fishmike wrote:what is the long term implications of Brunson at $27mm for 4 years vs. Brunson at $20mm for 4 years? Like what's happening in 2-3 years that has us now phucked because we overpaid this guy by whatever?

I love capology semantics. Any other team signs Brunson to 4 years $110 million it’s not even a story. Knicks do it and it’s the end of the world

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Caseloads wrote:

Uptown wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

TheGame wrote:

wargames wrote:

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/LegionHoops/status/1541963788299055104

In typical Knicks fashion they got second rounders back

This is great trade for Detroit. They get two solid veterans for cheap on expiring deals. The vets can help their youth and the Pistons will have the option of trading Burks at the deadline for a pick.

As for us, we have all the cap space we need to sign Brunson and we did not have to give up much to do it.

It’s too much cap space for just Brunson. Might be a bit more to this.

Word is. they are going to offer Brunson 110 mil now...

way too much of an overpay

its just not. I dont even love Brunson but its not an overpay

Just to put it into perspective, a 4/110 contract for Jalen Brunson would make him the 39th highest paid player in the NBA next season
http://www.espn.com/nba/salaries

At 27.5m, he would be 39th, right ahead of Al Horford and right behind Jayson Tatum

If you think Brunson is a top 40 player in the NBA it's a fair contract. I don't have a list of my top 40 players but I can't imagine Brunson isn't on it or at least close to it. Don't really get the "what an overpay" comments

The above is not from me.. its from Reddit but its spot on IMO for perspective. Brunson is also 26 when he starts playing for us. Literally the best years. He will make Randle better, is a sniper from the corner and is a hard playing tough kid. Very Lowry like. Knick fans will love him. Its a year late but this is a good use of cap space... Brunson is a high EFF% floor general. He's small. I would love to add a big defnesive SF and move RJ to SG but thats for another thread

I think you are over-generalizing to make the number sound good. But I don't agree. I don't want to trash Brunson, I just don't think 27mm is supported by his numbers. Your analysis is too generalized to be accurate. He is not a top 40 player today by any standards. What percentage of those other 39 contracts are overpays? What percentage are HOF? What percentage are 5th year players coming off of 4 year contracts and not an RFA? You can't just presume he is top 40 and then pay him like that. That's an overpay. It may earn out over time, but today its an overpay. He doesn't have the resume.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/valuation/2021/guard/gmpct-25/active/

I don't love this contract value model from Spotrac - it only uses flat productivity numbers to create value, but it equates productivity to games played and productivity in the games played. It doesn't penalize for missed games as much as I might in determining salary. It won't speak to starter vs bench player, only productivity and then that relates back to contract - obviously rookie scale and vet minimum contracts create exceptional production value despite not being a "better" player.

I think you need to look at contracts for players in similar situations with similar production to get comparative valuation. FVV's extension may make Brunson's price seem right, but FVV is better and more productive. I think the first step for Brunson is a 20mm contract - like FVV, not a 27mm contract. FVV has a ring and got his raise after performing at 20mm. Lonzo Ball got 20mm. Rozier got 18mm. Rozier got 18mm. I would use this chart to find guards with similar productivity at the price you want to pay them and then compare that to the contract value. By doing that, a Lonzo Ball at 20mm is a better value than Brunson at 20mm. At 27mm, he is not good value by this metric.

By current production alone, he's not even a top 40 guard. So anything over 17-18mm is paying for potential. With the right players surrounding him, I would go above 17mm, but not until someone takes Murray off the table at 16mm. For potential, maybe you predict the increased production based on increased minutes. But I don't think you can get from 17mm of face value to 27mm without significantly overpaying.

I don't know where these numbers are coming from and maybe the reporters are more tuned in, but the math doesn't really support the storyline, at least in my head. Those articles seem to be sensationalizing how much the Knicks can offer not how much they should. The fact that Charlotte doesn't want to give Miles Bridges 30mm with his much better size, age and positional scarcity should give anyone pause on their valuation.

who cares what Cha "wants" to pay Bridges and lets see what they do pay him.

Trash Brunson all you want... I have. He was not a guy I wanted to clear the roster for, but they really didnt do that. They flipped their role players from last year into a 26 year old sharp shooting floor general. He might not even be a top 10 PG in the conference.

BUT

He's really good and the Knicks get better, get younger and fill a position of need.

I understand there are less than ideal aspects of Brunson but when you look at cost/need/value this is a really easy signing for the Knicks. Really easy.

He's also a "culture" player. He will work incredible hard, play hard and he's also a big part of fixing Randle assuming Julius bounces back next (much to some fan's dismay).

All we are talking about is price. For me, Murray is the better opportunity. After that door closes, Brunson isn't perfect, I just don't want an AAV of 27.5mm per. I think we can spend our money better. Dallas' 4 for 85 is spot on. 5 for 110m might work if its a sign & trade.

Murray is better but they are way different costs. Brunson allows us to continue to be players in the draft. Maybe we are out of the lottery but this FO has done a great job filling in gaps and getting us players there. Murray is 3 FRPs and 3 swaps plus some players. Brunson is a do-over from the role players we signed last year that didnt work.

