NBA Playoffs 2024 - First Round

Welcome to the 2023-24 NBA Playoffs first round.

The first round is always a lot of fun for me, as there are a ton of games, and even though it’s an elimination series, the stakes somehow feel a bit lower. I’ve got a set of somewhat uninformed comments and thoughts on each series below. We have some, but not all, results of the first set of games in each series at the time of writing.

We can jump to all sorts of silly conclusions after one game!

Magic vs Cavaliers - Your NBAtv Special Series. So far it’s working out the way I thought, in that the Magic, after 14 years of high picks and rebuilding, have a really interesting team, a really tall team, that just can’t score enough. They’re all pretty young in Orlando, but continuing to draft non shooters is proving to be a bit of an issue.

Meanwhile, Cleveland had better win this one, and so far they are, with their goal apparently being “get out of the first round” after last year’s debacle at the hands of the Knicks. Donovan Mitchell continues to send out coded messages that aren’t really positive about Cleveland. Of course, re-signing him could be a sort of “Winners Curse” situation, in that maybe we have enough data to see the ceiling of Donovan Mitchell lead teams.

Suns vs Timberwolves - Lots of people picked the Suns in this series, and maybe they’ll end up winning. But my thought was “Have you WATCHED much of the Suns? Because they just don’t look good, and not being able to hold any leads is likely a big problem in the playoffs.”

Winner: TWolves

76ers vs Knicks - If you loved James Harden dribbling, dribbling, dribbling and taking weird shots all the time, Jalen Brunson vs the 76ers is your kind of series. The Knicks are a fun team, and I’d like them to win. I’m frankly sick of the 76ers and Joel Embiid storylines. Why the Embiid 76ers get a perpetual pass for playoff failures, and the Rockets never did amazes me. Maybe all the Rockets should have started grimacing and limping, right into the camera, every time, when it seemed all was lost?

Winner: Knicks

Lakers vs Nuggets - The Nuggets are world champs for a reason. They’re really good, and there’s no answer, at present anyway, for Jokic. I don’t think the supporting cast of the Nuggets is especially amazing, and that includes Murray, but Jokic is especially amazing, and the team is built to work with him. The Lakers aren’t miles worse than the Nuggets, but they’re worse, and I think they’re going to lose this series in five.

Winner: Nuggets

Celtics vs Heat - The first game was a summary execution of Miami. No doubt Boston fans are feeling good, on this road to a coronation after a triumphal regular season. And that’s just when the Santeria trash-magic of the Heat steals your soul. Or it doesn’t. Maybe Boston can overcome it...this time. Also at stake is the Miami narrative, that somehow despite having the exact same resources as every other NBA team, they’re a scrappy underdog that just works harder. Miami’s stars are really...mid. No fanbase simultaneously boasts and whines quite like Boston, though, so let’s hope they really get something to whine about.

Winner: Heat, but mostly because it would be hilarious, not out of a real conviction.

Mavericks vs Clippers - The talk has been All Mavericks All The Time for this one. “They’re a threat to beat Denver! Dallas is just amazing. Kyrie is a true leader of men. Their defense is real and spectacular!” Etc. Can Dallas stop four future HoFers though, when they actually care? If Dallas goes down two games, how long until Luka or Kyrie, or both, pull up lame? Who will do it first?

Winner: Clippers, because, again, funnier.

Pacers vs Bucks - My main interest here is to see if the Bucks will end up paying FOUR coaches after this season ends. I expect it will end quickly, absent an absolutely Fosterian free throw barrage for the Bucks. I have had this theory for a long time that Budenholzer is a hod-rodder. That is, he’s optimized every team he coaches to get everything out of them that they can possibly do. This is problematic in the playoffs, as there’s usually not another gear (unless Giannis somehow goes supernova) and thus his teams exit when their opponents ramp up their games. That means, though, that it might not matter who you bring in as a new coach. They won’t find anything new with the roster, except Lillard, who appears to be aging years in months, with his life in disarray, living in the midwest. Giannis’ reputation as a coach killer is vastly understated at this point, but not after Doc is sent away...

Winner: Pacers, because I want four coaches in less than a year in Milwaukee.

Pelicans vs Thunder - Two really annoying teams, but in different ways, and it’s less the fault of OKC than the people who talk about OKC. Can they both lose, though? I like almost nobody on the Pelicans, and few on the Thudner. The funnier outcome is OKC just getting absolutely rolled by the team people usually forget exists in the NBA, the Pelicans. So let’s hope for that.

Winner: Pelicans, again, for comedy.