After scoring their first playoff series win in a decade, the Knicks face a tricky test in the second round against the Heat, who are fresh off one of the biggest upsets in NBA postseason history.
Oddsmakers are once again skeptical of Miami’s chances, pricing the eighth-seeded Heat as underdogs to advance against the fifth-seeded Knicks in a matchup with a distinct throwback appeal between two physical teams with compelling postseason history.
Here’s how we’d approach this series from a betting perspective (with odds courtesy of BetMGM) ahead of Game 1 on Sunday afternoon.
Case for the Knicks (-145)
You can’t write about the Knicks this season without starting with Jalen Brunson, who has carried this group offensively amid teammate Julius Randle’s struggles.
After signing a big deal this summer, the fifth-year guard earned his keep in the first round, slicing through the Cavaliers’ top-ranked defense for a team-high 24 points per game.
He also led his team with 4.8 assists and 2.2 steals per contest while playing the most minutes (188) of any player on the Knicks.
That said, the Knicks’ defense has been central to their success in these playoffs.
The Cavaliers’ lowly 101.9 offensive rating was the worst among all 16 playoff teams in the opening round, as center Mitchell Robinson (2.2 blocks per game) reestablished himself as one of the best defensive anchors in the NBA.
Case for the Heat (+120)
Is anyone playing better than Jimmy Butler right now?
The six-time All-Star played arguably the best basketball of his career to spark that monumental upset over the Bucks, averaging 37.6 points with 64.1 percent efficiency inside the arc and 44.4 percent shooting from 3-point range.
His 56 points in Game 5 set a new franchise record, and his 42 points in Game 6 included a circus shot that sent the game to overtime and ultimately ended Milwaukee’s season.
His offensive game is perfectly suited to exploit the physical defensive approach of his twice-former head coach Tom Thibodeau.
Meanwhile, his own defensive prowess will present Brunson with more challenges than he faced from the likes of Darius Garland, Caris LeVert and company.
Miami’s success in Round 2 will ultimately come down to the strength of the shooters around Butler.
The Heat shot just 34.4 percent from 3 in the regular season (fourth-worst in the NBA), but buried a ridiculous 45 percent of their shots from deep in the first round.
The answer in this matchup likely falls somewhere in between and just may determine the series.
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Which team should you bet?
I’m sorry to say it, Knicks fans: The road could end here.
The Knicks are understandably favored after a more impressive regular season and because they have the benefit of home-court advantage.
That said, I’m buying this version of the Heat, which feels awfully similar to what we’ve seen from them over the last few years.
It’s easy to forget that just last season, Miami was the No. 1 seed in the East and reached the conference finals.
That came two years after the Heat reached the NBA Finals with a similar cast of characters to this group.
And neither of those teams enjoyed quite the same superhuman efforts that we’ve seen from Butler over the last two weeks.
While the Knicks deserve credit for an impressive first-round victory, it came against a team far less seasoned than the Heat.
Miami won’t be rattled by a raucous crowd at Madison Square Garden in the same way that Cleveland clearly was in Round 1.
I’m also concerned about the cloud hanging over Randle, who has been hampered by an ankle injury that could cost him playing time in this series, too.
If he can’t regain his All-Star form, that will put immense pressure on Brunson to carry this group against a tenacious Heat defense.
It all adds up to clear value on the Heat as the plus-money side, as this feels much closer to a 50/50 proposition than the betting market suggests.