8 | WEIGHT: 230 | AGE: 18
This is very tough. The word coming out of Atlanta the past two days is that they're seriously considering bypassing Marvin and drafting either Chris Paul or Deron Williams. They don't need a small forward and desperately need a point guard. Both Paul and Deron worked out well. Marvin was just OK. Everything in the draft hinges on what the Hawks do here. If they pass on Marvin, get ready for a wild night.

Alternate Picks: Chris Paul, Deron Williams

Scouting report on Marvin Williams



3. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Deron Williams
ILLINOIS | JUNIOR | POINT GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-3 | WEIGHT: 210 | AGE: 20
The chances of the Blazers' trading this pick are very high. If Marvin Williams is taken at No. 2, expect the Blazers to send the draft rights to Deron Williams along with Ruben Patterson and Sergei Monya to the Jazz for the Nos. 6 and 27 picks, Gordan Giricek and possibly Kirk Snyder. The teams have been in serious trade talks for days and the deal likely will be consummated on draft night if Marvin Williams is off the board. If the Hawks pass on Marvin Williams, all bets are off. Either the Blazers will keep the pick or they'll trade it to the Bobcats for Nos. 5 and 13.

Alternate Picks: Marvin Williams, Chris Paul

Scouting report on Deron Williams



4. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Chris Paul
WAKE FOREST | SOPHOMORE | POINT GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-1 | WEIGHT: 178 | AGE: 20
The Hornets also have been involved in trade talks but most have surrounded adding picks, not getting rid of this one. The Hornets like both Paul and Deron Williams and will take whoever is left. If they're both off the board, that means Marvin Williams falls to them – the best of all circumstances. If they trade down, Granger would be the guy. Their biggest need is at small forward and Granger, who's from Louisiana, would be a great fit.

Alternate Picks: Marvin Williams, Deron Williams, Danny Granger

Scouting report on Chris Paul



5. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Danny Granger
NEW MEXICO | SENIOR | SMALL FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-8 | WEIGHT: 225 | AGE: 22
The Bobcats are trying to move up in the draft to get their hands on Marvin Williams or Paul. If Paul, Marvin and Deron Williams are off the board, the team will choose between potential (Green) and immediate impact (Granger). Given Bernie Bickerstaff's track record last year, don't be surprised if it's Granger.

Alternate Picks: Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Gerald Green, Martell Webster

Scouting report on Danny Granger



6. UTAH JAZZ
Gerald Green
GULF SHORES ACADEMY | H.S. | SHOOTING GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-7 | WEIGHT: 192 | AGE: 19
This pick assumes that Utah will swap picks with the Blazers. The Blazers are high on Green, Martell Webster and high school center Andrew Bynum. However, we hear they'll grab Green if they land at No. 6. If the Jazz keep this pick, look for them to snag Channing Frye if both Chris Paul and Deron Williams are off the board.

Alternate Picks: Martell Webster, Andrew Bynum, Channing Frye

Scouting report on Gerald Green



7. TORONTO RAPTORS
Martell Webster
SEATTLE PREP | H.S. | SHOOTING GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-7 | WEIGHT: 235 | AGE: 18
The Raptors have been in serious talks with the Hornets about trading No. 7, and possibly No. 16, to New Orleans for Jamaal Magloire. If that trade happens (and it might if both Green and Granger are off the board), the Hornets likely would select Frye. If the Raptors keep the pick, they have a tough choice between Frye and Webster. Webster has the upside, Frye fits a need. It's a tough call between the two.

Alternate Picks: Gerald Green, Danny Granger, Channing Frye

Scouting report on Martell Webster



8. NEW YORK KNICKS
Channing Frye
ARIZONA | SENIOR | CENTER
HEIGHT: 6-11 | WEIGHT: 245 | AGE: 22
Isiah Thomas can breathe a sigh of relief. Insider first reported three weeks ago that the Knicks made a promise to Frye and shut down his workouts. Since then, both the Jazz and Raptors have flirted with taking him. Frye and his agent, Rob Pelinka, have told both teams that he doesn't want to play in Utah and Toronto. That could be enough to scare them off. Given the Knicks' lack of size, Frye is the obvious choice. If he's off the board, high school center Andrew Bynum and Spanish forward Fran Vazquez are possibilities.

