What to expect when Julius Randle returns to the court for the Knicks

For the last 23 games, the New York Knicks have been treading water since Julius Randle dislocated his right shoulder. The squad has grinded their way to a 12-11 record, bringing them to 41-28 on the season. And after last night’s loss at Denver, New York has fallen to the fifth seed in the East, with the Orlando Magic jumping them last night.

It’s fair to say that the team’s postseason hopes rely on the recovery and overall health of their injured starters. While Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby are both massive contributors to the New York squad, there may be no bigger X-factor in determining the Knicks’ playoff run than Julius Randle.

The team’s offense has been significantly worse since his injury. In the 46 games Randle played, the Knicks averaged 115.4 PPG, and had a much more efficient offense. In 23 games without him, the Knicks have been averaging 104.9 PPG, more than a ten point dropoff.

Randle was enjoying another strong season, averaging 24.0 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. Despite shooting below his career average from three, he was shooting 47.2% from the field, his highest mark in his five years as a Knick. His relentless aggression and bullying style of play gave the Knicks a true warrior on both ends of the floor. Randle received his third career all-star selection prior to the injury, and having him at full health could propel the Knicks ceiling to the Eastern Conference Finals.

There’s only one issue.

Even if he’s back, what should we expect?

Julius Randle has had a history of playing below expectations come playoff time. When the magical 2020-21 season came to an end at the hands of Trae Young, fans were left wondering which Monstar stole his talent. Randle shot below 30% from the field, 33% from three, and the Knicks were sent packing.

Last year, Randle missed the final five games of the regular season with an ankle injury. Fans were left wondering what to expect after his only other playoff appearance, and unfortunately, results were disappointing again. In the series win against the Cavaliers, he posted 14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on 33/24/70 shooting. That’s even worse than the series prior. His volume went up slightly against the Heat in the following series, but he was still unable to recapture his shooting stroke, shooting 28% from deep on nearly six and a half attempts per game. The Knicks lost the series, and now we’re here.

There’s still not a clear timetable on when Julius Randle will be back on the floor. The great Fred Katz reported for The Athletic that internal conversations within the organization have been mixed. “Randle wants to play, but if the pain chips away his quality so much that he becomes a burden, should he?” The Knicks’ staff is trying to find the right balance between pushing him back to action and treading cautiously, and the longer Randle stays off the court, the less likely it may be for him to assume form once he gets back to the court.

It seems as if Randle might not be at 100% even if he is able to suit up for the playoffs. Last year, we saw his ankle impact his performance on the court. Similar things could be in store this year even if he is able to play. Jumping straight into playoff action is hard for any player to do, let alone one that requires the defensive attention that Randle does.

The importance of a couple tune up games for Julius Randle can not be overstated. It’s important that Randle is healthy for the playoffs. But if Randle is playing through pain and looks like a shell of himself, he could end up doing the team more harm than good.

We’ve all seen the ups and downs of his game, and fans know how important Julius Randle is to the team’s long-term success. That being said, if Randle doesn’t take five or six games at the end of the regular season to get back into game shape, that could spell some real trouble for the Knicks.