that's a significant hit,

can't say i disagree

last year it was more like a 47 win team if you want Real Talk,

but they got the fire balls

dk7th wrote:"The next step is using player projections to generate forecasts for teams. It's not quite as simple as adding up player statistics because of how players interact with each other. On offense, SCHOENE adjusts teams based on their projected ratio of assists to field goals to attempt to account for the value of passing. There is also an adjustment based on whether players are projected to use more or fewer plays than average based on their past history to account for the trade-off between usage and efficiency."

so this system rewards passing and efficiency as it translates to chemistry. nobody among bargnani, melo, felton, or smith excel at these aspects of the game so chemistry will be hard to come by.

the biggest flaws in the knicks were in fact low assists and a lopsided usage rate along with sub-par efficiency among the three biggest users. now we are adding a fourth. how is this going to help the team? jason kidd did wonders for the team while his legs held up but unfortunately woodson had to play him too much by chasing the carrot of more regular-season wins instead of keeping kidd fresh and discovering prigioni earlier. that said, the two-point guard lineup is just another scheme that compromises the defense.

this year we are adding another player in bargnani who only compounds the problem in terms of usage, efficiency, defense-- yet we are expecting the habits of these players to suddenly evolve into something different. yes, the projections are based on the past three seasons but can we expect leopards to change their spots?

this team could easily implode, especially without genuine leadership. who are the leaders on this team?

Did you vote?

Bonn1997 wrote:

IronWillGiroud wrote:the problem is they overshot their load last year with 54,

last year it was more like a 47 win team if you want Real Talk,

but they got the fire balls

This is just something people tell themselves to make sense of why the team lost in the 2nd round IMO. They won 54 games because they outscored their opponents 54 times. It's not like the score-keeper made mistakes in several of those wins. For a portion of the season, Jason Kidd really was hitting a huge percentage of his 3s, moving the ball great, and rebounding great. And for a portion of the year, Tyson Chandler was shooting 8 or 9 for 10 in every game and grabbing 5+ offensive rebounds. Those are legitimate portions of the season that contributed to a high win total.
And if you could rewind the clock a year and replay the season, you'd probably get a similar result: Kidd's rested body plays great early in the season but then declines as he can't handle a full season. Chandler is healthy and great for a small stretch but can't stay healthy, etc.

Did you vote?

ChuckBuck wrote:

dk7th wrote:"The next step is using player projections to generate forecasts for teams. It's not quite as simple as adding up player statistics because of how players interact with each other. On offense, SCHOENE adjusts teams based on their projected ratio of assists to field goals to attempt to account for the value of passing. There is also an adjustment based on whether players are projected to use more or fewer plays than average based on their past history to account for the trade-off between usage and efficiency."

so this system rewards passing and efficiency as it translates to chemistry. nobody among bargnani, melo, felton, or smith excel at these aspects of the game so chemistry will be hard to come by.

the biggest flaws in the knicks were in fact low assists and a lopsided usage rate along with sub-par efficiency among the three biggest users. now we are adding a fourth. how is this going to help the team? jason kidd did wonders for the team while his legs held up but unfortunately woodson had to play him too much by chasing the carrot of more regular-season wins instead of keeping kidd fresh and discovering prigioni earlier. that said, the two-point guard lineup is just another scheme that compromises the defense.

this year we are adding another player in bargnani who only compounds the problem in terms of usage, efficiency, defense-- yet we are expecting the habits of these players to suddenly evolve into something different. yes, the projections are based on the past three seasons but can we expect leopards to change their spots?

this team could easily implode, especially without genuine leadership. who are the leaders on this team?

Did you vote?

Conspiracy theory of the day: Dk7th is the same dude that came up with this formula and is really a regular TV figurehead over at ESPN. He poses as a somber on this board to bring down Knicks fans' morale in an attempt to make outlandish ESPN predictions seem plausible, in effect performing constant damage control. It's brilliant!

fitzfarm wrote:espn should really clean house, their predictions are awful.Their so called experts are always wrong. I still see the knicks as a top 3 team in the nba with no questions.... the only reason we lost to indy was terrible officiating and injurys. This is just plain hatterade, espn has never liked ny sports. Just take a look at all the predictions in espn sports, they had the jets ranked 32 and the giants going to the super bowl... that stuff is just laughable. i read espn to get my kicks.They really should fire and hire some new people who actually know their stuff.

Two comments: (a) They've been right about this team far more than almost anyone here over the past 10 years and (b) you really think they developed this schoene system several years ago just because they wanted to make the 2013 Knicks look bad? Really?

fitzfarm wrote:really? I didnt say they built the system to hate on the knicks. Just in general that they seem to drink the nyc hatterade. also there predictions from last year and years past have been way off .... looking at last years predictions they had us finishing 6th and we finished 2nd for the regular season... that to me equals way off in my book with phily and boston finishing ahead of us ahahahah that **** is just laughable... do your homework dog

Dagger wrote:Hey guys after investigating this article I believe ESPN is saying that they expect the Knicks to win anywhere in the range of 37-45 games. It's not saying the Knicks will be 37-45. While it's still a very low ball prediction it's less horse**** ridiculous than it appeared at first glance.

No it's specifically says record of 37 wins and 45 losses(7th seed in the East) by their Schoene projection system.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/knicks/post/_/id/48821/opening-tip-over-or-under-37-wins