Alternate Picks: Andrew Bynum, Sean May, Fran Vazquez, Hakim Warrick

Scouting report on Channing Frye



9. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Hakim Warrick
SYRACUSE | SENIOR | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-8 | WEIGHT: 218 | AGE: 22
If both Granger and Frye are off the board, it appears the Warriors have narrowed their list to Warrick, Ike Diogu and Sean May. Sources claim they've been leaning toward Warrick, a long, lean athletic forward who should be able to run the floor with Baron Davis and Jason Richardson.

Alternate Picks: Ike Diogu, Sean May, Fran Vazquez

Scouting report on Hakim Warrick



10. LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Charlie Villanueva
CONNECTICUT | SOPHOMORE | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-10 | WEIGHT: 240 | AGE: 20
This is awfully high for Villanueva, but under the scenarios above, most of the players the Lakers like are off the board. The Lakers like Villanueva because he's a great fit in the triangle, but they're going to have to get rid of some logjams if he's going to get any minutes next season. If Villanueva doesn't go here, the Bobcats and Pacers are also high on him.

Alternate Picks: Andrew Bynum, Sean May, Fran Vazquez

Scouting report on Charlie Villanueva





[Edited by - crzymdups on 06/28/2005 12:24:15]

Where's Bynum?

21. PHOENIX SUNS
Johan Petro
FRANCE | CENTER
HEIGHT: 7-1 | WEIGHT: 250 | AGE: 19
Petro has the size and talent of a lottery pick, but he's been very slow to develop, which has caused some NBA teams to worry. Petro is probably another year or two away from helping a team, even if he does develop. However, if he ever gets it, he could be the perfect center in the Suns' system down the road. Don't be surprised if Nate Robinson also gets a look here. He's a perfect fit in their super-speed offense.

Alternate Picks: Nate Robinson, Martynas Andriuskevicius, Andray Blatche, Ersan Ilyasova

Scouting report on Johan Petro



22. DENVER NUGGETS
Andrew Bynum
ST. JOSEPH, N.J. | H.S. | CENTER
HEIGHT: 7-0 | WEIGHT: 300 | AGE: 17
The Nuggets have decided to either trade this pick or use it on a project. If Bynum falls this far (talk about knee problems may be sinking his stock at the moment), something will happen. Either a team will cut a deal to grab him or the Nuggets will take him themselves and develop him as a long-term replacement for Marcus Camby.

Alternate Picks: Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles, Martynas Andriuskevicius, Ersan Ilyasova

Scouting report on Andrew Bynum



23. SACRAMENTO KINGS
Chris Taft
PITTSBURGH | SOPHOMORE | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-10 | WEIGHT: 250 | AGE: 20
Taft has the size and strength of a lottery pick and the work ethic of an NBDL player. Still, he's a steal once teams begin drafting in the 20s. He has the physical tools to replace Chris Webber on the Kings' front line. But will Rick Adelman ever be able to motivate him?

Alternate Picks: Luther Head, Ersan Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, David Lee

Scouting report on Chris Taft



24. HOUSTON ROCKETS
Wayne Simien
KANSAS | SENIOR | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-9 | WEIGHT: 255 | AGE: 22
Despite reports to the contrary, the Rockets likely will keep this pick. Houston could use a tough rebounder with experience and Simien fits the bill. Concerns about injuries and size are the only things keeping him out of the lottery. He's one of those few guys who aren't afraid to go inside and bang, but also has a nice perimeter game. He's a safe pick. Point guards Ukic and Luther Head could also be steals here.

Alternate Picks: Luther Head, Roko Ukic, Julius Hodge

Scouting report on Wayne Simien



25. SEATTLE SONICS
Jarrett Jack
GEORGIA TECH | JUNIOR | POINT GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-3 | WEIGHT: 200 | AGE: 21
Jack could be off the board in the mid-first round, but it's conceivable that he slips all the way to here. He's a very good point guard prospect who just needs to cut down on his turnovers. With Antonio Daniels set to bolt in free agency, the Sonics have a strong need for a back-up point guard with size and toughness.

