Knicks vs. 76ers: First-round series breakdown

Having beaten the Miami Heat in a down to the wire nailbiter, the Philadelphia 76ers will now move on to face off against division rivals New York Knicks in the first round of the eastern conference. So, now that the matchup is set, let’s take a deeper look at the series.

First off are the expectations. Unlike most matchups between the number two and number seven seed, many have this series being a close one with some even believing that the 76ers are favorites. Charles Barkley more or less picked them over the Knicks Wednesday night, Colin Cowherd did the same, and if you, like many other smart fans, choose not to listen to sports “entertainers” who mask themselves as analysts, look no further than Las Vegas, which opened up with the Knicks’ odds of winning the series at a surprising +106.

To summarize, a lot of people think that Philadelphia is the favorite. And as I wrote a couple of days ago, I don’t fully blame them.

The 76ers are led by Joel Embiid, who was the clear favorite to win the MVP, and they were 31-8 in the regular season when he played. Regardless of how good Brunson is and has been, a healthy Embiid still trumps him and in the playoffs, more often than not, the team with the best player wins. The 76ers have that, plus another All-Star in Tyrese Maxey, and a solid supporting cast surrounding them.

That being said, Philadelphia presents a difficult but certainly beatable matchup. Included in the aforementioned piece I wrote earlier this week, are Embiid’s playoff and fourth-quarter struggles. Since 2020, Embiid has averaged less than 25 PPG in three of seven playoff series and has averaged 20 PPG or less in two of them.

Just last season, Embiid set the record for the largest regular season to playoff scoring drop-off by that season’s MVP as he went from averaging 33.1 PPG in the regular season to a measly 23.7 PPG in the playoffs.

Not only that, Embiid has become notorious for failing to consistently perform in the fourth quarter of playoff games. In 48 postseason games, the 76ers center is averaging just 5.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 0.6 assists in the fourth quarter, which is quite significant because the Knicks finished the season fourth in the league in fourth-quarter net rating. This could become a very important factor to keep an eye on. Embiid clearly didn’t look 100% in the 76ers’ play-in game against the Heat, and there’s plenty of reason to question, or at least wonder if Embiid and his knees can sustain four quarters of high-usage basketball against what will be a very physical and active Knicks defense.

And truth be told, this is the exact kind of situation the Knicks are used to being in, and quite frankly, thrive in. This team is full of players who are used to being overlooked and underestimated and seem to revel in being the underdogs. But what exactly do the Knicks need to do if they want to take care of Philadelphia and set their sights on the next round?

Knicks vs. 76ers: 5 Keys to Winning

1. Brunson needs to be great

It goes without saying, but Brunson needs to be great for the Knicks to have any shot at winning this series.

He is the head of the snake, the engine of this team if you will, and Nick Nurse and his coaching staff will do everything they can to make life difficult for Brunson.

The great news for the Knicks and their fans is that Brunson got a whole lot of practice playing against different kinds of schemes with Julius Randle out. After the big man suffered what ended up being a season-ending injury, Brunson not only saw his usage rate shoot up, but he also saw teams send a lot more double teams, hedging screens much harder, and being more physical with him than ever. Yet he wasn’t slowed down one bit. In fact, he got even better and finished the season averaging 28.7 PPG, and 6.7 APG to end the season. Additionally, fans can rest assured knowing that he proved just last playoffs that he is more than capable of being the number one option on a playoff team.

But if he has an off game or two or inexplicably comes up short, the Knicks will find it incredibly difficult to win the series.

2. Donte DiVincenzo must attempt and make a lot of threes

It’s no secret by now just how crucial DiVincenzo is to the Knicks’ offense. The first-year Knick averaged 15.5 PPG while shooting 40.1% from three on 8.7 attempts per game, and they’ll need him to continue his hot shooting in the playoffs because it’s the way he gets his points that makes such a difference.

Obviously, the 15.5 PPG is nice to have but it’s the high percentage and the efficiency on high-volume three-point shot attempts that really helped out the Knicks’ offense this season.

It keeps defenses honest and makes life a little easier for the aforementioned Brunson and it should stop teams from defending the Knicks the way the Heat did against them last playoffs.

