Hard questions about the Knicks playoff rotation

With both Julius Randle and OG Anunoby out of the rotation since the January 27th matchup against the Miami Heat, the Knicks have had to look elsewhere for production.

Replacing the offensive numbers Randle was putting up (24 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 5 APG) is incredibly difficult if not outright impossible, as is replicating the kind of elite defensive ability and versatility that Anunoby possesses. That being said, the Knicks have been able to stay afloat in the 14 games they’ve played without the aforementioned starters, going 6-8 in those contests and holding on for dear life to the no. 4 seed in the East.

A lot of that is because of the Villanova trio of Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, and Josh Hart leveling up. Brunson, unsurprisingly, has been nothing short of elite, keeping this offense afloat with his otherworldly offense management and leadership. DiVincenzo has been one of the best shooters in the league in 2024. And Hart has reverted to the key plug-in and do-it-all type of player that the Knicks traded for and signed to an extension last summer.

But there are two other players we cannot forget about: Precious Achiuwa and Deuce McBride.

The development and stepping up of these two unexpected role players have also played a crucial part in helping the Knicks stay afloat, and it cannot be understated just how important they have been as of late. Even with Brunson, DiVincenzo, and Hart doing what they have been doing, were it not for the improved play of Achiuwa and McBride, there’s a good chance the Knicks could be sitting in the seventh or eighth place instead of the fourth right now.

Looked at as just a throw-in piece in the Anunoby trade, Achiuwa struggled in his first few games in New York. The big man showed some potential but numerous plays left fans scratching their head and pulling their hair out, and it showed in the stats as well. In his first ten games as a Knick, Achiuwa averaged just 2.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 0.6 BPG in 11.7 MPG. But out of nowhere, something seemed to click for him.

The former Raptor bought into Tom Thibodeau’s system and seemingly reinvented himself on the fly. Since the Randle and Anunoby injuries, in 18 games, Achiuwa is averaging 12.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 1.8 BPG in 36.5 MPG. While his skillset and fit can be clunky at times and his offense can still look somewhat awkward, there’s no denying the overall positive impact he has had on the team when on the floor.

The same can be said about McBride. Like Achiuwa, it took McBride a while to get going, but once he was given a larger opportunity, he seized it and he’s not looked back since.

Since the Heat game, the backup point guard is averaging 9.4 PPG, 2.2 APG, and 1.1 SPG while shooting 40.1% from the field and 34.1% from three. While McBride’s numbers may not look as glamorous as his frontcourt counterpart’s, Deuce has supplemented his much-improved offensive numbers with his usual stellar defensive play and has been a positive and stable presence in what has been an injury-riddled roster.

Now, while all of this is great news for the Knicks and their fans, it does bring up an interesting question and potential problem: What will the rotation look like in the playoffs?

Assuming the team gets fully healthy by the postseason in mid-April, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Anunoby, Randle, Robinson, Hart, and Hartenstein will be locks to get consistent playoff minutes. Knowing that Thibodeau likes to keep his rotation at around nine (at most) for the regular season and that it sometimes even gets shortened in the playoffs, we’re now looking at four players—Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Achiuwa, and McBride.

Burks, given his abysmal play of late, seems like the easy man out. If there’s an injury to one of the bench guys, or if Burks somehow finds his groove, it’s not implausible to see him getting playoff minutes. As things stand right now, however, he has to be the first one out.

Now, this is where it starts to get difficult. You can make a case, and a countercase, for the other three guys left.

Burks’ Detroit teammate, Bogdanovic, has been, and will continue to be a below-average defender, but he offers the kind of spacing, shot creation, and shot making that is unmatched by anyone on the Knicks bench. Because of the offensive weaknesses of the second unit, he likely has the clearest path to finding playoff minutes.

McBride, as we mentioned earlier, is a great defender who has become a much-improved shooter. But he can struggle to guard taller players because of his short stature. That, along with his inability to be a full-time backup ballhandler, shot creator, and offensive initiator, could lead to him being the other odd man out.

Achiuwa, as great as he’s been, is just as imperfect and flawed as McBride is. He’s been an amazing player whose defensive versatility, switchability, rebounding, and rim protection have been so important. However, considering his offensive limitations are very clear and given that the offense tends to slow down in the playoffs and the defense is more intense with opposing coaches having more time to game plan, he may be unplayable in certain matchups and situations, especially if he has to share the floor with Hartenstein or Robinson.

Don’t get me wrong; these are all good problems to have. I’d much rather have options and too much depth than a lack of options and frantically struggling to find rotational players. But it is a problem nonetheless. And it’s a problem that I’m glad I’m not in charge of figuring out because it really is a difficult one to solve.

Both Deuce and Achiuwa have worked extremely hard and have been consummate professionals who truly deserve the chance to contribute in the playoffs, but it feels like one of them will be left out. With no clear-cut option, I do think it will simply come down to matchups. Who are they playing and what does the game call for? Maybe it’s a game-by-game, feel-it-out kind of thing, maybe it’s a platoon kind of thing, or maybe Thibodeau already knows who he’ll go with. I’m really not sure.

But with the team finally starting to get healthier, this should be one of the major things to keep an eye on going forward and ahead of the playoffs.