There’s typically not much to project into the playoffs from individual regular-season matchups. The Knicks beat the Heat three of four times last season, for instance, then dropped four of six when it really, really mattered.
That’s especially true when one of the teams, the Knicks, is missing three difference-makers because of injuries. So though it was disappointing Saturday for the Knicks to get bombed again by the Celtics, 116-102, it did nothing to answer the question of how they’d stack up with OG Anunoby, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson on the court.
Maybe we’ll find out in May. Maybe the Knicks won’t even get to that month. Just like Randle’s recovery timeline, this is all fluid.
Regardless, there comes a point in the building process when the state of the competition is significant. That’s where those darn Celtics come into play. Boston has hoarded talent with a core still in its 20s, most notably 25-year-old Jayson Tatum. A run for Leon Rose’s construction, if not this season then somewhere down the line, will inevitably run into Boston.
The Knicks can thank the Nets for trading Danny Ainge the draft picks he used for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
“I’m going to take our roster and our team over anybody in the league,” Knicks forward Josh Hart said beforehand. “That’s the mentality you have to have. I think once we get back healthy and in full swing then everyone gets accustomed to playing with each other, I think we can beat any team.”
We like the confidence but … is it true? Can the Knicks emerge from the East, or at least reach the conference finals? It remains a longshot — let’s get to 50 wins first — but we’ll still take a look at the three biggest obstacles in their way:
The competition
As mentioned, the Celtics are the biggest problem but hardly invincible. Tatum and Brown still have much to prove in the postseason, having disappeared in the biggest moments or struggled with poor decision making. Holiday gives them a major boost for the playoffs (he’s clutch) and is the East’s best answer to stopping Jalen Brunson. It’s a problematic matchup for the Knicks, as Saturday night reiterated with the Celtics moving to 4-0 against their division rivals. If we’re going to criticize Leon Rose for anything last summer, it’s not making a big push to acquire Holiday. He’s a winner.
Coach Tom Thibodeau’s squad would also be underdogs against the Bucks, who are top-heavy with talent but reeling under new coach Doc Rivers. It’s been really bad over there. Word is they were intent on hiring a former player to coach after firing Adrian Griffin, but Rivers was the wrong call.
After those two teams, the Knicks are part of a pick ’em field with the Cavaliers (who they beat in last year’s playoffs), the Heat (never count out Eric Spoelstra/Jimmy Butler), the 76ers (need Joel Embiid back for any chance) and the Pacers (young and plucky).
Health
We’ve beaten this topic to death, but I’ll add something different here:
With Randle, in particular, it’s not just about being available, it’s about being healthy. We know he’s committed to playing through pain and is rehabbing with ferocity. Saturday, he worked himself into a lather on the Garden court a few hours before tipoff. He’s preparing to play despite the threat of surgery if there’s a setback. But there comes a point when forcing appearances for Randle — like last year’s dud in the playoffs — becomes a detriment.
He doesn’t play well when frustrated or struggling with his offense. That’s been Randle’s history and diminished Randle, gutting and struggling through pain, isn’t putting the Knicks over the top.
Brunson’s mortality
It’s important to note that the rest of the roster is in a better position to succeed in the playoffs than last season. Newcomers Anunoby, Donte DiVincenzo and Bojan Bogdanovic all have extensive experience. The rest of the roster is a year older now. They’ll know what to expect.
But the Knicks will go as far as Brunson takes them. They need megastar stuff. He was brilliant last year and will shoulder a larger burden as defenses adjust to that brilliance. Underestimating Brunson has been a losing proposition, but he’s no longer catching teams by surprise. Defenders are picking him up all 94 feet, and there’s only so much a 6-foot-1 point guard can do without much help. Like Saturday. Brunson scored 34 points and his teammates offered no help.