3. Knicks need to stay disciplined on defense

Joel Embiid likes to get to the foul line. Everybody knows that. But they still can’t stop it and he still gets there often due to his size, skill, strength, and let’s just be nice and call it a knack for drawing contact. And I don’t doubt that Embiid will continue to get there relatively often against the Knicks. But they must stay disciplined and limit it as much as possible.

It’s obviously easier said than done but they can’t get drawn into the antics and fall for his flurry of fakes and crafty tricks. If they can make Embiid, who again didn’t look to be 100% against Miami, work hard offensively and limit the number of free throw attempts he gets, it’ll go a long way in winning the series.

4. Josh Hart has to remain aggressive

Hart has never been known as a traditional scorer and never will. And that’s alright. The Knicks don’t need him to completely take over nightly, or go iso, or be a high-volume shooter. But what they absolutely cannot afford is for Hart to get over passive.

There were too many games throughout the season where Hart just looked completely uninterested in scoring and looked to do anything but put the ball in the basket. That can’t happen in the playoffs.

Opposing teams will throw everything they have at Brunson, and maybe even DiVincenzo so they’ll need Hart to continue being aggressive in looking for his own shots whether they are mid-range pull-up shots, soft touch floaters, from three, off of cuts, in the fast break, or on those short pocket passes when Brunson gets doubled.

5. Knicks must keep 76ers role players in check, and win the role player battle

As stated earlier the team with the best player often wins, meaning it’s the stars that usually determine the winner and loser of a series. In a case such as this though, where both stars seem relatively even matched, role players can have larger impacts.

The Sixers have guys like Tobias Harris, who remains an enigma but a well-known player nonetheless, Kelly Oubre, another solid player, and Nicolas Batum, who is coming off a monster game against the Heat.

Meanwhile, the Knicks have a solid core of role players themselves with guys like OG Anunoby, Isaiah Hartenstein, Deuce McBride, and Bojan Bogdanovic.

If Embiid and Brunson—as many are predicting—more or less cancel each other out, this series could come down to which team’s role players can step up the most.

Knicks vs. 76ers: 5 Predictions

1. Hartenstein’s impact will become more widely recognized

With Embiid being such a force and focal point of the 76ers offense, Hartenstein will be relied on heavily to take on the very difficult task of slowing him down.

While Hartenstein likely won’t be able to completely stop him, I think he does enough, both on Embiid and on offense, to make a name for himself amongst the more casual NBA viewers much like Mitchell Robinson did last year when he completely dominated the Cleveland Cavaliers.

2. McBride will have a larger role and impact than some believe

McBride seemed to match up pretty well against Maxey during the regular season.

I think that there will be a couple of games, especially if he is hitting his shots, where he will see extended minutes and potentially even close games out, which is something we couldn’t have possibly imagined five months ago.

3. Bojan Bogdanovic will come through

Bogdanovic spent much of his first few weeks as a Knicks being bombarded with criticisms and rightfully so. He was horrendous defensively on most nights, couldn’t buy a bucket, and wasn’t contributing elsewhere. But over the last couple of weeks, he started to look much better and was looking more confident and comfortable.

Now, there were reports earlier this week about some wrist pain he was experiencing but I think he has at least one big game, kind of like the one he had against the 76ers earlier in the regular season.

4. Embiid and Maxey will single-handedly win a game by themselves

Both are All-Stars for a reason and the former is a perennial MVP candidate and undeniably a top-five player in the world.

It will be frustrating at times for Knicks fans to watch but know that they have the ability to, and likely will have moments where they completely take over.

5. Knicks win the series 4-2

Knowing how good the 76ers were with Embiid, you can’t count them out. But between how the Knicks played the 76ers during the regular season, Embiid’s playoff struggles, questionable knees, and the Knicks’ overall play over the last couple of weeks, I think they have a real shot at winning this series. I think Brunson comes up huge, but that’s almost expected at this point.

I think this will be a series where the national media and the casual non-Knicks NBA fans get to really witness just how good Anunoby, Hartenstein, DiVinecenzo, and Hart are.

Let us know about your thoughts in the comments section below, and Go Knicks!