yellowboy90 wrote:what kind of shot and how many points are they down?

last 24 seconds, either tied or down by 1 or 2 points

Bonn1997 wrote:Same person I'd want shooting at any other point in the game - Lebron. He can create his own shot and hits 57% of the time.

Lebron because he is good in the clutch or because he is overall efficient?

So if you knew that a player who shoots at a very high pct does badly in clutch moments would you still want them to take the shot?

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Same person I'd want shooting at any other point in the game - Lebron. He can create his own shot and hits 57% of the time.

Lebron because he is good in the clutch or because he is overall efficient?

So if you knew that a player who shoots at a very high pct does badly in clutch moments would you still want them to take the shot?

It could easily just be random variation if he does badly in clutch moments. You're probably talking about a sample of 20 shots over a career (basically equal to one bad game). I know people like to glorify and demonize those who do great or badly in the final seconds but it's probably just the peak of human misunderstanding of statistics.

Also, a large part of the "HE'S NOT CLUTCH" argument is that Lebron is willing to make the right play and pass the ball to a teammate if they have a better shot than Lebron instead of jacking up shots from 22-feet with 4 guys in his face like Kobe does.

Basically, what I'm saying is that I want the ball in Lebron's hands because he's who I trust the most to make the right decision and get the best possible shot for his team.

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Same person I'd want shooting at any other point in the game - Lebron. He can create his own shot and hits 57% of the time.

Lebron because he is good in the clutch or because he is overall efficient?

So if you knew that a player who shoots at a very high pct does badly in clutch moments would you still want them to take the shot?

It could easily just be random variation if he does badly in clutch moments. You're probably talking about a sample of 20 shots over a career (basically equal to one bad game). I know people like to glorify and demonize those who do great or badly in the final seconds but it's probably just the peak of human misunderstanding of statistics.

As of 2009, Lebron was 17-50 with the game on the line (34%)

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Same person I'd want shooting at any other point in the game - Lebron. He can create his own shot and hits 57% of the time.

Lebron because he is good in the clutch or because he is overall efficient?

So if you knew that a player who shoots at a very high pct does badly in clutch moments would you still want them to take the shot?

It could easily just be random variation if he does badly in clutch moments. You're probably talking about a sample of 20 shots over a career (basically equal to one bad game). I know people like to glorify and demonize those who do great or badly in the final seconds but it's probably just the peak of human misunderstanding of statistics.

As of 2009, Lebron was 17-50 with the game on the line (34%)

Hell no to Kobe!

Him being mr clutch is a myth

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Same person I'd want shooting at any other point in the game - Lebron. He can create his own shot and hits 57% of the time.

Lebron because he is good in the clutch or because he is overall efficient?

So if you knew that a player who shoots at a very high pct does badly in clutch moments would you still want them to take the shot?

It could easily just be random variation if he does badly in clutch moments. You're probably talking about a sample of 20 shots over a career (basically equal to one bad game). I know people like to glorify and demonize those who do great or badly in the final seconds but it's probably just the peak of human misunderstanding of statistics.

As of 2009, Lebron was 17-50 with the game on the line (34%)

"Game on the line" is vague but regardless, I'm sure Jordan, Magic and all the greats had many 50 shot stretches where they made 17 or fewer

Because you weigh the first shot of the game the same as the last shot of the game when the score is tied?

Its not the same. FG percentage for the league in those moment is < 30 percent. Those pressure shots where they are must haves are not easy.

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Same person I'd want shooting at any other point in the game - Lebron. He can create his own shot and hits 57% of the time.

Lebron because he is good in the clutch or because he is overall efficient?

So if you knew that a player who shoots at a very high pct does badly in clutch moments would you still want them to take the shot?

It could easily just be random variation if he does badly in clutch moments. You're probably talking about a sample of 20 shots over a career (basically equal to one bad game). I know people like to glorify and demonize those who do great or badly in the final seconds but it's probably just the peak of human misunderstanding of statistics.

As of 2009, Lebron was 17-50 with the game on the line (34%)

"Game on the line" is vague but regardless, I'm sure Jordan, Magic and all the greats had many 50 shot stretches where they made 17 or fewer

Because you weigh the first shot of the game the same as the last shot of the game when the score is tied?

Its not the same. FG percentage for the league in those moment is < 30 percent. Those pressure shots where they are must haves are not easy.

Even if we accept that it's not the same, it doesn't mean a sample of 50 shots is meaningful. Likewise, even if FG% is lower in the closing seconds, it doesn't mean that those shots are more important than the shots before them. I'm not opposed to the idea of studying which players are clutch but I don't think listing percentages of a couple dozen shots is useful. What separates the guys at the top from the bottom of the list is probably about 5 made shots spread over 10 years.

There are very few chances during a career that a player has the opportunities to take these shots. Kobe took 115 of them and hit 36. That is a ton of shots in this category.

With so few opportunities to affect the final outcome of the game, we must rely on the smaller sample sizes.

Alan Iverson took 68 shots with the game on the line and hit 21 of them.

MrBigshot is something like a 16% shooter in these moments. FAR FROM EARNING THE MONIKER.

82games had this study back in 2009 but they also starting tracking the last 5 minutes of a game since then.

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Same person I'd want shooting at any other point in the game - Lebron. He can create his own shot and hits 57% of the time.

Lebron because he is good in the clutch or because he is overall efficient?

So if you knew that a player who shoots at a very high pct does badly in clutch moments would you still want them to take the shot?

It could easily just be random variation if he does badly in clutch moments. You're probably talking about a sample of 20 shots over a career (basically equal to one bad game). I know people like to glorify and demonize those who do great or badly in the final seconds but it's probably just the peak of human misunderstanding of statistics.

As of 2009, Lebron was 17-50 with the game on the line (34%)

"Game on the line" is vague but regardless, I'm sure Jordan, Magic and all the greats had many 50 shot stretches where they made 17 or fewer

Because you weigh the first shot of the game the same as the last shot of the game when the score is tied?

Its not the same. FG percentage for the league in those moment is < 30 percent. Those pressure shots where they are must haves are not easy.

Even if we accept that it's not the same, it doesn't mean a sample of 50 shots is meaningful. Likewise, even if FG% is lower in the closing seconds, it doesn't mean that those shots are more important than the shots before them. I'm not opposed to the idea of studying which players are clutch but I don't think listing percentages of a couple dozen shots is useful. What separates the guys at the top from the bottom of the list is probably about 5 made shots spread over 10 years.

There are very few chances during a career that a player has the opportunities to take these shots. Kobe took 115 of them and hit 36. That is a ton of shots in this category.

With so few opportunities to affect the final outcome of the game, we must rely on the smaller sample sizes.

Alan Iverson took 68 shots with the game on the line and hit 21 of them.

MrBigshot is something like a 16% shooter in these moments. FAR FROM EARNING THE MONIKER.

82games had this study back in 2009 but they also starting tracking the last 5 minutes of a game since then.