You trade for DM and that's your team. Part of what makes Brunson so attractive is we can continue to work our draft assets. DM takes us out of that entirely

3 FRPs and 3 Pick swaps would also be a pricing problem for me for Murray. But I disagree that that is my team if we get Murray. Depending on what we give up in the trade (it won't be a TPE) we are still in the running for a FA.

I am fine dumping any (all?) of these picks in connection with acquiring an All Star player like Murray via trade. Especially if they take back Fournier.

Detroit 2023
Washington 2023
Dallas 2023
Bucks 2025

You want a pick swap in 2023 also. No problem. I'll make that bet.

I guess before I lock up salary on Brunson, I want to shut the door on Murray and Bridges. And maybe the costs will be too high. But at this moment, a Murray/Bridges offseason would make me delirious.

Philc1 wrote:

fishmike wrote:what is the long term implications of Brunson at $27mm for 4 years vs. Brunson at $20mm for 4 years? Like what's happening in 2-3 years that has us now phucked because we overpaid this guy by whatever?

I love capology semantics. Any other team signs Brunson to 4 years $110 million it’s not even a story. Knicks do it and it’s the end of the world

Burks at 9.7mm turned out to be a good contract. I didn't think he was worth more than $7mm. He earned out. Kemba at 9 was not worth it. Noel at 8.7 was a good deal in my mind. It was at best a push. A few million dollars one way or the other speaks to its trade value (liquidation value) going forward. Burks at 13mm is probably hard to move. Bullock at 10mm is easily traded. I don't think we offered more than 8m.

With $37mm in free agency money, 21mm to Brunson means they have 16m to offer another player. 27.5 means they have 11 and are competing with teams holding the MLE for a Free Agent.

Capology is counting nickels and collecting rounding errors. Managing exceptions and expectations. Texas has no state income tax. NY - NYC has a hefty income tax. So, apples to apples the Knicks have to overpay Dallas' bid for him by like 2.5mm just to net him the exact same dollars. But you still can't overpay or you can't move the contract after if you need to.

EwingsGlass wrote:

Philc1 wrote:

fishmike wrote:what is the long term implications of Brunson at $27mm for 4 years vs. Brunson at $20mm for 4 years? Like what's happening in 2-3 years that has us now phucked because we overpaid this guy by whatever?

I love capology semantics. Any other team signs Brunson to 4 years $110 million it’s not even a story. Knicks do it and it’s the end of the world

Burks at 9.7mm turned out to be a good contract. I didn't think he was worth more than $7mm. He earned out. Kemba at 9 was not worth it. Noel at 8.7 was a good deal in my mind. It was at best a push. A few million dollars one way or the other speaks to its trade value (liquidation value) going forward. Burks at 13mm is probably hard to move. Bullock at 10mm is easily traded. I don't think we offered more than 8m.

With $37mm in free agency money, 21mm to Brunson means they have 16m to offer another player. 27.5 means they have 11 and are competing with teams holding the MLE for a Free Agent.

Capology is counting nickels and collecting rounding errors. Managing exceptions and expectations. Texas has no state income tax. NY - NYC has a hefty income tax. So, apples to apples the Knicks have to overpay Dallas' bid for him by like 2.5mm just to net him the exact same dollars. But you still can't overpay or you can't move the contract after if you need to.

Capology is overanalyzing contracts for good players that improve the team. Brunson isn’t worth $25 million a year but Russell Westbrook is worth $47 million, and Demar Derozan who we got ripped for not signing is worth $27 million next year when he’s 33 and can’t hit an open 3

EwingsGlass wrote:

Philc1 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

Philc1 wrote:

fishmike wrote:what is the long term implications of Brunson at $27mm for 4 years vs. Brunson at $20mm for 4 years? Like what's happening in 2-3 years that has us now phucked because we overpaid this guy by whatever?

I love capology semantics. Any other team signs Brunson to 4 years $110 million it’s not even a story. Knicks do it and it’s the end of the world

Burks at 9.7mm turned out to be a good contract. I didn't think he was worth more than $7mm. He earned out. Kemba at 9 was not worth it. Noel at 8.7 was a good deal in my mind. It was at best a push. A few million dollars one way or the other speaks to its trade value (liquidation value) going forward. Burks at 13mm is probably hard to move. Bullock at 10mm is easily traded. I don't think we offered more than 8m.

With $37mm in free agency money, 21mm to Brunson means they have 16m to offer another player. 27.5 means they have 11 and are competing with teams holding the MLE for a Free Agent.

Capology is counting nickels and collecting rounding errors. Managing exceptions and expectations. Texas has no state income tax. NY - NYC has a hefty income tax. So, apples to apples the Knicks have to overpay Dallas' bid for him by like 2.5mm just to net him the exact same dollars. But you still can't overpay or you can't move the contract after if you need to.

