TripleThreat wrote:By the time Marc Gasol hits free agency, he will be of the age where his next contract will cover his decline phase as a player. Now some players, rare players, are outliers against Father Time, and age very well, but most see a major fall off as they move into their mid 30s. While younger Gasol has been surprisingly durable for his career and he has a well layered skill set for a big man, center is a position of attrition. It's a lot of contact and banging and that type of wear and tear will shorten a players career ( There's a reason Chris Bosh was initially resistant to play center and Al Horford has basically begged the Hawks every year to get a center) This is the common criticism of the Marcin Gortat contract, that the length will make it an ugly contract the last two years or so, because of how centers tend to age.
Marc Gasol will likely have more incentive to resign with the Grizzlies, they can offer more money and an extra year, and because of positional value of center in general and his established celebrity within the local fanbase, the Grizzlies can justify an overpay for a long time veteran.
Gasol is only worth a contract to the Knicks if they are on the cusp of being true contenders the first two years of that contract and he's the perfect fit for them.
Essentially the Knicks signing Marc Gasol as a free agent is about nil. I wouldn't say zero. I would say anyone here would have a better chance getting double teamed with whipped cream by Derek Jeter's leftovers off his little black book.
1) He's not likely to sigh somewhere for less money and one less year, esp when that 5th year will be within his critical decline phase range.
2) He's at an age where a wife and kids established in Memphis won't want to move. Wife not happy, you aren't happy. Don't think these guys are marrying the most awesome women in the world, despite height, fame and money, they are still just men, and wives are still wives. Anyone here want to sign up for four years of a miserable nagging harpy on your case for uprooting her even though being uprooted is part and parcel part of the deal with marrying a pro athlete. (Never expect logic from a woman like being potentially uprooted is the tradeoff for living a lavish lifestyle)
3) Why would a player want to sign with a team that can't offer instant contender status far above and beyond his own situation? That's the pull for less money and less years for some players and the Knicks simply will not be contenders in the next two years.
And how often has a massive amount of cap space worked out for teams looking to make a major splash in free agency?
It hasn't. Remember when the Bulls carved out tons of space trying to gun for Duncan, McGrady and Grant Hill and ended up with .... Ron Mercer.
The ability to carve out a ton of cap space is NOT a sign of a team's competitive health.
Do you think Durant will want to sign with a team that offers him EVEN less of a chance to contend and will have to DO MORE than presently just to reach his current level of winning?
Durant is an elite scorer, but he's basically a 7 foot gunner who can't really defend wings. As he ages, he'll have to be a super charged stretch 4. Don't get me wrong, he's a lethal scorer, but Melo is already a quasi power forward on the roster. The Knicks don't need a super charged Stretch 4, even if he's one of the best players in the league, they need elite two way wings and someone who can defend the rim. Even if Durant would sign ( and he wouldn't), it would choke out the cap from the Knicks getting other critical team needs to compete.
Now if the Knicks has kept picks in the last 6 years and had slow and steady built a strong supporting cast, mostly on rookie contracts, set to complement Durant, then they might have had a chance to attract him to NY.
Playing in a "destination city" loses a lot of it's value when you don't have a winning roster already. Key free agents are going to look at the incoming roster first and foremost. Do you think LeBron James didn't factor in the Cavs assets before he "went home"?
The Knicks NEED TO BUILD THROUGH THE DRAFT.
The current CBA is DESIGNED TO REWARD TEAMS THAT BUILD THROUGH THE DRAFT.
Most of the market inefficiencies that can be exploited in the current CBA ARE ONLY AVAILABLE TO TEAMS THAT BUILD THROUGH THE DRAFT AND AREN'T INTO THE LUXURY TAX ZONE.
The Knicks need to make smart saavy signings against market trends, like how the Hawks signed Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore to very team friendly deals that won't shake the world, but improve the team structure and leave future flexibility.
The Knicks ARE NOT GETTING Durant and/or Marc Gasol.
As I've mentioned before, massive cap space is NOT a sign of a healthy personnel situation on an NBA team. Teams should not aim for massive cap space, but CAP FLEXIBILITY ( a strong mix of young players with upside out performing their rookie contracts, veterans on reasonable flexible contracts, no albatross overpays, a clear focus on paying heavy only for high positional value assets like a rim protector or elite two way wings, players mined from the 2nd round and UDFAs who were developed into young rotational players/strong role players playing for peanuts and didn't require a 1st round picks cap hold) Add that to draft pick ammo and some moderate cap space open, and you've got a nice balance of assets to make a bunch of different moves and open up your options.
There is no quick fix. There is no one player savior coming to wash away the Knicks failures and wasted assets of the last 15 years.
The Knicks, our beloved Knicks, didn't get here overnight, they won't exit this bad era overnight.
IMHO in 2017, there will a lockout and a massive labor war, and I believe the fallout will be a league that simulates the NFL model ( teams can rearm within 2 years, non guaranteed contracts as the widespread standard, a franchise player rule of some sorts, a hard cap) which will reward teams with young hungry GMs who are saavy and understand analytics. In that kind of market, guys like Rob Hennigan, Masai Ujiri, Sam Presti, Daryl Morey, Rick Cho are going to clean house. With that much leverage and no longer being constrained by guaranteed contracts, you will see more young "Billy Beane" types being the trend.
The Knicks do not need Marc Gasol and/or Kevin Durant as much as they need to be AHEAD OF THE CURVE and arm up with young bright minds, young guys who understand the CBA and cap, saavy guys who are tireless and can work with analytics and stay fresh on the cutting edge to be ready for the fallout of 2017. Build the front office right, arm it with the best minds in the league, and the elite players will get here, because the Knicks will be drafting them.
To have something worth real value, something that lasts, it needs to be built over time. There's no shortcut to building something of value that lasts. That's not just a reality of the NBA and pro sports, it's a truism of everyday life.
This is the philosophy of winning.
Boring years of hard work, dedication, and persistence.
This is he wisdom of few... the crowd want to win lottery jack-pots.
8/20/2014 12:08 PM