Analyzing the Cleveland Cavaliers most likely playoff opponents

The Cleveland Cavaliers have clinched a spot in the NBA playoffs for the second straight season. But who they will face in round one is yet to be determined.

The final day of the NBA’s regular season is sure to be a good one. Numerous teams are deadlocked in a tight race for seedings in both conferences. As far as the Cavs are concerned, six teams are jockeying for positions that will directly affect them.

The New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, and Cavs are still battling for seeds two through four. The Cavs do not control their destiny here — as they will need the Bucks and Knicks to lose for Cleveland to finish second in the conference. At worst, the Cavs will finish in fourth with homecourt advantage for round one.

On the other side of things, the Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, and Orlando Magic will wrestle for seeds five through eight. Each team will be desperate to avoid the Play-In Tournament. Each has a chance of being matched up with the Cavaliers based on how things shake out Saturday.

According to Playoffstatus.com, the Cavs' most likely opponent is the Pacers with a 63% likelihood. There is a steep drop-off for second, with the 76ers posing a 15% chance of matching with the Cavaliers. The Magic hold a 12% chance, while the Heat have just a 9% probability of facing Cleveland in the first round.

Indiana would be an ideal opponent for the Cavs. The Pacers are just 24th in defensive rating this season and pose less of a threat to stimy the Cavaliers' offense. While Indiana is the highest-scoring team in the league — Cleveland’s defense has long been their identity. They have been more consistent on this end of the floor throughout the season and would likely find it easier to defend a high-scoring team than be tasked with scoring against a stronger defensive opponent.

Another benefit to drawing the Pacers is their youth. This would be the first playoff berth for many members of the Pacers, including their star Tyrese Haliburton. The Cavs know as well as anyone how rough a playoff debut can be for young stars. They’d surely prefer this type of opponent compared to an experienced team such as the Heat.

Orlando falls into the same category as Indiana. An inexperienced team that would be easier to talk yourself into beating. However, the Magic are a stout defensive team that could exploit Cleveland’s inconsistent scoring output. Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac are not two defenders the Cavs would be eager to face.

Sticking out is the 16% chance of drawing Joel Embiid and the 76ers in round one. This would be a worst-case scenario for the Cavs as Philly appeared to be the second-best team in the conference when healthy. The reigning MVP, Embiid, is averaging 34.7 points and 11 rebounds in just 33.6 minutes per game this season.

Nonetheless, Cleveland will be expected to compete against any of their potential opponents. There’s no more time for excuses. The playoffs begin on April 20.