Capology is overanalyzing contracts for good players that improve the team. Brunson isn’t worth $25 million a year but Russell Westbrook is worth $47 million, and Demar Derozan who we got ripped for not signing is worth $27 million next year when he’s 33 and can’t hit an open 3

Nope. Just because one person likes a transaction doesn't mean everyone does. What someone is paid and what their performance determines they should be paid changes over time. Westbrook's 47mm is a problem and it expiring on LAL is a problem. Capology tells us this. LAL needs to do something to pawn that off before it puts them underwater. Brunson at $25mm is is an overbid, but might be necessary to get him. I'm not the end all on valuation, but I don't think he is worth $25mm today. He could earn out or he could be a burdensome contract. At 20mm, I have no qualms.

Tooting my own horn, I valued Robinson at $15mm per several times over the year and that's pretty much where he is signing, if the articles are correct.

Looking like Brunson for 25mm and Bamba for 13mm are where we end up after waiving Gibson and waiving our TPEs.

Looking at the BYC issues, it doesn't seem like a S&T is plausible with Dallas. And Randle's trade kicker makes it hard to move him.

Don’t worry. Pat Riley will “save” the Knicks from the Brunson contract

wargames wrote:

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/1541961362636668928

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1541961750957940741

Nice 👌 to have cap space
..
However I don't know last time NYK did these things
And won 🏆 😎 to bring elite players , does anyone?

People aren't coming to this org, cause of 1 or 2 $$
Players or situations 🤔

You tell me that if NYK BRINGING IN:
Steph Curry
Kevin Durant
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kawhi Leonard,
A younger slightly LBJ
Etc.. etc etc

You get my drift?

NBA STARS aint following any other good players
Allstars or superstars which AINT GOT NO NBA
TITLE Resume..

That's my point.
Ny city pro NBA Knicks sadly irrelevant, its
A landing ground to make $$$$$$$$ for MSG brass
And those here who get $$$ irregardless of
0 NBA ring championships..

Folks KNOW what I preaching is correct here.
MSG Brass got it all wrong is issue

You need to plan FOR ALL them guys I've cited above in this post.

EwingsGlass wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:So correct me if I’m wrong but currently we have 38mil in cap and 29mil in TPE flexibility. We also can use Rose, Fournier or Randle in an S&T to offset salary coming back.

Leon has the flexibility to land 3 quality players with this flexibility.

Rose for Brunson(S&T)
Randle for Ayton(S&T)
Mitch, Reddish, draft pick for OG.

Ayton,Obi,OG,RJ,Brunson. 6th man Fournier

The $29m and the $38mm are essentially the same. You would need to waive the TPEs and Taj Gibson, release Ryan Arianciata's cap hold and complete the Jalen Duren trade to get to $38mm-ish in actual cap space. You are pretty close to a max offer on Zach Lavine there.

But, while the Detroit TPE(s) remain, you can use the other contracts to complete trades without waiving the TPE under the mere threat of being able to do it. So, its possible that the Knicks achieve some results in free agency without actually dipping below the cap.

The offseason got pretty exciting for me. Sounds like a lot more is brewing than Brunson alone. Maybe its Brunson and Bamba. But I hope we are doing our diligence on Miles Bridges.

I’m see. Thanks

EwingsGlass wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:So correct me if I’m wrong but currently we have 38mil in cap and 29mil in TPE flexibility. We also can use Rose, Fournier or Randle in an S&T to offset salary coming back.

Leon has the flexibility to land 3 quality players with this flexibility.

Rose for Brunson(S&T)
Randle for Ayton(S&T)
Mitch, Reddish, draft pick for OG.

Ayton,Obi,OG,RJ,Brunson. 6th man Fournier

The $29m and the $38mm are essentially the same. You would need to waive the TPEs and Taj Gibson, release Ryan Arianciata's cap hold and complete the Jalen Duren trade to get to $38mm-ish in actual cap space. You are pretty close to a max offer on Zach Lavine there.

But, while the Detroit TPE(s) remain, you can use the other contracts to complete trades without waiving the TPE under the mere threat of being able to do it. So, its possible that the Knicks achieve some results in free agency without actually dipping below the cap.

The offseason got pretty exciting for me. Sounds like a lot more is brewing than Brunson alone. Maybe its Brunson and Bamba. But I hope we are doing our diligence on Miles Bridges.

I’m see. Thanks

That Bridges comment didn’t age well at all.

Yeah. How much money did Bridges cause himself to lose fighting with some woman? Just walk away, don’t hit them. He probably lost $5 mil a year from what he could have gotten.

martin wrote:Perry for this win

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/ProperMIDDLEMAN/status/1542192515691970560

Those relationships require trust because both have an objective and its win if you can both achieve.
Perhaps Detroit goes after Ayton and our guys know the angle. We can back stab and undercut them, or use that against them to gain edge elsewhere. ITs cut throat.
Not a thing wrong with that but if two teams can help themselves achieve then its a win win.
We'll see how it shapes out and were it goes and more if it can execute properly. Sometimes it don't!!!!

don't come after Mitch and we'll help you get Duran?
Don't come after mitch and we'll halp you get Ayton?
Help us get Ayton, and you can have mitch? Etc etc......
Im just guessing here.