Assessing the rest of the Knicks’ regular season schedule

After a frustrating three game slide, the New York Knicks are facing the most pivotal stretch of the regular season. Seven games remain on the schedule, and at 44-31, the team’s performance over these next games determine whether the Knicks are playing in the play-in tournament or are hosting a playoff series of their own.

There are only five games that separate the two through seven seeds in the East. Looking ahead, the Knicks are three games back of the Bucks in second place, and one and half games back of the third-seeded Cavaliers. The Magic are currently tied with the Knicks, but due to them having the tiebreaker, they secure the fourth spot instead of New York.

Conversely, the Pacers sit a game and a half behind the Knicks as the six seed, and the Heat a half game behind them at the seven. Phew. That’s a logjam if I’ve ever seen one.

Play well in these next seven games, and the Knicks could be hosting a first round series. Play poorly, and the Knicks could find themselves facing the unthinkable - hosting a play-in game.

With OG Anunoby and Julius Randle facing unclear recovery timelines (still), Josh Hart said the quiet part out loud. “”I’m looking at it like this is the team we’re going to have,” Hart said. “”I think that’s how we have to approach it, that those guys aren’t coming back and obviously we’ll be pleasantly surprised if they come back.” Yikes.

Operating under that assumption, the rest of the Knicks’ schedule is definitely a mixed bag. Let’s take a game by game look at what’s remaining.

Thursday, April 4th - vs. Sacramento

The Kings also sit at 44-31, but their reality in the West is far different. Sacramento is the seven seed in the West, and is fighting for their lives to stay out of the play-in tournament. DeAaron Fox is one of the best guards in the league, and Domantas Sabonis has been having another underrated season.

That being said, the Knicks beat this team in Sacramento just a few weeks ago, on March 16th. Brunson’s 42 led New York to victory. This game will be pivotal for the Knicks, but playing at home should help.

ESPN analytics: Knicks have a 74.0% chance of winning

Friday, April 5th - at Chicago

The last road trip of the season gets underway, with the Knicks traveling to Chicago for the first of three matchups with the Bulls in the last six games of the season. Weird scheduling quirk. But a welcome one! Chicago sits at 36-40, and has clinched a berth in the play-in tournament already. Zach Lavine is out for the year, so DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic have been leading the way. The Knicks took game one of the season series back in January, 116-100, and this is a must win game for New York against an inferior team. That being said, this is the second half of a back to back. Can the Knicks keep their legs under them?

ESPN analytics: Knicks have a 55.1% chance of winning

Sunday, April 7th - at Milwaukee

Yikes. The Knicks and Bucks got to know each other very well during the in-season tournament, with the Knicks dropping two of their IST games to Milwaukee. They got their revenge on Christmas day, though, with Jalen Brunson posting a 38-point masterclass. Giannis and Dame have been doing their thing in Cream City, and while they’ve slipped slightly under the leadership of Doc Rivers, they remain 29-8 at home. This will be an uphill battle.

ESPN analytics: Knicks have a 47.5% chance of winning

Tuesday, April 9th - at Chicago

Our old friends! Long time no see. The Bulls are 4-6 in their last 10. They’re a team right below .500. With the Knicks rested, there should be no excuses here.

ESPN analytics: Knicks have a 64.2% chance of winning

Thursday, April 11th - at Boston

Boston is 32-3 at home. They’re 4-0 against us this season. They have the best roster in the NBA, the best odds to win the championship, and clinched the one-seed in the East a couple years ago. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis (gross) are poised to make a title run. Pencil this one in as a loss.

ESPN analytics: Knicks have a 17.1% chance of winning

Friday, April 12th - vs. Brooklyn

I don’t like using the term, but this is a true trap game for the Knicks. New York is 3-0 this year against their cross-town rivals, and the Nets have been flailing as of late, going 3-7 in their last 10. Mikal Bridges hasn’t taken the jump some expected, and Cam Thomas hands whatever buckets he gets back on the defensive end of the floor. In the constant battle for seed placement, the Knicks need every single win. They have to keep the intensity up in a game that they should, by all means, win easily.

ESPN analytics: Knicks have a 80.5% chance of winning

Sunday, April 14th - vs. Chicago

It’s the same Bulls team you’ve heard twice about already. This is game 82, so maybe they’ll open up the rotation a little, having already clinched a play-in spot. The Knicks will need a dub here. It’s at home. Let’s finish the regular season off on the right note.

ESPN analytics: Knicks have a 78.2% chance of winning

So… where does that leave us?

Let’s say the Knicks go 2-1 against the Bulls. They beat the Nets, lose to the Celtics, and win one of their two games against the Bucks and Kings. That leaves us at 4-3 in our last seven games. 48-34. Nothing to scoff at. But it remains to be seen if it’ll be good enough for a top-4 seed.

Only time will tell if the Knicks do enough to receive a top seed. But with some winnable games in this last stretch of the season, the Knicks don’t have any wiggle room. The time to win is now.