Alternate Picks: Ersan Ilyasova, Luther Head, Roko Ukic, Angelo Gigli

Scouting report on Jarrett Jack



26. DETROIT PISTONS
Julius Hodge
NORTH CAROLINA ST | SENIOR | GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-7 | WEIGHT: 205 | AGE: 21
Hodge may not be the greatest shooter in the draft, but he has all the intangibles Joe Dumars loves in his players. He's tough, versatile and he seems to want it more than most guys on the floor. The team is also looking strongly at Ryan Gomes, a Corliss Williamson-like forward and Jason Maxiell, the mini-Ben Wallace.
BR>
Alternate Picks: Ryan Gomes, Nate Robinson, Jason Maxiell

Scouting report on Julius Hodge



27. UTAH JAZZ
Martynas Andriuskevicius
LITHUANIA | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 7-3 | WEIGHT: 230 | AGE: 19
This pick assumes that the Jazz are swapping with the Blazers. Portland once considered taking Andriuskevicius in the lottery and would be ecstatic to get a player of his talent this low in the draft. If Utah keeps the pick, it's tough to argue that they'd do it differently, though they could go for Roko Ukic if they didn't get a point guard earlier.

Alternate Picks: Roko Ukic, Ersan Ilyasova, Jason Maxiell

Scouting report on Martynas Andriuskevicius



28. SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Ersan Ilyasova
TURKEY | SMALL FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-9 | WEIGHT: 220 | AGE: 18
The Spurs have a history of mining international diamonds in the rough late in the first round. Ilyasova would be no exception. He's big, athletic, and very skilled. The only reason he slips this far is because an ankle injury retarded his development this year.

Alternate Picks: Julius Hodge, Mickael Gelebale, David Lee, Axel Hervelle

Scouting report on Ersan Ilyasova



29. MIAMI HEAT
Luther Head
ILLINOIS | SENIOR | GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-3 | WEIGHT: 180 | AGE: 22
Head may be the biggest steal in the draft if he lasts this long. Teams will start seriously considering him in the mid first round. He'd be awesome in the Miami backcourt next to Dwyane Wade. There's also talk that the Heat are high on local product Matt Walsh along with rumors that the Heat may have promised Serbian center Mile Ilic.

Alternate Picks: Matt Walsh, Mile Ilic, Chris Taft, Wayne Simien

Scouting report on Luther Head



30. NEW YORK KNICKS
Andray Blatche
SOUTH KENT PREP | H.S. | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-11 | WEIGHT: 240 | AGE: 18
Blatche has been under the radar all year, in part because he's insisted on not playing like a 7-footer in order to show NBA scouts that he's versatile. Blatche has been referred to as a poor man's Kevin Garnett. He runs the floor well, can handle the ball, has 3-point range on his jumper and is an excellent rebounder. He may be a year or two away, but eventually he and Channing Frye could be a great pair on the Knicks' front line.

Alternate Picks: Monta Ellis, Mile Ilic

Scouting report on Andray Blatche




Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider. Send him an e-mail here.

If we get Frye and Blatche, I'm throwing a party.

22. DENVER NUGGETS
Andrew Bynum
ST. JOSEPH, N.J. | H.S. | CENTER
HEIGHT: 7-0 | WEIGHT: 300 | AGE: 17
The Nuggets have decided to either trade this pick or use it on a project. If Bynum falls this far (talk about knee problems may be sinking his stock at the moment), something will happen. Either a team will cut a deal to grab him or the Nuggets will take him themselves and develop him as a long-term replacement for Marcus Camby.

Why do you hate Channing Frye? Is it because he is polished, fundamentally sound and still growing?

Posted by crzymdups:

Posted by PhilinLA:

Why do you hate Channing Frye? Is it because he is polished, fundamentally sound and still growing?

it's probably because he's a 6'11" shotblocker. this team has far too many 6'11" shotblockers, so really, we should be taking a risk on an overweight HS kid who has knee problems from all those twinkies he ate...

It's probably because he has a full compliment of offensive skills, shooting, passing, and around the hoop. We're stockpiling those guys, and I'm sick of it.

Or maybe he hates Frye because he actually knows something about basketball and has, can you guess, WATCHED Frye play.

So stop with the assasine remarks and think for yourselves just once and you will see that Frye is an overhyped role player who did not even come close to dominatingin college where he had half a foot on most players.

yeah, it really makes no sense to hate a 4 year college senior that put up solid numbers in a system and will be starting by the all star break.

But I agree, we have way to many polished shot blocking 6-11 players on our team to even consider drafting frye.

It would be stupid to waste a #8 pick on someone that could contribute in the next 3 years and fill a gaping hole on our team.

I'm with you on that one.

no way Blatche makes it to 30. you'd have to settle for Randolph Morris or Turiaf

Hope Briggs would be here to talk to us about how great Bynum's knee is...