This is not to discount those ghosts of the Miami Heat, those scary figures of Erik Spoelstra with his arms crossed and Jimmy Butler roaming the paint for a play to break the Knicks’ back.
The Heat, no matter how much they treat the regular season like a long trip on one of Micky Arison’s Carnival Cruises, are formidable after their annual winter hibernation. In the previous four years, Spoelstra, Butler and Bam Adebayo stacked up with any trio once the pollen covered the Northeast.
But this isn’t the same Heat. The roster has changed rather dramatically and not for the better (I’ll get into this later).
Butler, by the way, is now 34 years old and showing signs of it.
As crazy as it sounds after the Knicks were eliminated last year in South Beach, their clear rooting interest for Wednesday’s play-in game between Miami and Philadelphia — with the winner heading to face the Knicks in the first round — should be the Heat.
And the main reason, which is so obvious it feels lame to type, is Joel Embiid. The reigning MVP was having his best season before undergoing knee surgery, and he returned to propel the Sixers back into the contending conversation. Philly, which hosts the Heat, is a completely different team when Embiid is in uniform, a bona fide threat in the East.
Its record with Embiid this season? 31-8.
Without? 16-27.
That’s the difference between the second seed and the draft lottery.
“[The Knicks] have no answer for Joel,” a longtime NBA executive said.
OG Anunoby, acquired as a catch-all solution to the Knicks’ defensive equations, is probably too small to regularly bang with Embiid. The 6-foot-7, 220-pound Anunoby is also too big to chase around 6-2, 200-pound Tyrese Maxey for 30-plus minutes.
Anunoby can switch to guard those players off screens, but the main Embiid assignment would likely fall on Isaiah Hartenstein — while Donte DiVincenzo gets the Maxey duty.
The Post polled three NBA insiders — including a scout and a coach — and they all picked the Heat as the preferred matchup for the Knicks. Neither opponent is ideal but the Sixers are less so.
To be clear, the Knicks, armed with home-court advantage and riding a five-game winning streak, will still be the favorites against Philly. Even assuming a healthy Embiid — which is never a given, by the way — I’d pick the Knicks in 6 or 7. I just wouldn’t bet my Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card on it.
Spoelstra is the NBA’s top coach. He turns margarine into wedding cakes (apologies to margarines Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson.)
But 76ers coach Nick Nurse is hardly a slouch. In fact, if I were ranking the top-three coaches in the Eastern Conference, the list would include Spoelstra, Nurse and Tom Thibodeau. One of the best offseason upgrades, often overlooked, was Philadelphia swapping Doc Rivers for Nurse.
The Heat never had coaching problems, but personnel is an issue. They can’t score when it matters. Tyler Herro, who was supposed to be a huge lift to the offense after missing last year’s playoffs, has been a dud in the clutch while shooting 37 percent in fourth quarters. The Heat, not coincidentally, own the Eastern Conference’s worst net rating in fourth quarters. They’ve clammed up.
Can they flip a switch in the playoffs? Sure. Miami has done it before. As Spoelstra said Sunday, “The playoffs will let us know.”
But the Heat are not as good after essentially swapping Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Kyle Lowry for Herro, Terry Rozier — who will miss Wednesday’s game with a neck injury — and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
They beat the Knicks in the playoffs last year because, among other reasons, they dominated the bench minutes. That advantage is gone. Even back then, the Heat couldn’t stop Jalen Brunson, who averaged 31 points in the Eastern Conference semis.
The Sixers? They lost thrice to the Knicks this season but held Brunson to 22.2 points per game on 40.3 percent shooting. Kelly Oubre was a pest.
Like the Knicks, the Sixers are better than a year ago. Most of that is tied to Embiid, who is operating on a surgically repaired knee and sat out Sunday’s season finale. He was a full participant in Monday’s practice, and it’s hard to imagine the 30-year-old will sit out Wednesday’s game.
If the Knicks must face Embiid in the first round, they could try to run him into exhaustion — which worked in a blowout Knicks victory at Wells Fargo Center in January (the only time Embiid played against the Knicks this season) — but the half-court game, often more prominent in the playoffs when the pace slows, presents a problem for Thibodeau.
Embiid’s ability to hit outside shots draws Knicks centers away from the basket, and the Knicks prefer a drop coverage because rim protection is high on the Thibs’ Commandments. Embiid, if at full strength and hitting his shots, destroys that shape.
He’s a handful the Knicks want to avoid. It’s a rare time their fans should be rooting for the Heat.
